Hart: wards that bucked the trend
Hart: in 2024, 19 ward results beat the expected swing and 14 trailed it. The biggest gap was Community Campaign (Hart) in Fleet West (+23.0 pts actual vs +3.3 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Fleet West | Community Campaign (Hart) | +23.0 pts | +3.3 pts | +19.7 pts |
| 2024 | Crookham West and Ewshot | Community Campaign (Hart) | +22.6 pts | +3.3 pts | +19.3 pts |
| 2024 | Yateley West | Liberal Democrats | +14.6 pts | +0.5 pts | +14.1 pts |
| 2024 | Yateley East | Liberal Democrats | -12.8 pts | +0.5 pts | -13.2 pts |
| 2024 | Hartley Wintney | Conservative | -10.2 pts | +0.9 pts | -11.1 pts |
| 2024 | Hartley Wintney | Liberal Democrats | +9.6 pts | +0.5 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2024 | Fleet West | Conservative | +9.9 pts | +0.9 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2024 | Fleet East | Liberal Democrats | -7.1 pts | +0.5 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2024 | Crookham East | Conservative | -6.5 pts | +0.9 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2024 | Yateley East | Conservative | +7.7 pts | +0.9 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2024 | Hook | Conservative | +6.7 pts | +0.9 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2024 | Blackwater and Hawley | Labour | +5.3 pts | +0.6 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2024 | Fleet East | Labour | +4.9 pts | +0.6 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2024 | Odiham | Conservative | -3.1 pts | +0.9 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2024 | Crookham West and Ewshot | Conservative | -2.8 pts | +0.9 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2024 | Fleet Central | Conservative | -2.6 pts | +0.9 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2024 | Blackwater and Hawley | Conservative | -2.5 pts | +0.9 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Yateley East | Reform UK | +3.9 pts | +0.5 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Blackwater and Hawley | Liberal Democrats | -2.8 pts | +0.5 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2024 | Fleet East | Conservative | +3.5 pts | +0.9 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2024 | Yateley East | Labour | -1.9 pts | +0.6 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Fleet Central | Community Campaign (Hart) | +1.1 pts | +3.3 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2024 | Yateley West | Conservative | -1.3 pts | +0.9 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2024 | Crookham East | Community Campaign (Hart) | +5.2 pts | +3.3 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2024 | Odiham | Liberal Democrats | +2.2 pts | +0.5 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2024 | Fleet West | Labour | +2.1 pts | +0.6 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2024 | Odiham | Green | +0.1 pts | -0.6 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2024 | Crookham East | Labour | +1.3 pts | +0.6 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2024 | Fleet East | Green | -1.3 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2024 | Fleet Central | The Official Monster Raving Loony Party | +0.6 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2024 | Fleet Central | Labour | +0.8 pts | +0.6 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2024 | Odiham | Labour | +0.8 pts | +0.6 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2024 | Hook | Labour | +0.4 pts | +0.6 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2023 | Odiham | Liberal Democrats | -21.2 pts | -5.2 pts | -16.1 pts |
| 2023 | Fleet East | Conservative | +6.9 pts | -2.4 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2023 | Hartley Wintney | Conservative | -10.9 pts | -2.4 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2023 | Yateley East | Liberal Democrats | -12.8 pts | -5.2 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2023 | Fleet West | Green | -5.2 pts | +1.6 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2023 | Hook | Conservative | -9.2 pts | -2.4 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2023 | Hartley Wintney | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | -5.2 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2023 | Fleet East | Liberal Democrats | -10.4 pts | -5.2 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2023 | Odiham | Conservative | +2.5 pts | -2.4 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2023 | Yateley West | Labour | -0.4 pts | +4.2 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2023 | Yateley West | Liberal Democrats | -1.3 pts | -5.2 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2023 | Crookham East | Conservative | +1.1 pts | -2.4 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2023 | Blackwater and Hawley | Liberal Democrats | -7.9 pts | -5.2 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2023 | Fleet East | Labour | +1.6 pts | +4.2 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2023 | Yateley East | Conservative | +0.0 pts | -2.4 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2023 | Yateley West | Conservative | -0.1 pts | -2.4 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2023 | Fleet West | Conservative | -4.4 pts | -2.4 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2023 | Fleet Central | Labour | +2.8 pts | +4.2 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Fleet Central | Conservative | -1.3 pts | -2.4 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Hook | Labour | +3.6 pts | +4.2 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Crookham West and Ewshot | Conservative | -2.8 pts | -2.4 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2023 | Blackwater and Hawley | Conservative | -2.7 pts | -2.4 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2023 | Fleet East | Green | +1.9 pts | +1.6 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Odiham | Liberal Democrats | +30.6 pts | +6.6 pts | +24.0 pts |
| 2019 | Blackwater and Hawley | Liberal Democrats | +21.7 pts | +6.6 pts | +15.1 pts |
| 2019 | Odiham | Conservative | -28.5 pts | -13.8 pts | -14.7 pts |
| 2019 | Crookham West and Ewshot | Community Campaign (Hart) | -22.5 pts | -9.1 pts | -13.3 pts |
| 2019 | Yateley East | Conservative | -1.7 pts | -13.8 pts | +12.1 pts |
| 2019 | Crookham East | Conservative | -2.1 pts | -13.8 pts | +11.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hook | Labour | -16.4 pts | -5.1 pts | -11.4 pts |
| 2019 | Fleet East | Liberal Democrats | +17.8 pts | +6.6 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hook | Liberal Democrats | -3.8 pts | +6.6 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hartley Wintney | Green | +7.0 pts | +0.9 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2019 | Odiham | Green | +6.4 pts | +0.9 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hartley Wintney | Liberal Democrats | +11.9 pts | +6.6 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hartley Wintney | Conservative | -18.7 pts | -13.8 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Yateley East | Labour | -0.3 pts | -5.1 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2019 | Yateley West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +5.4 pts | +1.0 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Fleet East | Labour | -0.8 pts | -5.1 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Fleet Central | The Official Monster Raving Loony Party | +4.5 pts | +0.3 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Yateley West | Labour | -1.3 pts | -5.1 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Yateley East | Liberal Democrats | +9.9 pts | +6.6 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Blackwater and Hawley | Conservative | -16.3 pts | -13.8 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Crookham East | Labour | -2.6 pts | -5.1 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Fleet West | Conservative | -15.9 pts | -13.8 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hook | Conservative | -11.7 pts | -13.8 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Crookham West and Ewshot | Conservative | -15.7 pts | -13.8 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Fleet Central | Labour | -3.9 pts | -5.1 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Blackwater and Hawley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +2.2 pts | +1.0 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Yateley West | Liberal Democrats | +7.7 pts | +6.6 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hook | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +2.1 pts | +1.0 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Fleet West | Labour | -4.0 pts | -5.1 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Fleet East | Conservative | -12.7 pts | -13.8 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Crookham West and Ewshot | Labour | -4.5 pts | -5.1 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Fleet Central | Conservative | -13.3 pts | -13.8 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Yateley West | Conservative | -13.9 pts | -13.8 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Fleet East | Liberal Democrats | +21.5 pts | -0.2 pts | +21.7 pts |
| 2018 | Fleet East | Conservative | -9.7 pts | +4.0 pts | -13.7 pts |
| 2018 | Fleet West | Conservative | -7.8 pts | +4.0 pts | -11.8 pts |
| 2018 | Hook | Liberal Democrats | +11.3 pts | -0.2 pts | +11.5 pts |
| 2018 | Yateley West | Conservative | +14.8 pts | +4.0 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2018 | Hook | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -19.0 pts | -8.4 pts | -10.6 pts |
| 2018 | Yateley West | Liberal Democrats | -10.2 pts | -0.2 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2018 | Yateley East | Liberal Democrats | -10.0 pts | -0.2 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2018 | Hook | Labour | +9.5 pts | +1.4 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2018 | Fleet East | Labour | -5.8 pts | +1.4 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2018 | Hook | Conservative | -1.8 pts | +4.0 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2018 | Blackwater and Hawley | Conservative | +8.9 pts | +4.0 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2018 | Hartley Wintney | Liberal Democrats | +4.2 pts | -0.2 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2018 | Yateley East | Conservative | +6.8 pts | +4.0 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Odiham | Conservative | +6.8 pts | +4.0 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Fleet Central | The Official Monster Raving Loony Party | +2.8 pts | +0.3 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2018 | Crookham East | Conservative | +1.6 pts | +4.0 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2018 | Fleet Central | Conservative | +6.2 pts | +4.0 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Crookham West and Ewshot | Labour | +3.6 pts | +1.4 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Yateley West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.5 pts | -8.4 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2018 | Yateley East | Green | -1.2 pts | +0.6 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Yateley East | Labour | -0.4 pts | +1.4 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Crookham West and Ewshot | Conservative | +2.2 pts | +4.0 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Odiham | Liberal Democrats | -2.0 pts | -0.2 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Hartley Wintney | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.9 pts | -8.4 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Hartley Wintney | Green | -0.9 pts | +0.6 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Odiham | Labour | -0.0 pts | +1.4 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Hartley Wintney | Labour | +0.3 pts | +1.4 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2018 | Fleet West | Labour | +2.3 pts | +1.4 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Fleet Central | Labour | +0.6 pts | +1.4 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2018 | Hartley Wintney | Conservative | +3.2 pts | +4.0 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2018 | Yateley West | Labour | +2.0 pts | +1.4 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2018 | Blackwater and Hawley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.0 pts | -8.4 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Crookham East | Labour | +1.3 pts | +1.4 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Blackwater and Hawley | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | -0.2 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Blackwater and Hawley | Labour | +1.4 pts | +1.4 pts | -0.0 pts |
| 2016 | Yateley West | Liberal Democrats | +29.1 pts | +6.0 pts | +23.1 pts |
| 2016 | Yateley East | Liberal Democrats | +28.9 pts | +6.0 pts | +23.0 pts |
| 2016 | Hartley Wintney | Liberal Democrats | -8.4 pts | +6.0 pts | -14.4 pts |
| 2016 | Blackwater and Hawley | Liberal Democrats | +18.9 pts | +6.0 pts | +12.9 pts |
| 2016 | Odiham | Liberal Democrats | -6.9 pts | +6.0 pts | -12.9 pts |
| 2016 | Odiham | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -13.5 pts | +11.2 pts |
| 2016 | Hook | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +10.7 pts | -0.3 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2016 | Hook | Liberal Democrats | -3.0 pts | +6.0 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2016 | Fleet West | Conservative | -4.7 pts | -13.5 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2016 | Fleet East | Conservative | -4.9 pts | -13.5 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2016 | Yateley West | Conservative | -21.9 pts | -13.5 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2016 | Hook | Conservative | -6.3 pts | -13.5 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2016 | Crookham West and Ewshot | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +5.5 pts | -0.3 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2016 | Fleet West | Liberal Democrats | +0.8 pts | +6.0 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2016 | Yateley West | Labour | -4.5 pts | +0.1 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2016 | Hartley Wintney | Conservative | -9.5 pts | -13.5 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2016 | Crookham East | Conservative | -17.3 pts | -13.5 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2016 | Yateley East | Conservative | -17.0 pts | -13.5 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2016 | Yateley East | Labour | -3.4 pts | +0.1 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2016 | Crookham West and Ewshot | Labour | -3.3 pts | +0.1 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2016 | Hartley Wintney | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +2.6 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2016 | Crookham East | Labour | -2.6 pts | +0.1 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2016 | Fleet East | Liberal Democrats | +3.4 pts | +6.0 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2016 | Yateley West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.7 pts | -0.3 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2016 | Blackwater and Hawley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.6 pts | -0.3 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2016 | Fleet West | Labour | -1.8 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2016 | Crookham West and Ewshot | Conservative | -15.3 pts | -13.5 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2016 | Blackwater and Hawley | Labour | -1.5 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2016 | Hook | Labour | -1.4 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2016 | Fleet East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +1.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2016 | Fleet Central | Labour | -1.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2016 | Fleet Central | Conservative | -12.4 pts | -13.5 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2016 | Odiham | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +0.7 pts | -0.3 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2016 | Fleet Central | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +0.6 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2016 | Blackwater and Hawley | Conservative | -13.9 pts | -13.5 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2016 | Fleet East | Labour | +0.3 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2016 | Fleet West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.4 pts | -0.3 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2016 | Fleet Central | The Official Monster Raving Loony Party | -0.1 pts | +0.0 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2015 | Blackwater and Hawley | Liberal Democrats | -37.3 pts | -2.9 pts | -34.4 pts |
| 2015 | Yateley East | Liberal Democrats | -29.5 pts | -2.9 pts | -26.6 pts |
| 2015 | Yateley West | Liberal Democrats | -25.1 pts | -2.9 pts | -22.2 pts |
| 2015 | Crookham East | CC(Hart) | -20.7 pts | +1.4 pts | -22.0 pts |
| 2015 | Hartley Wintney | Liberal Democrats | +17.6 pts | -2.9 pts | +20.5 pts |
| 2015 | Yateley East | Conservative | +25.2 pts | +9.0 pts | +16.2 pts |
| 2015 | Hartley Wintney | Conservative | -6.9 pts | +9.0 pts | -15.9 pts |
| 2015 | Odiham | Conservative | -6.2 pts | +9.0 pts | -15.2 pts |
| 2015 | Odiham | Liberal Democrats | +9.5 pts | -2.9 pts | +12.4 pts |
| 2015 | Fleet East | Conservative | -0.8 pts | +9.0 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2015 | Hook | Liberal Democrats | +5.9 pts | -2.9 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2015 | Blackwater and Hawley | Conservative | +16.8 pts | +9.0 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2015 | Odiham | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.3 pts | +2.6 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2015 | Crookham East | Conservative | +14.8 pts | +9.0 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2015 | Yateley West | Conservative | +14.6 pts | +9.0 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2015 | Hartley Wintney | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.9 pts | +2.6 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2015 | Fleet West | Conservative | +4.5 pts | +9.0 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2015 | Hook | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.7 pts | +2.6 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2015 | Yateley West | Labour | -1.2 pts | +2.5 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2015 | Crookham West and Ewshot | Conservative | +12.6 pts | +9.0 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2015 | Hook | Labour | +6.1 pts | +2.5 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2015 | Fleet West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.6 pts | +2.6 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2015 | Yateley East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.2 pts | +2.6 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2015 | Fleet East | Liberal Democrats | -5.4 pts | -2.9 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2015 | Hook | Conservative | +11.2 pts | +9.0 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2015 | Fleet West | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | -2.9 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2015 | Yateley East | Labour | +4.5 pts | +2.5 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2015 | Fleet East | Labour | +4.2 pts | +2.5 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2015 | Fleet Central | Labour | +4.2 pts | +2.5 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2015 | Fleet Central | Conservative | +7.9 pts | +9.0 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2015 | Fleet Central | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +1.7 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2015 | Fleet West | Labour | +3.2 pts | +2.5 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2015 | Fleet East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +2.1 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2015 | Crookham East | Labour | +3.0 pts | +2.5 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2015 | Crookham East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +2.9 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2015 | Fleet Central | The Official Monster Raving Loony Party | +0.2 pts | -0.0 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2015 | Blackwater and Hawley | Labour | +2.4 pts | +2.5 pts | -0.1 pts |