Gosport: wards that bucked the trend
Gosport: in 2024, 21 ward results beat the expected swing and 18 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Peel Common (+8.1 pts actual vs -7.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Peel Common | Liberal Democrats | +8.1 pts | -7.2 pts | +15.3 pts |
| 2024 | Harbourside and Town | Liberal Democrats | +6.8 pts | -7.2 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2024 | Bridgemary | Liberal Democrats | -20.6 pts | -7.2 pts | -13.4 pts |
| 2024 | Lee East | Liberal Democrats | +4.6 pts | -7.2 pts | +11.8 pts |
| 2024 | Leesland and Newtown | Liberal Democrats | -18.6 pts | -7.2 pts | -11.4 pts |
| 2024 | Elson | Conservative | -8.8 pts | +2.1 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2024 | Peel Common | Conservative | -8.3 pts | +2.1 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2024 | Bridgemary | Conservative | +11.9 pts | +2.1 pts | +9.7 pts |
| 2024 | Hardway | Liberal Democrats | -16.7 pts | -7.2 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2024 | Forton | Liberal Democrats | -16.4 pts | -7.2 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2024 | Leesland and Newtown | Labour | +10.7 pts | +2.8 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2024 | Rowner and Holbrook | Conservative | -5.6 pts | +2.1 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2024 | Brockhurst and Privett | Liberal Democrats | -14.9 pts | -7.2 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2024 | Rowner and Holbrook | Labour | +10.3 pts | +2.8 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2024 | Harbourside and Town | Labour | +9.6 pts | +2.8 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2024 | Forton | Conservative | -3.8 pts | +2.1 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2024 | Bridgemary | Labour | +8.8 pts | +2.8 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2024 | Grange and Alver Valley | Conservative | -3.6 pts | +2.1 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2024 | Lee East | Labour | +8.5 pts | +2.8 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2024 | Anglesey | Conservative | -3.5 pts | +2.1 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2024 | Alverstoke | Liberal Democrats | -1.9 pts | -7.2 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2024 | Leesland and Newtown | Conservative | +7.3 pts | +2.1 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2024 | Lee East | Conservative | -2.4 pts | +2.1 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2024 | Brockhurst and Privett | Labour | +7.3 pts | +2.8 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2024 | Alverstoke | Conservative | +6.3 pts | +2.1 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2024 | Leesland and Newtown | Green | +2.6 pts | -1.2 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2024 | Alverstoke | Labour | +6.2 pts | +2.8 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Brockhurst and Privett | Conservative | -1.2 pts | +2.1 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2024 | Hardway | Labour | +5.8 pts | +2.8 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2024 | Peel Common | Labour | +0.2 pts | +2.8 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2024 | Elson | Liberal Democrats | -4.6 pts | -7.2 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2024 | Anglesey | Liberal Democrats | -4.7 pts | -7.2 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Rowner and Holbrook | Liberal Democrats | -4.8 pts | -7.2 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Forton | Labour | +5.2 pts | +2.8 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2024 | Elson | Green | +1.1 pts | -1.2 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2024 | Lee West | Conservative | +0.0 pts | +2.1 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2024 | Anglesey | Labour | +0.7 pts | +2.8 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2024 | Lee West | Labour | +1.0 pts | +2.8 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2024 | Hardway | Conservative | +1.2 pts | +2.1 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Elson | Liberal Democrats | -23.1 pts | +10.4 pts | -33.4 pts |
| 2021 | Elson | Conservative | +25.5 pts | -2.3 pts | +27.9 pts |
| 2021 | Alverstoke | Conservative | -24.3 pts | -2.3 pts | -21.9 pts |
| 2021 | Leesland | Labour | +10.1 pts | -8.2 pts | +18.2 pts |
| 2021 | Hardway | Liberal Democrats | -7.4 pts | +10.4 pts | -17.8 pts |
| 2021 | Anglesey | Conservative | -19.6 pts | -2.3 pts | -17.3 pts |
| 2021 | Town | Labour | -24.8 pts | -8.2 pts | -16.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bridgemary North | Conservative | +13.4 pts | -2.3 pts | +15.7 pts |
| 2021 | Forton | Liberal Democrats | -5.3 pts | +10.4 pts | -15.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bridgemary North | Liberal Democrats | -3.0 pts | +10.4 pts | -13.4 pts |
| 2021 | Lee East | Labour | -21.4 pts | -8.2 pts | -13.3 pts |
| 2021 | Rowner and Holbrook | Liberal Democrats | -2.4 pts | +10.4 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bridgemary South | Conservative | +9.5 pts | -2.3 pts | +11.9 pts |
| 2021 | Brockhurst | Liberal Democrats | +21.7 pts | +10.4 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2021 | Peel Common | Conservative | -13.4 pts | -2.3 pts | -11.0 pts |
| 2021 | Hardway | Labour | +1.5 pts | -8.2 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2021 | Elson | Labour | -0.2 pts | -8.2 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2021 | Lee East | Conservative | -9.8 pts | -2.3 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2021 | Grange | Labour | -0.9 pts | -8.2 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2021 | Privett | Conservative | -9.6 pts | -2.3 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2021 | Anglesey | Labour | -15.1 pts | -8.2 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2021 | Privett | Labour | -1.2 pts | -8.2 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2021 | Leesland | Liberal Democrats | +3.6 pts | +10.4 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2021 | Rowner and Holbrook | Labour | -1.4 pts | -8.2 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2021 | Town | Conservative | +4.1 pts | -2.3 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bridgemary South | Liberal Democrats | +4.0 pts | +10.4 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2021 | Rowner and Holbrook | Conservative | +3.8 pts | -2.3 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2021 | Leesland | Conservative | -8.1 pts | -2.3 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bridgemary South | Labour | -13.6 pts | -8.2 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2021 | Alverstoke | Labour | -12.5 pts | -8.2 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2021 | Hardway | Conservative | +1.8 pts | -2.3 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2021 | Brockhurst | Conservative | -6.0 pts | -2.3 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Grange | Conservative | -5.9 pts | -2.3 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Grange | Liberal Democrats | +6.8 pts | +10.4 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2021 | Leesland | Green | -5.6 pts | -2.1 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2021 | Brockhurst | Labour | -4.9 pts | -8.2 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Bridgemary North | Labour | -10.4 pts | -8.2 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Forton | Labour | -9.1 pts | -8.2 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Forton | Conservative | -1.5 pts | -2.3 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Lee West | Labour | -7.4 pts | -8.2 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Lee West | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -2.3 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Bridgemary North | Labour | -50.9 pts | -3.7 pts | -47.1 pts |
| 2018 | Grange | Conservative | +22.4 pts | -1.1 pts | +23.5 pts |
| 2018 | Brockhurst | Liberal Democrats | -15.5 pts | +7.9 pts | -23.4 pts |
| 2018 | Hardway | Conservative | -18.2 pts | -1.1 pts | -17.1 pts |
| 2018 | Hardway | Liberal Democrats | +24.9 pts | +7.9 pts | +16.9 pts |
| 2018 | Grange | Liberal Democrats | -7.3 pts | +7.9 pts | -15.3 pts |
| 2018 | Town | Labour | +10.6 pts | -3.7 pts | +14.4 pts |
| 2018 | Grange | Labour | +10.0 pts | -3.7 pts | +13.7 pts |
| 2018 | Bridgemary South | Labour | -17.3 pts | -3.7 pts | -13.6 pts |
| 2018 | Lee East | Labour | +9.7 pts | -3.7 pts | +13.4 pts |
| 2018 | Leesland | Liberal Democrats | -5.0 pts | +7.9 pts | -12.9 pts |
| 2018 | Lee West | Labour | +7.4 pts | -3.7 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2018 | Forton | Conservative | +9.7 pts | -1.1 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2018 | Bridgemary South | Conservative | -10.3 pts | -1.1 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2018 | Brockhurst | Conservative | +7.1 pts | -1.1 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2018 | Leesland | Conservative | +6.7 pts | -1.1 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2018 | Brockhurst | Labour | +3.6 pts | -3.7 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2018 | Peel Common | Labour | +3.4 pts | -3.7 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2018 | Elson | Conservative | -8.1 pts | -1.1 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2018 | Privett | Conservative | -7.4 pts | -1.1 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2018 | Rowner and Holbrook | Conservative | -5.9 pts | -1.1 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2018 | Alverstoke | Conservative | +3.5 pts | -1.1 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2018 | Forton | Labour | +0.8 pts | -3.7 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2018 | Rowner and Holbrook | Labour | -8.2 pts | -3.7 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2018 | Lee West | Conservative | +3.4 pts | -1.1 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2018 | Forton | Liberal Democrats | +12.4 pts | +7.9 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2018 | Town | Conservative | +2.1 pts | -1.1 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2018 | Hardway | Labour | -6.6 pts | -3.7 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Anglesey | Labour | -1.0 pts | -3.7 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Privett | Labour | -6.0 pts | -3.7 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Peel Common | Conservative | -3.4 pts | -1.1 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Anglesey | Conservative | +1.0 pts | -1.1 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Elson | Labour | -5.4 pts | -3.7 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Leesland | Labour | -2.2 pts | -3.7 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Lee East | Conservative | +0.1 pts | -1.1 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Elson | Liberal Democrats | +6.7 pts | +7.9 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Bridgemary North | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -1.1 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2018 | Brockhurst | Green | -0.9 pts | +0.0 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Leesland | Green | +0.5 pts | +0.0 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Alverstoke | Labour | -3.5 pts | -3.7 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2016 | Bridgemary South | Conservative | +30.8 pts | +7.3 pts | +23.5 pts |
| 2016 | Hardway | Conservative | -13.7 pts | +7.3 pts | -21.0 pts |
| 2016 | Grange | Liberal Democrats | -18.3 pts | +2.6 pts | -20.9 pts |
| 2016 | Peel Common | Conservative | +28.0 pts | +7.3 pts | +20.7 pts |
| 2016 | Brockhurst | Liberal Democrats | +21.7 pts | +2.6 pts | +19.0 pts |
| 2016 | Grange | Conservative | -8.0 pts | +7.3 pts | -15.4 pts |
| 2016 | Anglesey | Conservative | -7.2 pts | +7.3 pts | -14.6 pts |
| 2016 | Leesland | Liberal Democrats | -11.6 pts | +2.6 pts | -14.3 pts |
| 2016 | Hardway | Labour | -13.4 pts | +0.4 pts | -13.8 pts |
| 2016 | Privett | Labour | +13.8 pts | +0.4 pts | +13.4 pts |
| 2016 | Forton | Conservative | -3.2 pts | +7.3 pts | -10.5 pts |
| 2016 | Town | Conservative | +16.6 pts | +7.3 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2016 | Town | Labour | -8.2 pts | +0.4 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2016 | Lee East | Labour | +8.9 pts | +0.4 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2016 | Leesland | Conservative | -0.7 pts | +7.3 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2016 | Rowner and Holbrook | Labour | -7.6 pts | +0.4 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2016 | Bridgemary North | Conservative | -0.5 pts | +7.3 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2016 | Alverstoke | Labour | -7.4 pts | +0.4 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2016 | Anglesey | Labour | +7.2 pts | +0.4 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2016 | Rowner and Holbrook | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.0 pts | -12.6 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2016 | Privett | Conservative | +13.7 pts | +7.3 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2016 | Rowner and Holbrook | Conservative | +13.6 pts | +7.3 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2016 | Forton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.6 pts | -12.6 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2016 | Elson | Labour | +5.6 pts | +0.4 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2016 | Elson | Conservative | +12.2 pts | +7.3 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2016 | Brockhurst | Conservative | +3.0 pts | +7.3 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2016 | Forton | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | +2.6 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2016 | Forton | Labour | +4.0 pts | +0.4 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2016 | Peel Common | Labour | +3.7 pts | +0.4 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2016 | Lee East | Conservative | +10.5 pts | +7.3 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2016 | Bridgemary South | Labour | -2.6 pts | +0.4 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2016 | Elson | Liberal Democrats | +0.2 pts | +2.6 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2016 | Lee West | Conservative | +9.7 pts | +7.3 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2016 | Grange | Labour | +1.3 pts | +0.4 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2016 | Lee East | Green | +3.0 pts | +2.2 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2016 | Lee West | Labour | -0.2 pts | +0.4 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2016 | Brockhurst | Labour | +0.1 pts | +0.4 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2016 | Bridgemary North | Labour | +0.5 pts | +0.4 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2016 | Leesland | Labour | +0.3 pts | +0.4 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2016 | Alverstoke | Conservative | +7.4 pts | +7.3 pts | +0.1 pts |