Exeter: wards that bucked the trend
Exeter: in 2024, 23 ward results beat the expected swing and 28 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Pinhoe (-51.3 pts actual vs -4.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Pinhoe | Labour | -51.3 pts | -4.4 pts | -46.9 pts |
| 2024 | St Thomas | Labour | -27.9 pts | -4.4 pts | -23.5 pts |
| 2024 | Priory | Labour | -24.3 pts | -4.4 pts | -19.9 pts |
| 2024 | Mincinglake and Whipton | Labour | -23.4 pts | -4.4 pts | -19.0 pts |
| 2024 | Heavitree | Independent | -10.0 pts | +7.7 pts | -17.6 pts |
| 2024 | Newtown and St Leonard's | Green | +11.5 pts | -2.5 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2024 | Newtown and St Leonard's | Labour | -17.2 pts | -4.4 pts | -12.8 pts |
| 2024 | Mincinglake and Whipton | Liberal Democrats | -4.5 pts | +3.6 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2024 | Heavitree | Conservative | +7.8 pts | -0.3 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2024 | Pinhoe | Conservative | -8.1 pts | -0.3 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2024 | St David's | Labour | +2.2 pts | -4.7 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2024 | Pinhoe | Green | +3.0 pts | -2.5 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2024 | Newtown and St Leonard's | Liberal Democrats | -1.7 pts | +3.6 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2024 | Mincinglake and Whipton | Conservative | -5.0 pts | -0.3 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2024 | Pennsylvania | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | +3.6 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2024 | St Thomas | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | +3.6 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2024 | Topsham | Green | +2.1 pts | -2.5 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2024 | Heavitree | Green | +2.0 pts | -2.5 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2024 | Heavitree | Labour | -0.1 pts | -4.4 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2024 | Topsham | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | +3.6 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2024 | Priory | Green | -6.3 pts | -2.5 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2024 | Duryard & St James | Green | +1.2 pts | -2.5 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2024 | St Thomas | Conservative | +3.4 pts | -0.3 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2024 | St Loyes | Liberal Democrats | -0.0 pts | +3.6 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2024 | Heavitree | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | +3.6 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2024 | St Loyes | Green | +0.7 pts | -2.5 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2024 | Alphington | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | +3.6 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2024 | Exwick | Conservative | -3.3 pts | -0.3 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2024 | St Loyes | Conservative | +2.8 pts | -0.3 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2024 | Newtown and St Leonard's | Conservative | +2.6 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2024 | Exwick | Liberal Democrats | +0.8 pts | +3.6 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2024 | Topsham | Labour | -1.7 pts | -4.4 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2024 | St David's | Liberal Democrats | +1.0 pts | +3.6 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2024 | Alphington | Green | +0.0 pts | -2.5 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2024 | St Thomas | Green | -0.1 pts | -2.5 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2024 | Exwick | Independent | +5.6 pts | +7.7 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2024 | Pinhoe | Liberal Democrats | +1.5 pts | +3.6 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2024 | Exwick | Green | -0.4 pts | -2.5 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2024 | Exwick | Labour | -2.6 pts | -4.7 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2024 | St David's | Green | -4.3 pts | -2.5 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2024 | Pennsylvania | Conservative | -2.0 pts | -0.3 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2024 | St David's | Conservative | +1.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2024 | Priory | Conservative | -1.5 pts | -0.3 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2024 | St Loyes | Labour | -3.5 pts | -4.7 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2024 | Priory | Liberal Democrats | +4.5 pts | +3.6 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2024 | Pennsylvania | Green | -1.9 pts | -2.5 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2024 | Duryard & St James | Liberal Democrats | +3.1 pts | +3.6 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2024 | Topsham | Conservative | -0.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2024 | Alphington | Conservative | -0.5 pts | -0.3 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2024 | Mincinglake and Whipton | Green | -2.6 pts | -2.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2024 | Duryard & St James | Conservative | -0.2 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2023 | St Thomas | Labour | +8.6 pts | -17.1 pts | +25.7 pts |
| 2023 | Newtown and St Leonard's | Labour | +7.2 pts | -17.1 pts | +24.3 pts |
| 2023 | Priory | Labour | +0.9 pts | -17.1 pts | +18.0 pts |
| 2023 | Mincinglake and Whipton | Labour | +0.1 pts | -17.1 pts | +17.1 pts |
| 2023 | Pinhoe | Labour | -0.2 pts | -17.1 pts | +16.9 pts |
| 2023 | Topsham | Labour | -0.6 pts | -17.1 pts | +16.5 pts |
| 2023 | Heavitree | Labour | -2.9 pts | -17.1 pts | +14.2 pts |
| 2023 | Pennsylvania | Green | +10.8 pts | +0.7 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2023 | St Thomas | Conservative | -13.1 pts | -3.5 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2023 | St David's | Green | +7.4 pts | +0.7 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2023 | St Loyes | Green | -5.9 pts | +0.7 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2023 | Priory | Liberal Democrats | +6.6 pts | +0.6 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2023 | Newtown and St Leonard's | Green | -5.1 pts | +0.7 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2023 | Topsham | Green | -4.2 pts | +0.7 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2023 | Priory | Conservative | -8.3 pts | -3.5 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2023 | Pennsylvania | Liberal Democrats | -4.1 pts | +0.6 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2023 | St Thomas | Liberal Democrats | +4.5 pts | +0.6 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2023 | Heavitree | Green | -2.6 pts | +0.7 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2023 | Mincinglake and Whipton | Liberal Democrats | +3.8 pts | +0.6 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2023 | Duryard & St James | Green | +3.5 pts | +0.7 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2023 | Alphington | Liberal Democrats | -1.7 pts | +0.6 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2023 | Topsham | Conservative | -1.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2023 | Exwick | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | +0.6 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2023 | Alphington | Green | +2.2 pts | +0.7 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2023 | Alphington | Conservative | -2.1 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2023 | St David's | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | +0.6 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Heavitree | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | +0.6 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Pinhoe | Green | +2.0 pts | +0.7 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2023 | Pinhoe | Liberal Democrats | +1.8 pts | +0.6 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2023 | Duryard & St James | Conservative | -4.7 pts | -3.5 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2023 | Newtown and St Leonard's | Liberal Democrats | +1.7 pts | +0.6 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Duryard & St James | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | +0.6 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Mincinglake and Whipton | Green | -0.1 pts | +0.7 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2023 | St David's | Conservative | -2.9 pts | -3.5 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Exwick | Conservative | -3.0 pts | -3.5 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2023 | Exwick | Green | +0.2 pts | +0.7 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2023 | Pennsylvania | Conservative | -3.1 pts | -3.5 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2023 | St Thomas | Green | +0.3 pts | +0.7 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2023 | Newtown and St Leonard's | Conservative | -3.9 pts | -3.5 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2023 | St Loyes | Conservative | -3.9 pts | -3.5 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2023 | Mincinglake and Whipton | Conservative | -3.8 pts | -3.5 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2023 | Heavitree | Conservative | -3.7 pts | -3.5 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2023 | Priory | Green | +0.8 pts | +0.7 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2023 | Pinhoe | Conservative | -3.6 pts | -3.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2019 | St David's | Green | +22.9 pts | +6.8 pts | +16.2 pts |
| 2019 | Alphington | Labour | -22.9 pts | -11.8 pts | -11.1 pts |
| 2019 | Priory | Labour | -22.5 pts | -11.8 pts | -10.7 pts |
| 2019 | Mincinglake and Whipton | Conservative | -13.2 pts | -4.0 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2019 | Heavitree | Green | +15.3 pts | +6.8 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2019 | Pennsylvania | Labour | -4.3 pts | -11.8 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2019 | Priory | Conservative | +3.0 pts | -4.0 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2019 | Newtown and St Leonard's | Conservative | -10.1 pts | -4.0 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2019 | Alphington | Conservative | +2.1 pts | -4.0 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2019 | Duryard & St James | Conservative | +1.8 pts | -4.0 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Duryard & St James | Labour | -6.5 pts | -11.8 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2019 | St David's | Conservative | -8.1 pts | -4.0 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Alphington | Liberal Democrats | +2.8 pts | -1.1 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Topsham | Labour | -7.9 pts | -11.8 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2019 | St Thomas | Labour | -8.3 pts | -11.8 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Topsham | Conservative | -0.6 pts | -4.0 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2019 | Topsham | Green | +10.0 pts | +6.8 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Pennsylvania | Conservative | -0.8 pts | -4.0 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Pinhoe | Labour | -8.7 pts | -11.8 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2019 | St Loyes | Liberal Democrats | +1.9 pts | -1.1 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Heavitree | Liberal Democrats | +1.9 pts | -1.1 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | St Loyes | Green | +3.8 pts | +6.8 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2019 | St Thomas | Conservative | -6.6 pts | -4.0 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Pinhoe | Conservative | -6.3 pts | -4.0 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Pennsylvania | Green | +4.5 pts | +6.8 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Pinhoe | Green | +4.6 pts | +6.8 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Heavitree | Conservative | -6.1 pts | -4.0 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Priory | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | -1.1 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Alphington | Green | +8.8 pts | +6.8 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Exwick | Liberal Democrats | -3.2 pts | -1.1 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Exwick | Conservative | -2.1 pts | -4.0 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2019 | St Thomas | Liberal Democrats | +0.7 pts | -1.1 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Pennsylvania | Liberal Democrats | +0.5 pts | -1.1 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Exwick | Labour | -13.3 pts | -11.8 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | St David's | Labour | -13.3 pts | -11.8 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Mincinglake and Whipton | Labour | -10.4 pts | -11.8 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2019 | St Loyes | Labour | -13.2 pts | -11.8 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Mincinglake and Whipton | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | -1.1 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Exwick | Green | +5.8 pts | +6.8 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Heavitree | Labour | -11.0 pts | -11.8 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Pinhoe | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | -1.1 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2019 | St Loyes | Conservative | -4.5 pts | -4.0 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2019 | St Thomas | Green | +6.2 pts | +6.8 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Newtown and St Leonard's | Labour | -12.3 pts | -11.8 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Duryard & St James | WEP | -0.5 pts | -0.0 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Mincinglake and Whipton | Green | +6.4 pts | +6.8 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Duryard & St James | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | -1.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Topsham | Liberal Democrats | -1.5 pts | -1.1 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | St David's | Liberal Democrats | -1.5 pts | -1.1 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Duryard & St James | Green | +6.5 pts | +6.8 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Priory | Green | +6.5 pts | +6.8 pts | -0.3 pts |