Erewash: wards that bucked the trend
Erewash: in 2019, 29 ward results beat the expected swing and 15 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in West Hallam & Dale Abbey (-15.4 pts actual vs +2.7 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | West Hallam & Dale Abbey | Conservative | -15.4 pts | +2.7 pts | -18.1 pts |
| 2019 | West Hallam & Dale Abbey | Labour | -17.7 pts | +0.3 pts | -18.1 pts |
| 2019 | Derby Road East | Labour | +16.2 pts | +0.3 pts | +15.8 pts |
| 2019 | Cotmanhay | Conservative | +13.7 pts | +2.7 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2019 | Nottingham Road | Labour | +11.3 pts | +0.3 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2019 | Little Hallam | Labour | +10.5 pts | +0.3 pts | +10.2 pts |
| 2019 | Breaston | Labour | -9.8 pts | +0.3 pts | -10.2 pts |
| 2019 | Wilsthorpe | Labour | -9.1 pts | +0.3 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2019 | Awsworth Road | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.3 pts | -9.8 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2019 | Draycott & Risley | Conservative | +11.5 pts | +2.7 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2019 | Shipley View | Labour | +8.9 pts | +0.3 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2019 | OCKBROOK & BORROWASH | Labour | -7.9 pts | +0.3 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Little Eaton & Stanley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.9 pts | -9.8 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hallam Fields | Labour | +8.0 pts | +0.3 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2019 | Sawley | Labour | +7.9 pts | +0.3 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2019 | Larklands | Labour | +7.5 pts | +0.3 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Cotmanhay | Labour | +7.4 pts | +0.3 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2019 | Little Eaton & Stanley | Labour | -6.4 pts | +0.3 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2019 | Little Hallam | Conservative | +8.9 pts | +2.7 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2019 | Larklands | Conservative | +8.6 pts | +2.7 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2019 | Draycott & Risley | Labour | +5.3 pts | +0.3 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Kirk Hallam & Stanton-by-Dale | Labour | +5.3 pts | +0.3 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hallam Fields | Conservative | +7.6 pts | +2.7 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Sawley | Conservative | -1.9 pts | +2.7 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Derby Road West | Conservative | -1.8 pts | +2.7 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Awsworth Road | Conservative | -1.8 pts | +2.7 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Derby Road East | Conservative | -1.7 pts | +2.7 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Little Eaton & Stanley | Conservative | -1.7 pts | +2.7 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Long Eaton Central | Labour | +4.5 pts | +0.3 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Shipley View | Conservative | +6.7 pts | +2.7 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Wilsthorpe | Conservative | +6.5 pts | +2.7 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Wilsthorpe | Liberal Democrats | +11.4 pts | +7.8 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2019 | Long Eaton Central | Liberal Democrats | +4.4 pts | +7.8 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2019 | OCKBROOK & BORROWASH | Conservative | +5.4 pts | +2.7 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Kirk Hallam & Stanton-by-Dale | Conservative | +5.4 pts | +2.7 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Derby Road West | Labour | +3.0 pts | +0.3 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Sandiacre | Labour | +2.9 pts | +0.3 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Sawley | Liberal Democrats | +5.5 pts | +7.8 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Sandiacre | Conservative | +4.9 pts | +2.7 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Awsworth Road | Labour | +2.1 pts | +0.3 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Derby Road West | Liberal Democrats | +6.3 pts | +7.8 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Nottingham Road | Conservative | +3.1 pts | +2.7 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Breaston | Conservative | +2.4 pts | +2.7 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Long Eaton Central | Conservative | +3.0 pts | +2.7 pts | +0.3 pts |