Eastbourne: wards that bucked the trend
Eastbourne: in 2019, 20 ward results beat the expected swing and 15 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Sovereign (+15.2 pts actual vs +0.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Sovereign | Conservative | +15.2 pts | +0.5 pts | +14.8 pts |
| 2019 | Ratton | Conservative | +9.6 pts | +0.5 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2019 | Old Town | Conservative | -8.4 pts | +0.5 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2019 | Langney | Conservative | -7.8 pts | +0.5 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Langney | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.3 pts | -12.0 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Upperton | Conservative | -6.8 pts | +0.5 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hampden Park | Labour | +5.7 pts | -0.1 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2019 | Meads | Labour | -5.8 pts | -0.1 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Old Town | Liberal Democrats | +6.6 pts | +11.0 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hampden Park | Liberal Democrats | +15.1 pts | +11.0 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Upperton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.3 pts | -12.0 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Upperton | Liberal Democrats | +14.5 pts | +11.0 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Langney | Liberal Democrats | +14.4 pts | +11.0 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Meads | Liberal Democrats | +7.6 pts | +11.0 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Meads | Conservative | +3.8 pts | +0.5 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2019 | St. Anthonys | Conservative | -2.7 pts | +0.5 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Upperton | Green | +3.4 pts | +0.2 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Meads | Green | +3.4 pts | +0.2 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Meads | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.0 pts | -12.0 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Devonshire | Liberal Democrats | +13.9 pts | +11.0 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Upperton | Labour | -2.9 pts | -0.1 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Old Town | Labour | +2.3 pts | -0.1 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Devonshire | Labour | +2.0 pts | -0.1 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Sovereign | Labour | -2.1 pts | -0.1 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Ratton | Liberal Democrats | +9.2 pts | +11.0 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Sovereign | Liberal Democrats | +9.4 pts | +11.0 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Old Town | Green | +1.7 pts | +0.2 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | St. Anthonys | Labour | +1.4 pts | -0.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Devonshire | Conservative | -0.9 pts | +0.5 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Devonshire | Green | +1.6 pts | +0.2 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2019 | St. Anthonys | Liberal Democrats | +12.3 pts | +11.0 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hampden Park | Conservative | -0.7 pts | +0.5 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | St. Anthonys | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.9 pts | -12.0 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Ratton | Labour | +0.6 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Langney | Labour | -0.2 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.0 pts |