Harrow: wards that bucked the trend

Name: Harrow trend-bucking wards
Creator: Psephology.AI

Harrow: in 2018, 27 ward results beat the expected swing and 31 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Belmont (-7.6 pts actual vs +7.1 pts expected).

Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

Harrow: ward results against the expected swing
Year	Ward	Party	Actual swing	Expected swing	Gap
2018	Belmont	Labour	-7.6 pts	+7.1 pts	-14.6 pts
2018	Wealdstone	Labour	+21.1 pts	+7.1 pts	+14.1 pts
2018	Pinner South	Labour	-6.2 pts	+7.1 pts	-13.2 pts
2018	Headstone North	Labour	+20.1 pts	+7.1 pts	+13.0 pts
2018	Headstone North	Conservative	+16.2 pts	+4.1 pts	+12.0 pts
2018	Kenton East	Conservative	+15.5 pts	+4.1 pts	+11.4 pts
2018	Roxeth	Labour	+18.0 pts	+7.1 pts	+10.9 pts
2018	Belmont	Conservative	+13.7 pts	+4.1 pts	+9.6 pts
2018	Canons	Labour	-2.5 pts	+7.1 pts	-9.5 pts
2018	Roxbourne	Labour	+16.4 pts	+7.1 pts	+9.4 pts
2018	Harrow on the Hill	Conservative	-4.3 pts	+4.1 pts	-8.5 pts
2018	Hatch End	Labour	-0.7 pts	+7.1 pts	-7.8 pts
2018	Harrow Weald	Liberal Democrats	-7.0 pts	+0.6 pts	-7.7 pts
2018	Headstone South	Labour	+14.5 pts	+7.1 pts	+7.4 pts
2018	Stanmore Park	Labour	-0.2 pts	+7.1 pts	-7.2 pts
2018	Harrow on the Hill	Labour	+14.3 pts	+7.1 pts	+7.2 pts
2018	Pinner	Labour	+0.0 pts	+7.1 pts	-7.1 pts
2018	Wealdstone	Conservative	-2.7 pts	+4.1 pts	-6.8 pts
2018	Marlborough	Labour	+13.5 pts	+7.1 pts	+6.4 pts
2018	Pinner	Conservative	-2.0 pts	+4.1 pts	-6.1 pts
2018	Queensbury	Labour	+13.1 pts	+7.1 pts	+6.0 pts
2018	Rayners Lane	Liberal Democrats	+6.4 pts	+0.6 pts	+5.7 pts
2018	Greenhill	Green	+5.8 pts	+0.3 pts	+5.6 pts
2018	Greenhill	Liberal Democrats	-4.5 pts	+0.6 pts	-5.1 pts
2018	Edgware	Conservative	-1.0 pts	+4.1 pts	-5.1 pts
2018	Kenton East	Labour	+2.2 pts	+7.1 pts	-4.9 pts
2018	Roxbourne	Liberal Democrats	-3.8 pts	+0.6 pts	-4.4 pts
2018	Kenton West	Labour	+2.6 pts	+7.1 pts	-4.4 pts
2018	Headstone North	Liberal Democrats	+5.0 pts	+0.6 pts	+4.4 pts
2018	Pinner	Liberal Democrats	+4.5 pts	+0.6 pts	+3.8 pts
2018	Headstone South	Conservative	+0.3 pts	+4.1 pts	-3.8 pts
2018	Marlborough	Conservative	+0.6 pts	+4.1 pts	-3.5 pts
2018	Canons	Liberal Democrats	-2.8 pts	+0.6 pts	-3.5 pts
2018	Headstone South	Liberal Democrats	-2.8 pts	+0.6 pts	-3.5 pts
2018	Rayners Lane	Conservative	+0.9 pts	+4.1 pts	-3.2 pts
2018	Roxeth	Conservative	+1.1 pts	+4.1 pts	-3.0 pts
2018	Roxbourne	Conservative	+1.3 pts	+4.1 pts	-2.8 pts
2018	Harrow Weald	Labour	+4.3 pts	+7.1 pts	-2.7 pts
2018	Harrow Weald	Conservative	+6.8 pts	+4.1 pts	+2.7 pts
2018	Greenhill	Conservative	+1.6 pts	+4.1 pts	-2.5 pts
2018	Hatch End	Liberal Democrats	+3.1 pts	+0.6 pts	+2.5 pts
2018	Pinner South	Conservative	+1.7 pts	+4.1 pts	-2.4 pts
2018	Belmont	Liberal Democrats	-1.4 pts	+0.6 pts	-2.0 pts
2018	Hatch End	Conservative	+6.1 pts	+4.1 pts	+2.0 pts
2018	Edgware	Labour	+8.8 pts	+7.1 pts	+1.7 pts
2018	Harrow on the Hill	Liberal Democrats	+2.4 pts	+0.6 pts	+1.7 pts
2018	West Harrow	Labour	+8.5 pts	+7.1 pts	+1.4 pts
2018	Canons	Conservative	+5.3 pts	+4.1 pts	+1.2 pts
2018	West Harrow	Conservative	+3.0 pts	+4.1 pts	-1.1 pts
2018	West Harrow	Liberal Democrats	-0.4 pts	+0.6 pts	-1.1 pts
2018	Kenton West	Liberal Democrats	-0.3 pts	+0.6 pts	-1.0 pts
2018	Rayners Lane	Labour	+8.0 pts	+7.1 pts	+1.0 pts
2018	Wealdstone	Green	-0.5 pts	+0.3 pts	-0.8 pts
2018	Marlborough	Green	+0.7 pts	+0.3 pts	+0.5 pts
2018	Queensbury	Conservative	+4.5 pts	+4.1 pts	+0.4 pts
2018	Stanmore Park	Conservative	+4.3 pts	+4.1 pts	+0.2 pts
2018	Greenhill	Labour	+7.1 pts	+7.1 pts	+0.1 pts
2018	Kenton West	Conservative	+4.1 pts	+4.1 pts	-0.0 pts