East Sussex: wards that bucked the trend
East Sussex: in 2021, 98 ward results beat the expected swing and 89 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Hailsham Market (+33.7 pts actual vs -2.0 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Hailsham Market | Liberal Democrats | +33.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +35.7 pts |
| 2021 | Crowborough North and Jarvis Brook | Conservative | -32.2 pts | -3.6 pts | -28.5 pts |
| 2021 | Ringmer and Lewes Bridge | Green | +36.5 pts | +9.6 pts | +26.9 pts |
| 2021 | Lewes | Green | +36.2 pts | +9.6 pts | +26.6 pts |
| 2021 | Wealden East | Green | +35.7 pts | +9.6 pts | +26.1 pts |
| 2021 | Chailey | Green | +32.8 pts | +9.6 pts | +23.2 pts |
| 2021 | Newhaven and Bishopstone | Conservative | +18.5 pts | -3.6 pts | +22.1 pts |
| 2021 | Telscombe | Labour | +19.7 pts | -1.5 pts | +21.2 pts |
| 2021 | Peacehaven | Labour | +19.5 pts | -1.5 pts | +21.1 pts |
| 2021 | Pevensey and Stone Cross | Liberal Democrats | +18.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +20.3 pts |
| 2021 | Crowborough North and Jarvis Brook | Liberal Democrats | +17.0 pts | -2.0 pts | +19.0 pts |
| 2021 | Old Hastings and Tressell | Labour | -20.4 pts | -1.5 pts | -18.9 pts |
| 2021 | Meads | Liberal Democrats | +15.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +17.2 pts |
| 2021 | Old Hastings and Tressell | Green | +26.8 pts | +9.6 pts | +17.1 pts |
| 2021 | Ouse Valley West and Downs | Conservative | +12.9 pts | -3.6 pts | +16.5 pts |
| 2021 | Bexhill North | Conservative | +12.9 pts | -3.6 pts | +16.5 pts |
| 2021 | Chailey | Conservative | -20.1 pts | -3.6 pts | -16.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bexhill West | Independent | -16.0 pts | -0.3 pts | -15.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bexhill South | Conservative | -18.4 pts | -3.6 pts | -14.8 pts |
| 2021 | Wealden North East | Conservative | -18.0 pts | -3.6 pts | -14.3 pts |
| 2021 | Arlington, East Hoathly and Hellingly | Conservative | -17.7 pts | -3.6 pts | -14.0 pts |
| 2021 | Ringmer and Lewes Bridge | Liberal Democrats | -16.0 pts | -2.0 pts | -14.0 pts |
| 2021 | Ratton | Liberal Democrats | +11.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +13.3 pts |
| 2021 | Bexhill West | Conservative | +9.6 pts | -3.6 pts | +13.2 pts |
| 2021 | Lewes | Liberal Democrats | +11.1 pts | -2.0 pts | +13.1 pts |
| 2021 | Hampden Park | Liberal Democrats | -14.1 pts | -2.0 pts | -12.1 pts |
| 2021 | Ouse Valley West and Downs | Liberal Democrats | -13.7 pts | -2.0 pts | -11.7 pts |
| 2021 | Meads | Conservative | -14.0 pts | -3.6 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2021 | St Anthony's | Conservative | +6.6 pts | -3.6 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2021 | Brede Valley and Marsham | Conservative | -13.6 pts | -3.6 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2021 | Crowborough South and St Johns | Conservative | -13.3 pts | -3.6 pts | -9.7 pts |
| 2021 | Wealden North East | Liberal Democrats | +7.6 pts | -2.0 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2021 | Bexhill East | Independent | +9.2 pts | -0.3 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2021 | Seaford North | Green | +19.1 pts | +9.6 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2021 | Uckfield South with Framfield | Conservative | -12.7 pts | -3.6 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2021 | Peacehaven | Green | +0.5 pts | +9.6 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2021 | Lewes | Conservative | +5.4 pts | -3.6 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2021 | Telscombe | Conservative | -12.4 pts | -3.6 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2021 | Newhaven and Bishopstone | Liberal Democrats | -10.6 pts | -2.0 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2021 | Ringmer and Lewes Bridge | Conservative | -12.3 pts | -3.6 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2021 | Meads | Green | +1.0 pts | +9.6 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2021 | Langney | Green | +1.1 pts | +9.6 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2021 | Rye and Eastern Rother | Green | +18.0 pts | +9.6 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2021 | Hampden Park | Conservative | +4.7 pts | -3.6 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2021 | Ratton | Green | +1.5 pts | +9.6 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2021 | Sovereign | Green | +1.6 pts | +9.6 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2021 | Crowborough South and St Johns | Liberal Democrats | +6.0 pts | -2.0 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2021 | Crowborough North and Jarvis Brook | Green | +1.6 pts | +9.6 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2021 | Uckfield North | Liberal Democrats | +5.9 pts | -2.0 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2021 | Heathfield and Mayfield | Conservative | -11.4 pts | -3.6 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2021 | Wealden North East | Labour | +6.2 pts | -1.5 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2021 | Newhaven and Bishopstone | Green | +1.9 pts | +9.6 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2021 | Devonshire | Conservative | +4.0 pts | -3.6 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2021 | Rother North West | Conservative | +3.8 pts | -3.6 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2021 | Braybrooke and Castle | Labour | -9.0 pts | -1.5 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2021 | Ouse Valley West and Downs | Green | +2.2 pts | +9.6 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2021 | Telscombe | Green | +2.2 pts | +9.6 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2021 | Central St Leonards and Gensing | Labour | -8.9 pts | -1.5 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2021 | Hampden Park | Green | +2.3 pts | +9.6 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2021 | Battle and Crowhurst | Liberal Democrats | +5.0 pts | -2.0 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2021 | Polegate and Watermill | Green | +2.8 pts | +9.6 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2021 | Chailey | Liberal Democrats | -8.8 pts | -2.0 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2021 | Langney | Conservative | +3.1 pts | -3.6 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2021 | Peacehaven | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.9 pts | -3.2 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2021 | Pevensey and Stone Cross | Conservative | +2.9 pts | -3.6 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2021 | Bexhill North | Liberal Democrats | +4.4 pts | -2.0 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2021 | St Anthony's | Liberal Democrats | -8.4 pts | -2.0 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2021 | Hollington and Wishing Tree | Conservative | +2.7 pts | -3.6 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Hailsham New Town | Liberal Democrats | +4.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Bexhill North | Labour | +4.7 pts | -1.5 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2021 | St Anthony's | Green | +3.4 pts | +9.6 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2021 | Central St Leonards and Gensing | Green | +15.7 pts | +9.6 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2021 | Hollington and Wishing Tree | Green | +3.5 pts | +9.6 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2021 | Bexhill West | Liberal Democrats | +4.0 pts | -2.0 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Pevensey and Stone Cross | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.1 pts | -3.2 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Peacehaven | Conservative | -9.5 pts | -3.6 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2021 | Maze Hill and West St Leonards | Conservative | +2.1 pts | -3.6 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2021 | Willingdon and South Downs | Conservative | +2.0 pts | -3.6 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2021 | Battle and Crowhurst | Conservative | +1.9 pts | -3.6 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2021 | Wealden North East | Green | +4.1 pts | +9.6 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2021 | Old Town | Green | +4.2 pts | +9.6 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2021 | Braybrooke and Castle | Conservative | +1.6 pts | -3.6 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bexhill West | Labour | +3.6 pts | -1.5 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2021 | Northern Rother | Labour | +3.4 pts | -1.5 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2021 | Willingdon and South Downs | Independent | +4.7 pts | -0.3 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2021 | Baird and Ore | Labour | -6.5 pts | -1.5 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2021 | Upperton | Green | +4.7 pts | +9.6 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2021 | Rother North West | Labour | +3.1 pts | -1.5 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Devonshire | Green | +5.0 pts | +9.6 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Forest Row and Groombridge | Green | +14.2 pts | +9.6 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Lewes | Labour | +3.0 pts | -1.5 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Old Town | Labour | +3.0 pts | -1.5 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Old Town | Liberal Democrats | -6.5 pts | -2.0 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2021 | Baird and Ore | Conservative | +0.8 pts | -3.6 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2021 | Northern Rother | Conservative | +0.8 pts | -3.6 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2021 | Polegate and Watermill | Labour | +2.9 pts | -1.5 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2021 | Ashdown and Conquest | Green | +5.4 pts | +9.6 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2021 | Hollington and Wishing Tree | Labour | -5.7 pts | -1.5 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2021 | Crowborough South and St Johns | Green | +5.5 pts | +9.6 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2021 | Ringmer and Lewes Bridge | Labour | -5.6 pts | -1.5 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2021 | Wealden East | Conservative | -7.5 pts | -3.6 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2021 | Willingdon and South Downs | Liberal Democrats | +1.9 pts | -2.0 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2021 | Northern Rother | Liberal Democrats | +1.8 pts | -2.0 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2021 | Braybrooke and Castle | Liberal Democrats | -5.7 pts | -2.0 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Sovereign | Liberal Democrats | +1.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Hailsham New Town | Labour | -5.2 pts | -1.5 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Newhaven and Bishopstone | Labour | -5.1 pts | -1.5 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Seaford South | Labour | +2.0 pts | -1.5 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2021 | Maresfield and Buxted | Conservative | -7.2 pts | -3.6 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2021 | Seaford North | Conservative | -7.2 pts | -3.6 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2021 | Chailey | Labour | -5.0 pts | -1.5 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2021 | Braybrooke and Castle | Green | +13.1 pts | +9.6 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2021 | Rye and Eastern Rother | Conservative | -0.2 pts | -3.6 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2021 | Ashdown and Conquest | Liberal Democrats | +1.4 pts | -2.0 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2021 | Polegate and Watermill | Conservative | -0.4 pts | -3.6 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Crowborough South and St Johns | Labour | +1.7 pts | -1.5 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Seaford South | Green | +6.4 pts | +9.6 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2021 | Ashdown and Conquest | Labour | -4.5 pts | -1.5 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2021 | Old Town | Conservative | -0.7 pts | -3.6 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2021 | Upperton | Labour | +1.4 pts | -1.5 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Devonshire | Liberal Democrats | -4.8 pts | -2.0 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Seaford South | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Newhaven and Bishopstone | Independent | +2.5 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Ratton | Conservative | -6.4 pts | -3.6 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2021 | Baird and Ore | Green | +7.0 pts | +9.6 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2021 | Sovereign | Conservative | -6.2 pts | -3.6 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Heathfield and Mayfield | Green | +12.1 pts | +9.6 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Pevensey and Stone Cross | Independent | -2.8 pts | -0.3 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Arlington, East Hoathly and Hellingly | Labour | +0.9 pts | -1.5 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Uckfield South with Framfield | Liberal Democrats | -4.3 pts | -2.0 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Seaford North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.4 pts | -3.2 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Maze Hill and West St Leonards | Labour | -3.7 pts | -1.5 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Heathfield and Mayfield | Labour | +0.5 pts | -1.5 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Bexhill South | Labour | +0.5 pts | -1.5 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2021 | St Anthony's | Labour | +0.4 pts | -1.5 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Maze Hill and West St Leonards | Liberal Democrats | -3.9 pts | -2.0 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Hampden Park | Labour | +0.3 pts | -1.5 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Langney | Labour | +0.2 pts | -1.5 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Polegate and Watermill | Independent | +1.4 pts | -0.3 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Maresfield and Buxted | Labour | +0.2 pts | -1.5 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Devonshire | Labour | +0.2 pts | -1.5 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Arlington, East Hoathly and Hellingly | Green | +11.3 pts | +9.6 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Langney | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Hollington and Wishing Tree | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Hailsham Market | Conservative | -5.1 pts | -3.6 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Bexhill East | Conservative | -2.2 pts | -3.6 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Ashdown and Conquest | Conservative | -2.2 pts | -3.6 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Sovereign | Labour | -0.1 pts | -1.5 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Crowborough North and Jarvis Brook | Labour | -2.8 pts | -1.5 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Old Hastings and Tressell | Liberal Democrats | -3.3 pts | -2.0 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2021 | St Helens and Silverhill | Green | +8.4 pts | +9.6 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Hailsham New Town | Conservative | -4.8 pts | -3.6 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2021 | St Helens and Silverhill | Labour | -2.7 pts | -1.5 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2021 | St Anthony's | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.1 pts | -3.2 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Upperton | Liberal Democrats | -3.1 pts | -2.0 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Upperton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.1 pts | -3.2 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Devonshire | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.3 pts | -3.2 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Seaford North | Liberal Democrats | -3.1 pts | -2.0 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Meads | Labour | -0.5 pts | -1.5 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Seaford South | Conservative | -4.7 pts | -3.6 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Brede Valley and Marsham | Labour | -2.5 pts | -1.5 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Battle and Crowhurst | Labour | -2.5 pts | -1.5 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Maresfield and Buxted | Green | +8.7 pts | +9.6 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Upperton | Conservative | -2.7 pts | -3.6 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Seaford North | Labour | -2.4 pts | -1.5 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Heathfield and Mayfield | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Seaford North | Independent | -1.1 pts | -0.3 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Uckfield North | Conservative | -4.4 pts | -3.6 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Rye and Eastern Rother | Labour | -0.8 pts | -1.5 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Langney | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.9 pts | -3.2 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Wealden East | Labour | -2.3 pts | -1.5 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Central St Leonards and Gensing | Conservative | -4.4 pts | -3.6 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Baird and Ore | Liberal Democrats | -1.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Ratton | Labour | -0.9 pts | -1.5 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Uckfield North | Green | +9.1 pts | +9.6 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Old Hastings and Tressell | Conservative | -3.1 pts | -3.6 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Telscombe | Liberal Democrats | -1.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Central St Leonards and Gensing | Liberal Democrats | -2.5 pts | -2.0 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Polegate and Watermill | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Maresfield and Buxted | Liberal Democrats | -1.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Forest Row and Groombridge | Conservative | -3.9 pts | -3.6 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Peacehaven | Liberal Democrats | -1.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2021 | St Helens and Silverhill | Liberal Democrats | -2.2 pts | -2.0 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | St Helens and Silverhill | Conservative | -3.5 pts | -3.6 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Ouse Valley West and Downs | Labour | -1.4 pts | -1.5 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Maze Hill and West St Leonards | Green | +9.7 pts | +9.6 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Bexhill East | Labour | -1.5 pts | -1.5 pts | +0.0 pts |