Eden: wards that bucked the trend
Eden: in 2019, 6 ward results beat the expected swing and 10 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Penrith South (+46.0 pts actual vs -8.7 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Penrith South | Independent | +46.0 pts | -8.7 pts | +54.8 pts |
| 2019 | Alston Moor | Independent | -55.3 pts | -8.7 pts | -46.6 pts |
| 2019 | Penrith Carleton | Conservative | -43.4 pts | -13.0 pts | -30.5 pts |
| 2019 | Dacre | Liberal Democrats | +21.4 pts | +4.1 pts | +17.3 pts |
| 2019 | Penrith North | Conservative | -29.2 pts | -13.0 pts | -16.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hesket | Independent | +5.5 pts | -8.7 pts | +14.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hesket | Conservative | -24.4 pts | -13.0 pts | -11.4 pts |
| 2019 | Askham | Liberal Democrats | +15.5 pts | +4.1 pts | +11.4 pts |
| 2019 | Penrith North | Liberal Democrats | +12.6 pts | +4.1 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2019 | Langwathby | Independent | -3.7 pts | -8.7 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Penrith West | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | +4.1 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2019 | Alston Moor | Conservative | -17.5 pts | -13.0 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Langwathby | Conservative | -16.7 pts | -13.0 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Askham | Conservative | -15.5 pts | -13.0 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Penrith West | Labour | +2.7 pts | +4.8 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Penrith West | Conservative | -14.5 pts | -13.0 pts | -1.5 pts |