Epsom And Ewell: wards that bucked the trend
Epsom And Ewell: in 2019, 14 ward results beat the expected swing and 25 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in College (+35.7 pts actual vs +6.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | College | Liberal Democrats | +35.7 pts | +6.2 pts | +29.5 pts |
| 2019 | Stamford | Conservative | +5.3 pts | -16.4 pts | +21.6 pts |
| 2019 | Stoneleigh | Conservative | -33.2 pts | -16.4 pts | -16.8 pts |
| 2019 | College | Conservative | -30.6 pts | -16.4 pts | -14.2 pts |
| 2019 | Stamford | Liberal Democrats | -8.0 pts | +6.2 pts | -14.2 pts |
| 2019 | Court | Conservative | -26.5 pts | -16.4 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2019 | Ewell Court | Conservative | -6.4 pts | -16.4 pts | +9.9 pts |
| 2019 | Ewell Court | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | +6.2 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2019 | Auriol | Liberal Democrats | -1.8 pts | +6.2 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2019 | Ruxley | Conservative | -24.0 pts | -16.4 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Court | Labour | +2.4 pts | -5.0 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2019 | Cuddington | Conservative | -21.5 pts | -16.4 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Cuddington | Liberal Democrats | +1.1 pts | +6.2 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2019 | Nonsuch | Conservative | -11.5 pts | -16.4 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Auriol | Conservative | -20.9 pts | -16.4 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Town | Conservative | -12.1 pts | -16.4 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Cuddington | Labour | -9.1 pts | -5.0 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Ewell Court | Labour | -8.8 pts | -5.0 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Town | Labour | -8.5 pts | -5.0 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2019 | College | Labour | -8.4 pts | -5.0 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Stoneleigh | Liberal Democrats | +3.1 pts | +6.2 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2019 | Ewell | Labour | -2.1 pts | -5.0 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Woodcote | Labour | -2.4 pts | -5.0 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Stoneleigh | Labour | -7.6 pts | -5.0 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Ruxley | Liberal Democrats | +3.9 pts | +6.2 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Ruxley | Labour | -3.1 pts | -5.0 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Auriol | Labour | -3.3 pts | -5.0 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Woodcote | Conservative | -14.6 pts | -16.4 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2019 | West Ewell | Labour | -6.7 pts | -5.0 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | West Ewell | Liberal Democrats | +4.9 pts | +6.2 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Town | Liberal Democrats | +5.1 pts | +6.2 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | West Ewell | Conservative | -17.4 pts | -16.4 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Woodcote | Liberal Democrats | +6.9 pts | +6.2 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Stamford | Labour | -4.5 pts | -5.0 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Ewell | Liberal Democrats | +6.6 pts | +6.2 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Court | Liberal Democrats | +5.8 pts | +6.2 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Nonsuch | Labour | -5.2 pts | -5.0 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Ewell | Conservative | -16.5 pts | -16.4 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2019 | Nonsuch | Liberal Democrats | +6.1 pts | +6.2 pts | -0.1 pts |