Eastleigh: wards that bucked the trend
Eastleigh: in 2024, 26 ward results beat the expected swing and 18 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Hedge End North (-21.4 pts actual vs -6.8 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Hedge End North | Liberal Democrats | -21.4 pts | -6.8 pts | -14.6 pts |
| 2024 | Hamble and Netley | Liberal Democrats | +4.6 pts | -6.8 pts | +11.4 pts |
| 2024 | Hedge End North | Conservative | +13.3 pts | +3.7 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2024 | Fair Oak and Horton Heath | Green | -6.1 pts | +0.8 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2024 | Fair Oak and Horton Heath | Labour | +6.8 pts | +0.1 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2024 | Fair Oak and Horton Heath | Conservative | +9.6 pts | +3.7 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2024 | Eastleigh Central | Conservative | -2.0 pts | +3.7 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2024 | Hedge End North | Labour | +5.2 pts | +0.1 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2024 | Hedge End South | Green | -4.3 pts | +0.8 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2024 | Hedge End South | Liberal Democrats | -1.7 pts | -6.8 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2024 | Hamble and Netley | Conservative | -0.9 pts | +3.7 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2024 | Chandler's Ford | Conservative | -0.9 pts | +3.7 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2024 | Eastleigh Central | Labour | +5.2 pts | +0.8 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2024 | Eastleigh North | Green | +5.1 pts | +0.8 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2024 | Eastleigh North | Labour | -4.0 pts | +0.1 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2024 | Eastleigh Central | Green | -3.3 pts | +0.8 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2024 | Fair Oak and Horton Heath | Liberal Democrats | -10.3 pts | -6.8 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2024 | Hamble and Netley | Independent | -2.8 pts | +0.6 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Bursledon and Hound North | Conservative | +0.5 pts | +3.7 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2024 | Bishopstoke | Conservative | +0.8 pts | +3.7 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2024 | Bishopstoke | Liberal Democrats | -4.0 pts | -6.8 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2024 | Eastleigh South | Conservative | +1.2 pts | +3.7 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2024 | Eastleigh North | Liberal Democrats | -4.2 pts | -6.8 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Eastleigh South | Liberal Democrats | -4.4 pts | -6.8 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2024 | Hedge End North | Green | +2.9 pts | +0.8 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2024 | Hamble and Netley | Green | -0.9 pts | +0.8 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2024 | Hiltingbury | Liberal Democrats | -5.3 pts | -6.8 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2024 | Bursledon and Hound North | Liberal Democrats | -5.4 pts | -6.8 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2024 | Bishopstoke | Labour | +1.4 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2024 | Chandler's Ford | Liberal Democrats | -8.1 pts | -6.8 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2024 | Bishopstoke | Independent | +1.8 pts | +0.6 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2024 | Hedge End South | Conservative | +4.9 pts | +3.7 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2024 | Eastleigh South | Reform UK | +2.2 pts | +1.0 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2024 | Hedge End South | Labour | +1.1 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2024 | Eastleigh Central | Liberal Democrats | -7.9 pts | -6.8 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2024 | Hiltingbury | Labour | +0.7 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2024 | Eastleigh North | Conservative | +4.2 pts | +3.7 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2024 | Chandler's Ford | Labour | +0.5 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2024 | Bursledon and Hound North | Labour | -0.3 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2024 | Eastleigh South | Green | +0.9 pts | +0.8 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2024 | Hiltingbury | Conservative | +3.8 pts | +3.7 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2024 | Eastleigh South | Labour | +0.1 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2024 | Hamble and Netley | Labour | +0.0 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.0 pts |
| 2024 | Hiltingbury | Green | +0.8 pts | +0.8 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2023 | Eastleigh Central | Liberal Democrats | +13.1 pts | +0.9 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2023 | Eastleigh South | Green | -10.4 pts | +1.0 pts | -11.4 pts |
| 2023 | Eastleigh South | Conservative | +7.7 pts | -3.6 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2023 | Hedge End South | Liberal Democrats | -8.8 pts | +0.9 pts | -9.7 pts |
| 2023 | Hamble and Netley | Liberal Democrats | -8.6 pts | +0.9 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2023 | Hamble and Netley | Conservative | -10.8 pts | -3.6 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2023 | Bishopstoke | Labour | -6.3 pts | +0.5 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2023 | Eastleigh North | Labour | +6.7 pts | +0.5 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2023 | Eastleigh North | Conservative | -9.6 pts | -3.6 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2023 | West End North | Green | -4.8 pts | +1.0 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2023 | Bursledon and Hound North | Liberal Democrats | +6.3 pts | +0.9 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2023 | Bishopstoke | Liberal Democrats | +6.0 pts | +0.9 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2023 | Chandler's Ford | Conservative | +1.4 pts | -3.6 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2023 | Eastleigh North | Green | -3.6 pts | +1.0 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2023 | Eastleigh North | Liberal Democrats | +5.3 pts | +0.9 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2023 | Hiltingbury | Conservative | -7.4 pts | -3.6 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2023 | Eastleigh Central | Green | +4.7 pts | +1.0 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2023 | West End South | Green | -2.7 pts | +1.0 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2023 | West End North | Conservative | +0.0 pts | -3.6 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2023 | Eastleigh South | Liberal Democrats | -2.2 pts | +0.9 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2023 | Eastleigh Central | Conservative | -0.6 pts | -3.6 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2023 | Chandler's Ford | Labour | +3.4 pts | +0.5 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2023 | Bishopstoke | Independent | +2.3 pts | -0.5 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2023 | Fair Oak and Horton Heath | Liberal Democrats | -1.9 pts | +0.9 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2023 | West End South | Liberal Democrats | +3.7 pts | +0.9 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2023 | Hedge End North | Labour | +3.2 pts | +0.5 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2023 | Hedge End North | Conservative | -1.0 pts | -3.6 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2023 | Hedge End North | Liberal Democrats | -1.7 pts | +0.9 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2023 | Chandler's Ford | Liberal Democrats | +3.3 pts | +0.9 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2023 | West End North | Liberal Democrats | +3.2 pts | +0.9 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2023 | Hamble and Netley | Green | +3.2 pts | +1.0 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2023 | Bursledon and Hound North | Labour | -1.5 pts | +0.5 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2023 | Fair Oak and Horton Heath | Green | +2.8 pts | +1.0 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2023 | Bishopstoke | Conservative | -2.0 pts | -3.6 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2023 | Hedge End North | Green | -0.6 pts | +1.0 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2023 | Hiltingbury | Labour | -0.9 pts | +0.5 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Fair Oak and Horton Heath | Labour | +1.9 pts | +0.5 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2023 | West End South | Conservative | -2.2 pts | -3.6 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Bursledon and Hound North | Conservative | -4.9 pts | -3.6 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2023 | Hedge End South | Labour | +1.6 pts | +0.5 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Eastleigh South | Labour | +1.4 pts | +0.5 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2023 | Fair Oak and Horton Heath | Conservative | -2.8 pts | -3.6 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2023 | West End North | Labour | +1.3 pts | +0.5 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2023 | West End South | Labour | +1.2 pts | +0.5 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2023 | Hiltingbury | Liberal Democrats | +0.6 pts | +0.9 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2023 | Hamble and Netley | Labour | +0.4 pts | +0.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2023 | Hedge End South | Conservative | -3.5 pts | -3.6 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2019 | Bursledon and Hound North | Liberal Democrats | -12.2 pts | +0.1 pts | -12.3 pts |
| 2019 | Bursledon and Hound North | Conservative | +3.4 pts | -6.7 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2019 | West End South | Conservative | -16.7 pts | -6.7 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2019 | West End North | Liberal Democrats | -9.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh North | Independent | -9.2 pts | -1.4 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2019 | West End North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +15.0 pts | +7.9 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2019 | Bishopstoke | Liberal Democrats | +6.2 pts | +0.1 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2019 | West End South | Liberal Democrats | +6.0 pts | +0.1 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh South | Labour | -9.9 pts | -4.6 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hamble and Netley | Liberal Democrats | -5.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Bishopstoke | Conservative | -1.5 pts | -6.7 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +12.6 pts | +7.9 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hedge End South | Conservative | -11.1 pts | -6.7 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Fair Oak and Horton Heath | Green | +8.9 pts | +4.6 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh North | Liberal Democrats | +4.1 pts | +0.1 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Bursledon and Hound North | Labour | -0.7 pts | -4.6 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Fair Oak and Horton Heath | Liberal Democrats | -3.5 pts | +0.1 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh Central | Labour | -8.1 pts | -4.6 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hedge End South | Labour | -1.1 pts | -4.6 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh North | Conservative | -3.2 pts | -6.7 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Bishopstoke | Labour | -7.6 pts | -4.6 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Fair Oak and Horton Heath | Labour | -7.4 pts | -4.6 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hamble and Netley | Conservative | -9.5 pts | -6.7 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh South | Liberal Democrats | +2.7 pts | +0.1 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Bishopstoke | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +5.3 pts | +7.9 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Chandler's Ford | Conservative | -9.1 pts | -6.7 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hedge End South | Liberal Democrats | +2.6 pts | +0.1 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hedge End North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +5.5 pts | +7.9 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2019 | West End South | Labour | -2.2 pts | -4.6 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hiltingbury | Conservative | -8.9 pts | -6.7 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hedge End South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +5.8 pts | +7.9 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2019 | West End South | Green | +2.7 pts | +4.6 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hiltingbury | Liberal Democrats | +1.8 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh Central | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +9.5 pts | +7.9 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hiltingbury | Labour | -3.0 pts | -4.6 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh North | Labour | -3.0 pts | -4.6 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Bursledon and Hound North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +9.5 pts | +7.9 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hedge End North | Liberal Democrats | +1.7 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hedge End North | Conservative | -8.0 pts | -6.7 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh Central | Liberal Democrats | +1.5 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | West End North | Labour | -3.3 pts | -4.6 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh Central | Green | +3.4 pts | +4.6 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh South | Conservative | -5.5 pts | -6.7 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hedge End North | Green | +5.6 pts | +4.6 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Bishopstoke | Independent | -2.4 pts | -1.4 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | West End North | Green | +3.7 pts | +4.6 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +7.0 pts | +7.9 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hamble and Netley | Labour | -3.8 pts | -4.6 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Fair Oak and Horton Heath | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +8.5 pts | +7.9 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh Central | Conservative | -6.2 pts | -6.7 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Chandler's Ford | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +7.5 pts | +7.9 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | West End North | Conservative | -6.3 pts | -6.7 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Chandler's Ford | Labour | -4.9 pts | -4.6 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Chandler's Ford | Liberal Democrats | -0.2 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hedge End North | Labour | -4.8 pts | -4.6 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Eastleigh North | Green | +4.4 pts | +4.6 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Fair Oak and Horton Heath | Conservative | -6.5 pts | -6.7 pts | +0.2 pts |