Hambleton: wards that bucked the trend
Hambleton: in 2019, 11 ward results beat the expected swing and 18 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Northallerton North and Brompton (+24.3 pts actual vs -6.3 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Northallerton North and Brompton | Independent | +24.3 pts | -6.3 pts | +30.6 pts |
| 2019 | Bedale | Green | +27.1 pts | +2.7 pts | +24.5 pts |
| 2019 | Northallerton South | Conservative | +22.0 pts | +0.5 pts | +21.6 pts |
| 2019 | Great Ayton | Liberal Democrats | +21.4 pts | +4.3 pts | +17.2 pts |
| 2019 | Osmotherley and Swainby | Conservative | +16.6 pts | +0.5 pts | +16.2 pts |
| 2019 | Romanby | Conservative | +16.1 pts | +0.5 pts | +15.7 pts |
| 2019 | Northallerton North and Brompton | Labour | -12.2 pts | +2.2 pts | -14.3 pts |
| 2019 | Stokesley | Liberal Democrats | +18.0 pts | +4.3 pts | +13.8 pts |
| 2019 | Great Ayton | Labour | -10.8 pts | +2.2 pts | -13.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hutton Rudby | Conservative | -11.3 pts | +0.5 pts | -11.8 pts |
| 2019 | Osmotherley and Swainby | Labour | -9.0 pts | +2.2 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2019 | Great Ayton | Conservative | -10.6 pts | +0.5 pts | -11.1 pts |
| 2019 | Stokesley | Labour | -8.4 pts | +2.2 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2019 | Bedale | Labour | -8.0 pts | +2.2 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2019 | Appleton Wiske and Smeatons | Green | +12.5 pts | +2.7 pts | +9.9 pts |
| 2019 | Appleton Wiske and Smeatons | Conservative | -7.4 pts | +0.5 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hutton Rudby | Labour | -5.5 pts | +2.2 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Sowerby and Topcliffe | Conservative | +7.7 pts | +0.5 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Easingwold | Conservative | -6.7 pts | +0.5 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2019 | Northallerton South | Labour | -4.4 pts | +2.2 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2019 | Romanby | Labour | -3.9 pts | +2.2 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2019 | Thirsk | Conservative | +5.9 pts | +0.5 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Easingwold | Independent | -11.0 pts | -6.3 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2019 | Stokesley | Conservative | -3.8 pts | +0.5 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Tanfield | Conservative | -3.5 pts | +0.5 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Morton-on-Swale | Labour | -1.5 pts | +2.2 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2019 | Northallerton North and Brompton | Conservative | -2.5 pts | +0.5 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Bedale | Conservative | -0.6 pts | +0.5 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Morton-on-Swale | Conservative | +1.5 pts | +0.5 pts | +1.0 pts |