Fareham: wards that bucked the trend
Fareham: in 2022, 24 ward results beat the expected swing and 35 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Titchfield Common (+32.8 pts actual vs -2.7 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Titchfield Common | Independent | +32.8 pts | -2.7 pts | +35.5 pts |
| 2022 | Sarisbury | Conservative | +15.4 pts | -10.7 pts | +26.1 pts |
| 2022 | Titchfield Common | Conservative | -25.8 pts | -10.7 pts | -15.1 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham East | Conservative | +2.3 pts | -10.7 pts | +13.0 pts |
| 2022 | Avenue | Liberal Democrats | -5.5 pts | +7.2 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2022 | Titchfield Common | Liberal Democrats | -4.5 pts | +7.2 pts | -11.6 pts |
| 2022 | Avenue | Labour | +13.5 pts | +1.9 pts | +11.6 pts |
| 2022 | Locks Heath | Liberal Democrats | -3.9 pts | +7.2 pts | -11.0 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham East | Liberal Democrats | -3.9 pts | +7.2 pts | -11.0 pts |
| 2022 | Avenue | Conservative | -2.1 pts | -10.7 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham West | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | +7.2 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2022 | Locks Heath | Labour | -5.8 pts | +1.9 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham North-West | Liberal Democrats | +14.1 pts | +7.2 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2022 | Locks Heath | Conservative | -17.2 pts | -10.7 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham South | Labour | +8.4 pts | +1.9 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2022 | Portchester East | Conservative | -4.7 pts | -10.7 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2022 | Sarisbury | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | +7.2 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2022 | Park Gate | Liberal Democrats | +1.4 pts | +7.2 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham West | Conservative | -5.0 pts | -10.7 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2022 | Warsash | Liberal Democrats | +1.6 pts | +7.2 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2022 | Titchfield | Conservative | -15.7 pts | -10.7 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2022 | Portchester West | Conservative | -15.3 pts | -10.7 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2022 | Portchester West | Liberal Democrats | +2.7 pts | +7.2 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2022 | Titchfield | Liberal Democrats | +2.7 pts | +7.2 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2022 | Titchfield Common | Labour | -2.5 pts | +1.9 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham North-West | Labour | -2.4 pts | +1.9 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham South | Liberal Democrats | +3.1 pts | +7.2 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2022 | Hill Head | Labour | +5.8 pts | +1.9 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2022 | Titchfield | Labour | -1.6 pts | +1.9 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham West | Green | +2.8 pts | -0.3 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Portchester West | Labour | +5.0 pts | +1.9 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Hill Head | Conservative | -13.4 pts | -10.7 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Portchester East | Labour | -0.7 pts | +1.9 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham East | Labour | -0.5 pts | +1.9 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Sarisbury | Labour | -0.3 pts | +1.9 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2022 | Portchester Castle | Independent | -0.8 pts | -2.7 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Avenue | Green | -2.1 pts | -0.3 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Park Gate | Labour | +3.7 pts | +1.9 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Hill Head | Liberal Democrats | +8.9 pts | +7.2 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Park Gate | Conservative | -9.0 pts | -10.7 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham North | Conservative | -9.1 pts | -10.7 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham South | Green | -1.8 pts | -0.3 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Warsash | Labour | +0.4 pts | +1.9 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Portchester Castle | Conservative | -9.3 pts | -10.7 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham South | Conservative | -9.4 pts | -10.7 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Portchester Castle | Labour | +0.8 pts | +1.9 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham North | Labour | +0.8 pts | +1.9 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham West | Labour | +0.8 pts | +1.9 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham North | Liberal Democrats | +8.1 pts | +7.2 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham North-West | Conservative | -11.6 pts | -10.7 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Portchester East | Independent | -1.9 pts | -2.7 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Stubbington | Conservative | -11.4 pts | -10.7 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham West | REF | -0.8 pts | -0.3 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Fareham North | Green | +0.3 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Stubbington | Labour | +1.5 pts | +1.9 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | Stubbington | Liberal Democrats | +6.8 pts | +7.2 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Portchester Castle | Liberal Democrats | +7.5 pts | +7.2 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Warsash | Conservative | -10.9 pts | -10.7 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Portchester East | Liberal Democrats | +7.3 pts | +7.2 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Hill Head | Liberal Democrats | +28.5 pts | +2.5 pts | +26.0 pts |
| 2018 | Titchfield Common | Conservative | -21.3 pts | +3.8 pts | -25.2 pts |
| 2018 | Stubbington | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -32.2 pts | -7.6 pts | -24.6 pts |
| 2018 | Stubbington | Liberal Democrats | +26.6 pts | +2.5 pts | +24.1 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham East | Liberal Democrats | -21.1 pts | +2.5 pts | -23.6 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham North | Liberal Democrats | -14.5 pts | +2.5 pts | -17.0 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham North-West | Conservative | +18.5 pts | +3.8 pts | +14.6 pts |
| 2018 | Portchester East | Conservative | -10.5 pts | +3.8 pts | -14.3 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham East | Conservative | +17.3 pts | +3.8 pts | +13.5 pts |
| 2018 | Portchester East | Liberal Democrats | +15.5 pts | +2.5 pts | +13.0 pts |
| 2018 | Warsash | Liberal Democrats | +15.1 pts | +2.5 pts | +12.6 pts |
| 2018 | Portchester West | Liberal Democrats | -10.1 pts | +2.5 pts | -12.6 pts |
| 2018 | Park Gate | Labour | +12.4 pts | -0.1 pts | +12.5 pts |
| 2018 | Portchester West | Conservative | +14.3 pts | +3.8 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2018 | Warsash | Conservative | -4.4 pts | +3.8 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham South | Conservative | +11.4 pts | +3.8 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham North | Conservative | +10.4 pts | +3.8 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham North-West | Independent | -2.8 pts | +3.1 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham West | Liberal Democrats | -2.4 pts | +2.5 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2018 | Portchester East | Labour | -5.0 pts | -0.1 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham South | Labour | +4.7 pts | -0.1 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2018 | Portchester West | Labour | -4.2 pts | -0.1 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham East | Labour | +3.8 pts | -0.1 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham North | Labour | +3.6 pts | -0.1 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2018 | Sarisbury | Conservative | +0.1 pts | +3.8 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2018 | Titchfield Common | Labour | -3.5 pts | -0.1 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2018 | Titchfield | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | +2.5 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2018 | Warsash | Labour | -3.0 pts | -0.1 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham North | Green | -4.6 pts | -1.7 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Stubbington | Conservative | +6.7 pts | +3.8 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Locks Heath | Conservative | +1.1 pts | +3.8 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Sarisbury | Liberal Democrats | +0.6 pts | +2.5 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2018 | Titchfield | Labour | -1.9 pts | -0.1 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Titchfield | Conservative | +2.4 pts | +3.8 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Park Gate | Conservative | +2.4 pts | +3.8 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham South | Liberal Democrats | +1.1 pts | +2.5 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Hill Head | Conservative | +2.6 pts | +3.8 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Hill Head | Labour | -1.1 pts | -0.1 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Stubbington | Labour | -1.1 pts | -0.1 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham West | Labour | -1.1 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Sarisbury | Labour | -0.8 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham West | Conservative | +3.5 pts | +3.8 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Locks Heath | Labour | -0.5 pts | -0.1 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham North-West | Labour | +0.2 pts | -0.1 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Fareham North-West | Liberal Democrats | +2.7 pts | +2.5 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2016 | Titchfield Common | Conservative | +32.5 pts | +7.4 pts | +25.1 pts |
| 2016 | Portchester East | Liberal Democrats | -19.5 pts | -0.7 pts | -18.8 pts |
| 2016 | Titchfield Common | Liberal Democrats | +12.3 pts | -0.7 pts | +13.0 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham North-West | Liberal Democrats | -13.1 pts | -0.7 pts | -12.4 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham East | Conservative | -4.8 pts | +7.4 pts | -12.2 pts |
| 2016 | Sarisbury | Conservative | -4.1 pts | +7.4 pts | -11.6 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham North | Liberal Democrats | +10.3 pts | -0.7 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2016 | Locks Heath | Conservative | -3.0 pts | +7.4 pts | -10.5 pts |
| 2016 | Portchester East | Conservative | +17.4 pts | +7.4 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2016 | Portchester West | Conservative | +17.1 pts | +7.4 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2016 | Hill Head | Conservative | -1.2 pts | +7.4 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham West | Liberal Democrats | +7.9 pts | -0.7 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham East | Liberal Democrats | +7.3 pts | -0.7 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2016 | Stubbington | Liberal Democrats | +7.2 pts | -0.7 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham North-West | Independent | +2.6 pts | -5.2 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2016 | Titchfield | Liberal Democrats | +6.6 pts | -0.7 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2016 | Stubbington | Conservative | +0.3 pts | +7.4 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham North-West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +1.0 pts | -6.0 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2016 | Park Gate | Conservative | +0.9 pts | +7.4 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham West | Labour | +7.9 pts | +2.3 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2016 | Titchfield Common | Labour | +7.7 pts | +2.3 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2016 | Portchester West | Liberal Democrats | +4.6 pts | -0.7 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2016 | Park Gate | Labour | -2.6 pts | +2.3 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham East | Labour | -2.6 pts | +2.3 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2016 | Warsash | Conservative | +12.3 pts | +7.4 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham West | Conservative | +12.2 pts | +7.4 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2016 | Hill Head | Liberal Democrats | +3.1 pts | -0.7 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2016 | Hill Head | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.3 pts | -6.0 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham South | Liberal Democrats | +2.9 pts | -0.7 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham North-West | Conservative | +4.2 pts | +7.4 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham North-West | Labour | +5.3 pts | +2.3 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham North | Labour | +5.1 pts | +2.3 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.5 pts | -6.0 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham North | Conservative | +9.8 pts | +7.4 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2016 | Stubbington | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.4 pts | -6.0 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2016 | Warsash | Green | -0.1 pts | +2.1 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2016 | Warsash | Liberal Democrats | +1.4 pts | -0.7 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2016 | Hill Head | Labour | +0.4 pts | +2.3 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham South | Conservative | +5.6 pts | +7.4 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2016 | Sarisbury | Liberal Democrats | +1.2 pts | -0.7 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2016 | Titchfield | Labour | +4.2 pts | +2.3 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2016 | Stubbington | Labour | +0.8 pts | +2.3 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2016 | Portchester West | Labour | +1.2 pts | +2.3 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham North | Green | +3.1 pts | +2.1 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2016 | Warsash | Labour | +1.4 pts | +2.3 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2016 | Fareham South | Labour | +3.2 pts | +2.3 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2016 | Sarisbury | Labour | +2.9 pts | +2.3 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2016 | Titchfield | Conservative | +7.7 pts | +7.4 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2016 | Portchester East | Labour | +2.1 pts | +2.3 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2016 | Locks Heath | Labour | +2.4 pts | +2.3 pts | +0.0 pts |