Hastings: wards that bucked the trend
Hastings: in 2024, 25 ward results beat the expected swing and 27 trailed it. The biggest gap was Green in Ore (+40.2 pts actual vs +13.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Ore | Green | +40.2 pts | +13.4 pts | +26.8 pts |
| 2024 | Central St Leonards | Green | -9.6 pts | +13.4 pts | -22.9 pts |
| 2024 | West St Leonards | Labour | +12.5 pts | -9.7 pts | +22.2 pts |
| 2024 | Braybrooke | Green | +35.3 pts | +13.4 pts | +22.0 pts |
| 2024 | Baird | Labour | -28.6 pts | -9.7 pts | -18.9 pts |
| 2024 | Hollington | Green | -2.9 pts | +13.4 pts | -16.3 pts |
| 2024 | Central St Leonards | Conservative | +7.0 pts | -8.7 pts | +15.7 pts |
| 2024 | Ore | Conservative | -24.1 pts | -8.7 pts | -15.3 pts |
| 2024 | Hollington | Labour | -24.4 pts | -9.7 pts | -14.7 pts |
| 2024 | Ashdown | Labour | +4.5 pts | -9.7 pts | +14.2 pts |
| 2024 | Old Hastings | Labour | -22.0 pts | -9.7 pts | -12.3 pts |
| 2024 | Tressell | Conservative | +3.4 pts | -8.7 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2024 | Conquest | Labour | +2.5 pts | -9.7 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2024 | West St Leonards | Green | +1.3 pts | +13.4 pts | -12.0 pts |
| 2024 | Wishing Tree | Green | +1.9 pts | +13.4 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2024 | Old Hastings | Green | +24.3 pts | +13.4 pts | +11.0 pts |
| 2024 | Tressell | Labour | -20.5 pts | -9.7 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2024 | Conquest | Green | +3.1 pts | +13.4 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2024 | Maze Hill | Conservative | -18.7 pts | -8.7 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2024 | Maze Hill | Labour | -0.2 pts | -9.7 pts | +9.4 pts |
| 2024 | Ore | Labour | -18.9 pts | -9.7 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2024 | Wishing Tree | Conservative | -17.7 pts | -8.7 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2024 | Ashdown | Green | +4.9 pts | +13.4 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2024 | Baird | Green | +21.7 pts | +13.4 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2024 | Braybrooke | Labour | -17.8 pts | -9.7 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2024 | Wishing Tree | Labour | -2.3 pts | -9.7 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2024 | Maze Hill | Liberal Democrats | -9.8 pts | -2.9 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2024 | Gensing | Conservative | -2.1 pts | -8.7 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2024 | Old Hastings | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -8.7 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2024 | Silverhill | Conservative | -14.9 pts | -8.7 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2024 | Conquest | Liberal Democrats | -9.0 pts | -2.9 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2024 | Silverhill | Labour | -3.6 pts | -9.7 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2024 | Maze Hill | Green | +19.0 pts | +13.4 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2024 | West St Leonards | Conservative | -14.3 pts | -8.7 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2024 | Baird | Conservative | -14.1 pts | -8.7 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2024 | Ashdown | Liberal Democrats | -7.7 pts | -2.9 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2024 | Castle | Conservative | -4.3 pts | -8.7 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2024 | Silverhill | Green | +9.6 pts | +13.4 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2024 | Tressell | Green | +17.1 pts | +13.4 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2024 | Hollington | Conservative | -5.1 pts | -8.7 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2024 | Castle | Labour | -6.8 pts | -9.7 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2024 | Gensing | Labour | -6.8 pts | -9.7 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2024 | West St Leonards | Liberal Democrats | -5.7 pts | -2.9 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2024 | Silverhill | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | -2.9 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Ashdown | Conservative | -11.2 pts | -8.7 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Conquest | Conservative | -11.0 pts | -8.7 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2024 | Braybrooke | Conservative | -10.9 pts | -8.7 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2024 | Baird | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | -2.9 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2024 | Central St Leonards | Liberal Democrats | -1.4 pts | -2.9 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2024 | Central St Leonards | Labour | -8.2 pts | -9.7 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2024 | Gensing | Green | +12.5 pts | +13.4 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2024 | Castle | Green | +14.1 pts | +13.4 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2018 | Old Hastings | Green | +25.0 pts | +3.8 pts | +21.1 pts |
| 2018 | West St Leonards | Labour | -10.3 pts | -0.4 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2018 | Hollington | Labour | +9.1 pts | -0.4 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2018 | Old Hastings | Labour | -9.9 pts | -0.4 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2018 | Hollington | Conservative | +11.3 pts | +2.2 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2018 | Wishing Tree | Conservative | +10.8 pts | +2.2 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2018 | Silverhill | Conservative | +10.6 pts | +2.2 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2018 | Central St Leonards | Labour | +6.8 pts | -0.4 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2018 | West St Leonards | Liberal Democrats | +7.9 pts | +0.9 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2018 | Old Hastings | Conservative | -4.5 pts | +2.2 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2018 | Ore | Labour | +5.5 pts | -0.4 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2018 | Castle | Liberal Democrats | -4.5 pts | +0.9 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2018 | Ashdown | Green | -1.3 pts | +3.8 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2018 | Conquest | Labour | -5.1 pts | -0.4 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2018 | Braybrooke | Labour | -5.0 pts | -0.4 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2018 | Baird | Green | -0.6 pts | +3.8 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2018 | West St Leonards | Green | -0.3 pts | +3.8 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2018 | Maze Hill | Conservative | -1.8 pts | +2.2 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2018 | Ashdown | Labour | +3.5 pts | -0.4 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2018 | Castle | Green | -0.1 pts | +3.8 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2018 | Conquest | Liberal Democrats | +4.5 pts | +0.9 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2018 | Central St Leonards | Conservative | +5.7 pts | +2.2 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2018 | Gensing | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.9 pts | -5.5 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2018 | Castle | Conservative | -1.2 pts | +2.2 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2018 | Wishing Tree | Labour | +2.9 pts | -0.4 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2018 | Baird | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | +0.9 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2018 | Braybrooke | Green | +0.9 pts | +3.8 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Maze Hill | Green | +0.9 pts | +3.8 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Castle | Labour | +2.4 pts | -0.4 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Conquest | Conservative | -0.7 pts | +2.2 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Ashdown | Liberal Democrats | -1.9 pts | +0.9 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Conquest | Green | +1.3 pts | +3.8 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2018 | Central St Leonards | Green | +6.3 pts | +3.8 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2018 | Ore | Conservative | +4.6 pts | +2.2 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2018 | Ashdown | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +2.2 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2018 | Tressell | Labour | -2.8 pts | -0.4 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2018 | Silverhill | Green | +1.8 pts | +3.8 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Tressell | Green | +1.9 pts | +3.8 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Central St Leonards | Liberal Democrats | +2.6 pts | +0.9 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Tressell | Conservative | +0.5 pts | +2.2 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Gensing | Green | +5.3 pts | +3.8 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Hollington | Green | +2.4 pts | +3.8 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Maze Hill | Labour | +1.1 pts | -0.4 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Baird | Labour | +0.8 pts | -0.4 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Gensing | Liberal Democrats | +2.0 pts | +0.9 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2018 | Maze Hill | Liberal Democrats | -0.2 pts | +0.9 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2018 | Ore | Green | +2.8 pts | +3.8 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Braybrooke | Liberal Democrats | +1.9 pts | +0.9 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Wishing Tree | Liberal Democrats | +0.1 pts | +0.9 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2018 | West St Leonards | Conservative | +2.6 pts | +2.2 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Tressell | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | +0.9 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Wishing Tree | Green | +3.5 pts | +3.8 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Hollington | Liberal Democrats | +0.6 pts | +0.9 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Gensing | Conservative | +1.8 pts | +2.2 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Baird | Conservative | +2.0 pts | +2.2 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Ore | Liberal Democrats | +1.0 pts | +0.9 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Silverhill | Liberal Democrats | +1.0 pts | +0.9 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Silverhill | Labour | -0.3 pts | -0.4 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Gensing | Labour | -0.3 pts | -0.4 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Braybrooke | Conservative | +2.2 pts | +2.2 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2016 | Ore | Labour | -14.2 pts | +1.0 pts | -15.2 pts |
| 2016 | Ashdown | Conservative | +14.2 pts | -1.0 pts | +15.2 pts |
| 2016 | Central St Leonards | Independent | +14.1 pts | +0.9 pts | +13.2 pts |
| 2016 | Braybrooke | Labour | +13.3 pts | +1.0 pts | +12.3 pts |
| 2016 | Silverhill | Green | -7.6 pts | +3.5 pts | -11.1 pts |
| 2016 | Maze Hill | Labour | -9.3 pts | +1.0 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2016 | Wishing Tree | Conservative | -11.2 pts | -1.0 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2016 | Conquest | Conservative | +8.9 pts | -1.0 pts | +9.9 pts |
| 2016 | Braybrooke | Green | -6.2 pts | +3.5 pts | -9.7 pts |
| 2016 | Castle | Labour | -8.2 pts | +1.0 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2016 | West St Leonards | Conservative | -9.7 pts | -1.0 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2016 | Baird | Labour | +9.2 pts | +1.0 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2016 | Baird | Conservative | +6.7 pts | -1.0 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2016 | Gensing | Labour | +8.4 pts | +1.0 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2016 | Gensing | Green | -3.7 pts | +3.5 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2016 | West St Leonards | Liberal Democrats | +6.4 pts | -0.6 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2016 | Tressell | Liberal Democrats | -7.4 pts | -0.6 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2016 | Central St Leonards | Labour | -5.2 pts | +1.0 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2016 | Old Hastings | Conservative | -7.0 pts | -1.0 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2016 | Central St Leonards | Conservative | +4.7 pts | -1.0 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2016 | Hollington | Labour | +6.5 pts | +1.0 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2016 | Ore | Liberal Democrats | -5.6 pts | -0.6 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2016 | Braybrooke | Conservative | -5.9 pts | -1.0 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2016 | Silverhill | Conservative | -5.9 pts | -1.0 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2016 | Hollington | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.7 pts | -3.8 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2016 | Gensing | Conservative | +3.7 pts | -1.0 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2016 | Wishing Tree | Labour | -3.5 pts | +1.0 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2016 | Old Hastings | Labour | -3.2 pts | +1.0 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2016 | Wishing Tree | Liberal Democrats | -4.6 pts | -0.6 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2016 | Conquest | Labour | +4.9 pts | +1.0 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2016 | Old Hastings | Liberal Democrats | -4.0 pts | -0.6 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2016 | Conquest | Liberal Democrats | +2.6 pts | -0.6 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2016 | Gensing | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.9 pts | -3.8 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2016 | Ashdown | Labour | +4.0 pts | +1.0 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2016 | Ashdown | Liberal Democrats | +2.3 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2016 | Maze Hill | Conservative | +1.6 pts | -1.0 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2016 | Central St Leonards | Green | +1.2 pts | +3.5 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2016 | Baird | Liberal Democrats | +1.7 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2016 | Tressell | Conservative | -3.0 pts | -1.0 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2016 | West St Leonards | Labour | -1.0 pts | +1.0 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2016 | Castle | Conservative | -2.6 pts | -1.0 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2016 | Central St Leonards | Liberal Democrats | +1.1 pts | -0.6 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2016 | Ore | Conservative | +0.4 pts | -1.0 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2016 | Tressell | Labour | +2.1 pts | +1.0 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2016 | Gensing | Liberal Democrats | -1.5 pts | -0.6 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2016 | Castle | Liberal Democrats | +0.1 pts | -0.6 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2016 | Hollington | Conservative | -0.4 pts | -1.0 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2016 | Silverhill | Labour | +0.4 pts | +1.0 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2016 | Braybrooke | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2016 | Silverhill | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | -0.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2016 | Hollington | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2016 | Maze Hill | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.0 pts |