Fenland: wards that bucked the trend
Fenland: in 2019, 9 ward results beat the expected swing and 15 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Manea (-32.9 pts actual vs -0.6 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Manea | Conservative | -32.9 pts | -0.6 pts | -32.3 pts |
| 2019 | Benwick, Coates and Eastrea | Conservative | -32.0 pts | -0.6 pts | -31.4 pts |
| 2019 | Roman Bank | Conservative | +27.7 pts | -0.6 pts | +28.3 pts |
| 2019 | Parson Drove & Wisbech St Mary | Liberal Democrats | +31.8 pts | +5.2 pts | +26.6 pts |
| 2019 | Waterlees Village | Independent | -14.9 pts | +11.3 pts | -26.2 pts |
| 2019 | Parson Drove & Wisbech St Mary | Conservative | -22.2 pts | -0.6 pts | -21.7 pts |
| 2019 | March West | Conservative | +19.9 pts | -0.6 pts | +20.5 pts |
| 2019 | Octavia Hill | Conservative | +19.4 pts | -0.6 pts | +20.0 pts |
| 2019 | Peckover | Conservative | -18.3 pts | -0.6 pts | -17.7 pts |
| 2019 | Waterlees Village | Conservative | +14.9 pts | -0.6 pts | +15.5 pts |
| 2019 | Elm & Christchurch | Conservative | -15.4 pts | -0.6 pts | -14.9 pts |
| 2019 | March North | Independent | -2.9 pts | +11.3 pts | -14.2 pts |
| 2019 | Octavia Hill | Labour | -18.0 pts | -4.9 pts | -13.1 pts |
| 2019 | Manea | Independent | +21.6 pts | +11.3 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2019 | Kirkgate | Conservative | -10.1 pts | -0.6 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2019 | March West | Green | +10.1 pts | +1.6 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2019 | March North | Conservative | -8.6 pts | -0.6 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2019 | March West | Labour | -11.0 pts | -4.9 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2019 | Elm & Christchurch | Green | -2.4 pts | +1.6 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2019 | March North | Liberal Democrats | +9.1 pts | +5.2 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2019 | March East | Conservative | -3.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | March East | Independent | +9.5 pts | +11.3 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | March East | Labour | -5.9 pts | -4.9 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | March North | Green | +2.5 pts | +1.6 pts | +0.8 pts |