Psephology.AI

    Hampshire: wards that bucked the trend

    Hampshire: in 2021, 128 ward results beat the expected swing and 98 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Winchester Downlands (-31.4 pts actual vs -1.6 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Hampshire: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2021Winchester DownlandsConservative-31.4 pts-1.6 pts-29.8 pts
    2021Whitehill, Bordon and LindfordConservative-30.5 pts-1.6 pts-28.9 pts
    2021Hartley Wintney and Yateley WestLiberal Democrats-26.5 pts-0.1 pts-26.4 pts
    2021Hartley Wintney and Yateley WestConservative+23.4 pts-1.6 pts+25.0 pts
    2021LeeLiberal Democrats+18.6 pts-0.1 pts+18.7 pts
    2021West End and Horton HeathConservative+15.1 pts-1.6 pts+16.7 pts
    2021Basingstoke NorthLabour-15.6 pts+0.9 pts-16.4 pts
    2021HardwayConservative-17.7 pts-1.6 pts-16.1 pts
    2021Fareham TownLiberal Democrats-15.7 pts-0.1 pts-15.6 pts
    2021Fareham PortchesterConservative+13.5 pts-1.6 pts+15.1 pts
    2021Farnborough WestConservative+12.8 pts-1.6 pts+14.4 pts
    2021Fareham CroftonConservative+12.6 pts-1.6 pts+14.3 pts
    2021BridgemaryLiberal Democrats+13.6 pts-0.1 pts+13.7 pts
    2021Andover NorthLiberal Democrats-13.2 pts-0.1 pts-13.1 pts
    2021West End and Horton HeathLiberal Democrats-13.1 pts-0.1 pts-13.0 pts
    2021Fareham PortchesterLiberal Democrats-13.1 pts-0.1 pts-13.0 pts
    2021LeeConservative-14.2 pts-1.6 pts-12.6 pts
    2021Church Crookham and EwshotConservative+10.9 pts-1.6 pts+12.5 pts
    2021Bishopstoke and Fair OakIndependent+12.4 pts+0.4 pts+12.0 pts
    2021Tadley and BaughurstLiberal Democrats-11.9 pts-0.1 pts-11.9 pts
    2021Eastleigh NorthConservative+10.1 pts-1.6 pts+11.7 pts
    2021Fareham SarisburyConservative-12.8 pts-1.6 pts-11.2 pts
    2021CallevaConservative-12.5 pts-1.6 pts-10.9 pts
    2021Basingstoke CentralLabour-10.0 pts+0.9 pts-10.9 pts
    2021Winchester Southern ParishesLiberal Democrats+10.7 pts-0.1 pts+10.8 pts
    2021Candovers, Oakley and OvertonLiberal Democrats+10.7 pts-0.1 pts+10.7 pts
    2021BrockenhurstGreen+11.4 pts+0.9 pts+10.6 pts
    2021Odiham and HookLiberal Democrats+10.2 pts-0.1 pts+10.3 pts
    2021Farnborough SouthLiberal Democrats+10.0 pts-0.1 pts+10.0 pts
    2021CatheringtonConservative-11.6 pts-1.6 pts-10.0 pts
    2021Winchester Southern ParishesConservative-11.5 pts-1.6 pts-9.9 pts
    2021Eastleigh NorthUK Independence Party (UKIP)-13.6 pts-3.7 pts-9.8 pts
    2021Whitchurch and The CleresLiberal Democrats-9.8 pts-0.1 pts-9.7 pts
    2021Farnborough NorthConservative+7.9 pts-1.6 pts+9.6 pts
    2021Hedge End and West End SouthConservative+7.8 pts-1.6 pts+9.4 pts
    2021Eastleigh SouthLiberal Democrats-9.4 pts-0.1 pts-9.3 pts
    2021Farnborough WestLabour+10.1 pts+0.9 pts+9.2 pts
    2021Bishopstoke and Fair OakLiberal Democrats-9.3 pts-0.1 pts-9.2 pts
    2021Leesland and TownLiberal Democrats+9.1 pts-0.1 pts+9.2 pts
    2021Eastleigh NorthLabour+10.0 pts+0.9 pts+9.2 pts
    2021Chandler's FordLiberal Democrats+9.1 pts-0.1 pts+9.2 pts
    2021Totton South and MarchwoodLiberal Democrats-9.0 pts-0.1 pts-8.9 pts
    2021HardwayLiberal Democrats+8.8 pts-0.1 pts+8.8 pts
    2021RingwoodLiberal Democrats-8.8 pts-0.1 pts-8.7 pts
    2021Andover SouthConservative+6.5 pts-1.6 pts+8.1 pts
    2021Yateley East and BlackwaterConservative+6.5 pts-1.6 pts+8.1 pts
    2021Fareham CroftonLiberal Democrats-8.0 pts-0.1 pts-8.0 pts
    2021Lyndhurst and FordingbridgeGreen+8.7 pts+0.9 pts+7.9 pts
    2021Eastleigh NorthLiberal Democrats-7.9 pts-0.1 pts-7.8 pts
    2021Fleet TownConservative+6.2 pts-1.6 pts+7.8 pts
    2021Eastleigh SouthConservative+6.1 pts-1.6 pts+7.8 pts
    2021Lymington and BoldreConservative-9.1 pts-1.6 pts-7.5 pts
    2021Fareham WarsashLiberal Democrats+7.4 pts-0.1 pts+7.5 pts
    2021Leesland and TownConservative-9.0 pts-1.6 pts-7.3 pts
    2021Aldershot NorthLabour+8.0 pts+0.9 pts+7.2 pts
    2021Test Valley CentralConservative-8.8 pts-1.6 pts-7.2 pts
    2021Botley and Hedge End NorthConservative+5.5 pts-1.6 pts+7.1 pts
    2021Petersfield HangersGreen+8.0 pts+0.9 pts+7.1 pts
    2021Bishopstoke and Fair OakConservative+5.4 pts-1.6 pts+7.0 pts
    2021Whitehill, Bordon and LindfordLiberal Democrats-7.0 pts-0.1 pts-7.0 pts
    2021Liphook, Headley and GrayshottConservative-8.6 pts-1.6 pts-6.9 pts
    2021Farnborough WestLiberal Democrats+6.8 pts-0.1 pts+6.9 pts
    2021Lymington and BoldreLiberal Democrats+6.8 pts-0.1 pts+6.9 pts
    2021BridgemaryLabour-5.9 pts+0.9 pts-6.8 pts
    2021Winchester WestgateConservative-8.2 pts-1.6 pts-6.6 pts
    2021Tadley and BaughurstConservative+5.0 pts-1.6 pts+6.6 pts
    2021CatheringtonLiberal Democrats+6.5 pts-0.1 pts+6.6 pts
    2021RingwoodGreen+7.4 pts+0.9 pts+6.5 pts
    2021Basingstoke NorthConservative+4.8 pts-1.6 pts+6.4 pts
    2021Aldershot SouthConservative+4.8 pts-1.6 pts+6.4 pts
    2021Eastleigh SouthLabour+7.2 pts+0.9 pts+6.4 pts
    2021Petersfield ButserGreen+7.1 pts+0.9 pts+6.3 pts
    2021CallevaLabour-5.4 pts+0.9 pts-6.2 pts
    2021Aldershot NorthLiberal Democrats+6.2 pts-0.1 pts+6.2 pts
    2021Petersfield HangersConservative-7.8 pts-1.6 pts-6.1 pts
    2021Fareham TitchfieldConservative-7.7 pts-1.6 pts-6.1 pts
    2021Farnborough SouthIndependent-5.6 pts+0.4 pts-6.0 pts
    2021BrockenhurstLiberal Democrats-6.1 pts-0.1 pts-6.0 pts
    2021Lyndhurst and FordingbridgeConservative-7.6 pts-1.6 pts-6.0 pts
    2021Chandler's FordConservative-7.6 pts-1.6 pts-5.9 pts
    2021New Milton North, Milford and HordleConservative-7.5 pts-1.6 pts-5.9 pts
    2021Totton South and MarchwoodConservative+4.2 pts-1.6 pts+5.8 pts
    2021HambleLabour+6.6 pts+0.9 pts+5.7 pts
    2021Fareham WarsashLabour+6.5 pts+0.9 pts+5.6 pts
    2021Winchester Southern ParishesGreen+6.5 pts+0.9 pts+5.6 pts
    2021New Milton North, Milford and HordleLiberal Democrats-5.5 pts-0.1 pts-5.5 pts
    2021Farnborough NorthLabour+6.2 pts+0.9 pts+5.4 pts
    2021Tadley and BaughurstLabour+6.1 pts+0.9 pts+5.3 pts
    2021Winchester WestgateGreen+6.1 pts+0.9 pts+5.2 pts
    2021Winchester EastgateLiberal Democrats+5.2 pts-0.1 pts+5.2 pts
    2021Test Valley CentralLiberal Democrats+5.1 pts-0.1 pts+5.1 pts
    2021South WatersideConservative-6.7 pts-1.6 pts-5.1 pts
    2021Bishops WalthamGreen+5.9 pts+0.9 pts+5.0 pts
    2021Alton RuralConservative-6.6 pts-1.6 pts-5.0 pts
    2021Alton RuralLiberal Democrats+4.9 pts-0.1 pts+5.0 pts
    2021South WatersideLiberal Democrats+4.9 pts-0.1 pts+5.0 pts
    2021Odiham and HookConservative-6.5 pts-1.6 pts-4.8 pts
    2021Bishops WalthamConservative-6.4 pts-1.6 pts-4.8 pts
    2021Candovers, Oakley and OvertonLabour+5.5 pts+0.9 pts+4.7 pts
    2021LoddonConservative-6.3 pts-1.6 pts-4.7 pts
    2021Totton North and Netley MarshLiberal Democrats-4.7 pts-0.1 pts-4.6 pts
    2021LeeLabour+5.4 pts+0.9 pts+4.5 pts
    2021Alton RuralGreen+5.4 pts+0.9 pts+4.5 pts
    2021Lymington and BoldreIndependent-4.1 pts+0.4 pts-4.5 pts
    2021RingwoodLabour+5.4 pts+0.9 pts+4.5 pts
    2021Basingstoke CentralConservative+2.9 pts-1.6 pts+4.5 pts
    2021CatheringtonGreen+5.3 pts+0.9 pts+4.5 pts
    2021Winchester DownlandsLabour-3.6 pts+0.9 pts-4.4 pts
    2021HardwayLabour+5.2 pts+0.9 pts+4.4 pts
    2021Basingstoke South WestConservative-5.9 pts-1.6 pts-4.3 pts
    2021Whitehill, Bordon and LindfordLabour-3.4 pts+0.9 pts-4.3 pts
    2021Lymington and BoldreGreen+5.1 pts+0.9 pts+4.2 pts
    2021Fareham TownGreen+5.0 pts+0.9 pts+4.2 pts
    2021Eastleigh SouthUK Independence Party (UKIP)-7.8 pts-3.7 pts-4.1 pts
    2021HambleConservative+2.4 pts-1.6 pts+4.0 pts
    2021Hartley Wintney and Yateley WestLabour+4.8 pts+0.9 pts+4.0 pts
    2021Whitchurch and The CleresLabour+4.8 pts+0.9 pts+4.0 pts
    2021Winchester EastgateLabour-3.0 pts+0.9 pts-3.9 pts
    2021Farnborough SouthLabour+4.7 pts+0.9 pts+3.9 pts
    2021Andover WestUK Independence Party (UKIP)-7.5 pts-3.7 pts-3.8 pts
    2021Fareham CroftonLabour+4.6 pts+0.9 pts+3.8 pts
    2021North West HavantConservative+2.2 pts-1.6 pts+3.8 pts
    2021Andover SouthLiberal Democrats-3.8 pts-0.1 pts-3.7 pts
    2021Leesland and TownLabour+4.6 pts+0.9 pts+3.7 pts
    2021Botley and Hedge End NorthLiberal Democrats-3.7 pts-0.1 pts-3.7 pts
    2021Fareham SarisburyLabour+4.5 pts+0.9 pts+3.7 pts
    2021Romsey TownLiberal Democrats-3.6 pts-0.1 pts-3.5 pts
    2021BaddesleyConservative-5.1 pts-1.6 pts-3.4 pts
    2021Totton North and Netley MarshLabour-2.6 pts+0.9 pts-3.4 pts
    2021Alton TownLiberal Democrats+3.3 pts-0.1 pts+3.3 pts
    2021Botley and Hedge End NorthLabour+4.1 pts+0.9 pts+3.3 pts
    2021BridgemaryConservative+1.6 pts-1.6 pts+3.3 pts
    2021Basingstoke South WestLabour+4.1 pts+0.9 pts+3.2 pts
    2021LoddonLabour+4.1 pts+0.9 pts+3.2 pts
    2021Andover NorthConservative+1.6 pts-1.6 pts+3.2 pts
    2021Basingstoke CentralLiberal Democrats+3.1 pts-0.1 pts+3.2 pts
    2021Farnborough NorthLiberal Democrats+3.0 pts-0.1 pts+3.1 pts
    2021Winchester EastgateConservative-4.6 pts-1.6 pts-3.0 pts
    2021West End and Horton HeathLabour+3.9 pts+0.9 pts+3.0 pts
    2021Andover WestLiberal Democrats+2.9 pts-0.1 pts+3.0 pts
    2021Romsey RuralConservative+1.3 pts-1.6 pts+2.9 pts
    2021Liphook, Headley and GrayshottLiberal Democrats-3.0 pts-0.1 pts-2.9 pts
    2021Fareham TitchfieldLabour+3.8 pts+0.9 pts+2.9 pts
    2021Andover WestLabour-2.0 pts+0.9 pts-2.9 pts
    2021Alton TownLabour+3.7 pts+0.9 pts+2.9 pts
    2021Aldershot SouthLiberal Democrats+2.8 pts-0.1 pts+2.9 pts
    2021HambleLiberal Democrats-2.9 pts-0.1 pts-2.8 pts
    2021Itchen ValleyLiberal Democrats-2.9 pts-0.1 pts-2.8 pts
    2021North West HavantGreen+3.7 pts+0.9 pts+2.8 pts
    2021Alton TownConservative-4.4 pts-1.6 pts-2.8 pts
    2021Bishopstoke and Fair OakUK Independence Party (UKIP)-6.4 pts-3.7 pts-2.6 pts
    2021Yateley East and BlackwaterLiberal Democrats-2.7 pts-0.1 pts-2.6 pts
    2021Andover WestConservative+1.0 pts-1.6 pts+2.6 pts
    2021Fleet TownLabour-1.6 pts+0.9 pts-2.5 pts
    2021Winchester WestgateLiberal Democrats-2.5 pts-0.1 pts-2.4 pts
    2021Whitchurch and The CleresConservative-4.0 pts-1.6 pts-2.4 pts
    2021RingwoodConservative-4.0 pts-1.6 pts-2.3 pts
    2021BaddesleyLiberal Democrats+2.3 pts-0.1 pts+2.3 pts
    2021West End and Horton HeathUK Independence Party (UKIP)-1.5 pts-3.7 pts+2.2 pts
    2021BrockenhurstLabour+3.0 pts+0.9 pts+2.1 pts
    2021Andover SouthLabour-1.1 pts+0.9 pts-2.0 pts
    2021Farnborough SouthConservative+0.3 pts-1.6 pts+1.9 pts
    2021Petersfield ButserConservative-3.5 pts-1.6 pts-1.9 pts
    2021Fareham TownConservative-3.5 pts-1.6 pts-1.9 pts
    2021Basingstoke North WestConservative+0.2 pts-1.6 pts+1.8 pts
    2021Totton North and Netley MarshConservative+0.2 pts-1.6 pts+1.8 pts
    2021Dibden and HytheConservative+0.1 pts-1.6 pts+1.7 pts
    2021BrockenhurstConservative-3.3 pts-1.6 pts-1.7 pts
    2021New MiltonConservative+0.1 pts-1.6 pts+1.7 pts
    2021New MiltonLiberal Democrats+1.6 pts-0.1 pts+1.7 pts
    2021North West HavantLabour+2.5 pts+0.9 pts+1.7 pts
    2021North West HavantLiberal Democrats-1.6 pts-0.1 pts-1.6 pts
    2021Hedge End and West End SouthLiberal Democrats-1.6 pts-0.1 pts-1.5 pts
    2021Andover SouthGreen+2.4 pts+0.9 pts+1.5 pts
    2021Bishops WalthamLabour-0.6 pts+0.9 pts-1.5 pts
    2021Basingstoke South EastConservative-0.2 pts-1.6 pts+1.4 pts
    2021Fareham WarsashConservative-0.2 pts-1.6 pts+1.4 pts
    2021Winchester WestgateLabour-0.6 pts+0.9 pts-1.4 pts
    2021Dibden and HytheLabour-0.6 pts+0.9 pts-1.4 pts
    2021Winchester EastgateGreen+2.3 pts+0.9 pts+1.4 pts
    2021Itchen ValleyConservative-0.2 pts-1.6 pts+1.4 pts
    2021Liphook, Headley and GrayshottLabour+2.2 pts+0.9 pts+1.4 pts
    2021Totton South and MarchwoodLabour-0.5 pts+0.9 pts-1.3 pts
    2021Fareham PortchesterLabour-0.4 pts+0.9 pts-1.3 pts
    2021Fareham TownLabour+2.1 pts+0.9 pts+1.3 pts
    2021Romsey TownConservative-0.4 pts-1.6 pts+1.3 pts
    2021New MiltonLabour+2.1 pts+0.9 pts+1.2 pts
    2021Bishopstoke and Fair OakLabour-0.4 pts+0.9 pts-1.2 pts
    2021Bishops WalthamLiberal Democrats+1.1 pts-0.1 pts+1.2 pts
    2021Itchen ValleyGreen+2.0 pts+0.9 pts+1.1 pts
    2021Hedge End and West End SouthLabour+2.0 pts+0.9 pts+1.1 pts
    2021Basingstoke NorthLiberal Democrats+1.0 pts-0.1 pts+1.1 pts
    2021Winchester DownlandsGreen-0.2 pts+0.9 pts-1.1 pts
    2021Lyndhurst and FordingbridgeLabour+1.9 pts+0.9 pts+1.1 pts
    2021Basingstoke North WestLiberal Democrats+1.0 pts-0.1 pts+1.1 pts
    2021Itchen ValleyLabour-0.1 pts+0.9 pts-1.0 pts
    2021Fareham SarisburyLiberal Democrats-1.0 pts-0.1 pts-0.9 pts
    2021Petersfield HangersLabour+0.0 pts+0.9 pts-0.8 pts
    2021Alton RuralLabour+0.0 pts+0.9 pts-0.8 pts
    2021Chandler's FordLabour+1.7 pts+0.9 pts+0.8 pts
    2021Lyndhurst and FordingbridgeLiberal Democrats-0.9 pts-0.1 pts-0.8 pts
    2021Fareham TitchfieldLiberal Democrats-0.9 pts-0.1 pts-0.8 pts
    2021Basingstoke South EastLabour+1.6 pts+0.9 pts+0.7 pts
    2021Candovers, Oakley and OvertonConservative-2.3 pts-1.6 pts-0.7 pts
    2021South WatersideLabour+1.5 pts+0.9 pts+0.7 pts
    2021Basingstoke South EastLiberal Democrats-0.7 pts-0.1 pts-0.7 pts
    2021South WatersideGreen+0.3 pts+0.9 pts-0.6 pts
    2021Test Valley CentralLabour+0.3 pts+0.9 pts-0.6 pts
    2021LoddonLiberal Democrats+0.5 pts-0.1 pts+0.5 pts
    2021Church Crookham and EwshotLabour+0.3 pts+0.9 pts-0.5 pts
    2021Romsey TownLabour+1.4 pts+0.9 pts+0.5 pts
    2021Lymington and BoldreLabour+1.4 pts+0.9 pts+0.5 pts
    2021Petersfield ButserLabour+1.3 pts+0.9 pts+0.5 pts
    2021BaddesleyLabour+0.4 pts+0.9 pts-0.4 pts
    2021Basingstoke South WestLiberal Democrats+0.3 pts-0.1 pts+0.4 pts
    2021Romsey RuralLiberal Democrats-0.4 pts-0.1 pts-0.4 pts
    2021Farnborough SouthUK Independence Party (UKIP)-3.4 pts-3.7 pts+0.4 pts
    2021Odiham and HookLabour+1.2 pts+0.9 pts+0.4 pts
    2021Petersfield ButserLiberal Democrats+0.2 pts-0.1 pts+0.3 pts
    2021Winchester EastgateJACP+0.2 pts-0.1 pts+0.3 pts
    2021Aldershot NorthConservative-1.9 pts-1.6 pts-0.2 pts
    2021Petersfield HangersLiberal Democrats-0.2 pts-0.1 pts-0.2 pts
    2021Romsey RuralLabour+1.0 pts+0.9 pts+0.1 pts
    2021New Milton North, Milford and HordleLabour+1.0 pts+0.9 pts+0.1 pts
    2021Dibden and HytheLiberal Democrats+0.0 pts-0.1 pts+0.1 pts
    2021Test Valley CentralGreen+0.9 pts+0.9 pts+0.0 pts