Gedling: wards that bucked the trend
Gedling: in 2019, 31 ward results beat the expected swing and 27 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Calverton (+36.0 pts actual vs +3.9 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Calverton | Independent | +36.0 pts | +3.9 pts | +32.1 pts |
| 2019 | Carlton | Labour | -14.8 pts | +8.0 pts | -22.9 pts |
| 2019 | Calverton | Labour | -13.5 pts | +8.0 pts | -21.6 pts |
| 2019 | Netherfield | Labour | +28.6 pts | +8.0 pts | +20.5 pts |
| 2019 | Phoenix | Liberal Democrats | +24.8 pts | +6.0 pts | +18.8 pts |
| 2019 | Colwick | Labour | +22.7 pts | +8.0 pts | +14.7 pts |
| 2019 | Redhill | Labour | +19.9 pts | +8.0 pts | +11.9 pts |
| 2019 | Cavendish | Labour | +19.5 pts | +8.0 pts | +11.4 pts |
| 2019 | Phoenix | Labour | -3.3 pts | +8.0 pts | -11.4 pts |
| 2019 | Colwick | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.1 pts | -14.0 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2019 | Cavendish | Liberal Democrats | -4.7 pts | +6.0 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2019 | Gedling | Labour | +17.3 pts | +8.0 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Redhill | Conservative | -13.8 pts | -5.2 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2019 | Newstead Abbey | Labour | -0.5 pts | +8.0 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2019 | Colwick | Conservative | -13.7 pts | -5.2 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2019 | Coppice | Labour | +16.5 pts | +8.0 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2019 | Woodthorpe | Labour | +16.2 pts | +8.0 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2019 | Ernehale | Labour | +16.0 pts | +8.0 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Carlton Hill | Labour | +15.8 pts | +8.0 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2019 | Porchester | Conservative | -13.0 pts | -5.2 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2019 | Cavendish | Conservative | +2.4 pts | -5.2 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Trent Valley | Conservative | +1.6 pts | -5.2 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2019 | Carlton Hill | Conservative | +1.4 pts | -5.2 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2019 | Gedling | Liberal Democrats | +0.1 pts | +6.0 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Ernehale | Liberal Democrats | +0.6 pts | +6.0 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Trent Valley | Labour | +2.9 pts | +8.0 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Daybrook | Labour | +13.2 pts | +8.0 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Dumbles | Labour | +3.1 pts | +8.0 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Ernehale | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.2 pts | -14.0 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2019 | Newstead Abbey | Conservative | -0.6 pts | -5.2 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2019 | Coppice | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.3 pts | -14.0 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2019 | Bestwood St Albans | Labour | +3.6 pts | +8.0 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Daybrook | Conservative | -9.5 pts | -5.2 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Gedling | Conservative | -1.1 pts | -5.2 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Bestwood St Albans | Conservative | -1.1 pts | -5.2 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Woodthorpe | Liberal Democrats | +2.0 pts | +6.0 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Carlton | Conservative | -1.3 pts | -5.2 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Carlton Hill | Liberal Democrats | +2.2 pts | +6.0 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Ernehale | Conservative | -8.7 pts | -5.2 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Trent Valley | Liberal Democrats | +9.2 pts | +6.0 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2019 | Plains | Liberal Democrats | +2.7 pts | +6.0 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2019 | Netherfield | Liberal Democrats | +2.7 pts | +6.0 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Redhill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.0 pts | -14.0 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Calverton | Conservative | -8.1 pts | -5.2 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Woodthorpe | Conservative | -8.0 pts | -5.2 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Daybrook | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.6 pts | -14.0 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Plains | Labour | +10.3 pts | +8.0 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Coppice | Conservative | -7.5 pts | -5.2 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Netherfield | Conservative | -7.1 pts | -5.2 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Bestwood St Albans | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.2 pts | -14.0 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Coppice | Green | +0.4 pts | -0.7 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Dumbles | Conservative | -4.1 pts | -5.2 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Porchester | Labour | +7.0 pts | +8.0 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Phoenix | Conservative | -4.2 pts | -5.2 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Carlton | Liberal Democrats | +4.9 pts | +6.0 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Ernehale | Independent | +4.4 pts | +3.9 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Calverton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.4 pts | -14.0 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Plains | Conservative | -5.3 pts | -5.2 pts | -0.1 pts |