Havant: wards that bucked the trend
Havant: in 2022, 18 ward results beat the expected swing and 28 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Bedhampton (+15.7 pts actual vs -11.1 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Bedhampton | Conservative | +15.7 pts | -11.1 pts | +26.8 pts |
| 2022 | St. Faiths | Labour | +22.8 pts | +1.8 pts | +21.0 pts |
| 2022 | Bedhampton | Liberal Democrats | -11.6 pts | +6.5 pts | -18.1 pts |
| 2022 | Battins | Labour | -14.9 pts | +1.8 pts | -16.7 pts |
| 2022 | Purbrook | Liberal Democrats | +19.2 pts | +6.5 pts | +12.6 pts |
| 2022 | Hayling West | Liberal Democrats | +18.0 pts | +6.5 pts | +11.5 pts |
| 2022 | BONDFIELDS | Liberal Democrats | -4.7 pts | +6.5 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2022 | St. Faiths | Liberal Democrats | -4.6 pts | +6.5 pts | -11.1 pts |
| 2022 | Cowplain | Green | -7.5 pts | +3.2 pts | -10.7 pts |
| 2022 | Warren Park | Labour | +10.8 pts | +1.8 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2022 | Hayling West | Green | -5.8 pts | +3.2 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2022 | Purbrook | Conservative | -19.9 pts | -11.1 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2022 | BONDFIELDS | Conservative | -19.5 pts | -11.1 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2022 | Warren Park | Liberal Democrats | -1.8 pts | +6.5 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2022 | Hayling East | Green | -5.0 pts | +3.2 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2022 | Emsworth | Liberal Democrats | +14.7 pts | +6.5 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2022 | Emsworth | Conservative | -3.2 pts | -11.1 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2022 | Warren Park | Conservative | -18.8 pts | -11.1 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2022 | Waterloo | Conservative | -18.8 pts | -11.1 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2022 | Hayling West | Labour | -5.4 pts | +1.8 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2022 | Barncroft | Liberal Democrats | -0.2 pts | +6.5 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2022 | Emsworth | Green | +9.6 pts | +3.2 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2022 | Battins | HAMPS IND | -6.5 pts | -0.5 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2022 | Hayling East | Labour | +7.4 pts | +1.8 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2022 | St. Faiths | Green | -2.2 pts | +3.2 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2022 | Hart Plain | Conservative | -16.4 pts | -11.1 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2022 | Hart Plain | Liberal Democrats | +1.4 pts | +6.5 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2022 | St. Faiths | Conservative | -16.0 pts | -11.1 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2022 | Barncroft | Labour | +6.1 pts | +1.8 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2022 | Hayling West | Conservative | -6.9 pts | -11.1 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2022 | BONDFIELDS | Labour | -2.1 pts | +1.8 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Purbrook | Green | -0.4 pts | +3.2 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2022 | Cowplain | Liberal Democrats | +3.0 pts | +6.5 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2022 | Stakes | Conservative | -14.3 pts | -11.1 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2022 | Battins | Conservative | -14.2 pts | -11.1 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Hart Plain | Labour | +4.7 pts | +1.8 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2022 | Stakes | Liberal Democrats | +3.7 pts | +6.5 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Barncroft | Conservative | -13.1 pts | -11.1 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Waterloo | Liberal Democrats | +8.4 pts | +6.5 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Battins | Liberal Democrats | +8.3 pts | +6.5 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Hayling East | Conservative | -9.5 pts | -11.1 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Cowplain | Conservative | -11.8 pts | -11.1 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Purbrook | Labour | +1.2 pts | +1.8 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Bedhampton | Labour | +2.3 pts | +1.8 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Hayling East | Liberal Democrats | +7.1 pts | +6.5 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Stakes | Labour | +2.0 pts | +1.8 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Waterloo | Liberal Democrats | -12.7 pts | +3.7 pts | -16.4 pts |
| 2019 | Cowplain | Conservative | -33.5 pts | -20.3 pts | -13.2 pts |
| 2019 | Emsworth | Conservative | -31.2 pts | -20.3 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hayling West | Labour | +4.1 pts | -5.2 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Emsworth | Liberal Democrats | +12.9 pts | +3.7 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2019 | Emsworth | Labour | -12.5 pts | -5.2 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2019 | St. Faiths | Conservative | -13.1 pts | -20.3 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Cowplain | Liberal Democrats | +10.2 pts | +3.7 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2019 | Cowplain | Green | +9.5 pts | +3.1 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hayling East | Labour | -11.4 pts | -5.2 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hayling East | Liberal Democrats | +9.7 pts | +3.7 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hayling West | Conservative | -25.8 pts | -20.3 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hayling East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +13.7 pts | +18.7 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2019 | Stakes | Conservative | -15.6 pts | -20.3 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2019 | Stakes | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | +3.7 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hart Plain | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | +3.7 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hayling East | Conservative | -16.3 pts | -20.3 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2019 | St. Faiths | Labour | -1.6 pts | -5.2 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hart Plain | Conservative | -23.4 pts | -20.3 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2019 | St. Faiths | Liberal Democrats | +6.7 pts | +3.7 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hayling West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +16.0 pts | +18.7 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Purbrook | Conservative | -17.7 pts | -20.3 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Bedhampton | Liberal Democrats | +6.2 pts | +3.7 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Bedhampton | Labour | -2.9 pts | -5.2 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Purbrook | Liberal Democrats | +1.6 pts | +3.7 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hayling West | Liberal Democrats | +5.8 pts | +3.7 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Bedhampton | Conservative | -22.1 pts | -20.3 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hart Plain | Green | +1.5 pts | +3.1 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Purbrook | Labour | -6.6 pts | -5.2 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Purbrook | Green | +1.8 pts | +3.1 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hayling East | Green | +4.3 pts | +3.1 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Waterloo | Conservative | -19.3 pts | -20.3 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Stakes | Labour | -5.8 pts | -5.2 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hart Plain | Labour | -5.6 pts | -5.2 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2016 | Emsworth | Conservative | +18.5 pts | -1.7 pts | +20.2 pts |
| 2016 | Bedhampton | Liberal Democrats | +22.3 pts | +5.6 pts | +16.8 pts |
| 2016 | Hart Plain | Conservative | +9.8 pts | -1.7 pts | +11.5 pts |
| 2016 | St. Faiths | Labour | +15.3 pts | +6.7 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2016 | Waterloo | Conservative | +5.8 pts | -1.7 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2016 | Emsworth | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | +5.6 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2016 | Cowplain | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +4.7 pts | -2.4 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2016 | Hayling West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +4.6 pts | -2.4 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2016 | Stakes | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +4.5 pts | -2.4 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2016 | Hayling East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +4.4 pts | -2.4 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2016 | Purbrook | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +4.0 pts | -2.4 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2016 | Hayling East | Conservative | -7.8 pts | -1.7 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2016 | Hayling West | Conservative | -7.6 pts | -1.7 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2016 | Emsworth | Labour | +0.8 pts | +6.7 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2016 | Hayling East | Liberal Democrats | +0.7 pts | +5.6 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2016 | Cowplain | Conservative | +3.1 pts | -1.7 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2016 | Hart Plain | Liberal Democrats | +10.3 pts | +5.6 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2016 | Stakes | Liberal Democrats | +1.2 pts | +5.6 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2016 | Cowplain | Labour | +2.6 pts | +6.7 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2016 | St. Faiths | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +1.7 pts | -2.4 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2016 | Stakes | Labour | +2.8 pts | +6.7 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2016 | Emsworth | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.1 pts | -2.4 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2016 | Waterloo | Liberal Democrats | +9.1 pts | +5.6 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2016 | Purbrook | Liberal Democrats | +2.4 pts | +5.6 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2016 | Purbrook | Conservative | -4.6 pts | -1.7 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2016 | Hayling West | Liberal Democrats | +2.7 pts | +5.6 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2016 | Stakes | Conservative | -4.1 pts | -1.7 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2016 | Purbrook | Labour | +4.6 pts | +6.7 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2016 | Bedhampton | Labour | +4.9 pts | +6.7 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2016 | Cowplain | Liberal Democrats | +3.9 pts | +5.6 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2016 | Bedhampton | Conservative | -0.4 pts | -1.7 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2016 | Hayling West | Labour | +5.5 pts | +6.7 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2016 | St. Faiths | Liberal Democrats | +6.8 pts | +5.6 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2016 | Hayling East | Labour | +7.9 pts | +6.7 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2016 | Waterloo | Labour | +6.2 pts | +6.7 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2016 | Hart Plain | Labour | +7.2 pts | +6.7 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2016 | St. Faiths | Conservative | -2.0 pts | -1.7 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2015 | Cowplain | Conservative | -14.5 pts | +5.2 pts | -19.7 pts |
| 2015 | Stakes | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -13.1 pts | +4.8 pts | -17.9 pts |
| 2015 | Hayling East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.8 pts | +4.8 pts | -17.6 pts |
| 2015 | Purbrook | Conservative | -9.5 pts | +5.2 pts | -14.7 pts |
| 2015 | Waterloo | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.8 pts | +4.8 pts | -14.6 pts |
| 2015 | Hayling West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.2 pts | +4.8 pts | -14.0 pts |
| 2015 | Hart Plain | Labour | -17.6 pts | -5.5 pts | -12.1 pts |
| 2015 | Emsworth | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.1 pts | +4.8 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2015 | St. Faiths | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.3 pts | +4.8 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2015 | Bedhampton | Green | -11.6 pts | -1.8 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2015 | Waterloo | Labour | +3.8 pts | -5.5 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2015 | Cowplain | Green | -11.0 pts | -1.8 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2015 | Hart Plain | Conservative | -2.6 pts | +5.2 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2015 | Purbrook | Labour | -13.2 pts | -5.5 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2015 | Waterloo | Conservative | +12.9 pts | +5.2 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2015 | Hayling East | Conservative | +12.6 pts | +5.2 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2015 | Emsworth | Labour | +1.0 pts | -5.5 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2015 | Emsworth | Liberal Democrats | +2.3 pts | -3.7 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2015 | Hayling West | Labour | +0.5 pts | -5.5 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2015 | Stakes | Liberal Democrats | +2.1 pts | -3.7 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2015 | Hayling East | Labour | +0.3 pts | -5.5 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2015 | Hayling East | Liberal Democrats | +1.6 pts | -3.7 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2015 | Hayling West | Conservative | +10.1 pts | +5.2 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2015 | Hayling West | Liberal Democrats | +1.2 pts | -3.7 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2015 | St. Faiths | Liberal Democrats | +0.8 pts | -3.7 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2015 | Stakes | Labour | -1.2 pts | -5.5 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2015 | Waterloo | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | -3.7 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2015 | St. Faiths | Labour | -2.0 pts | -5.5 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2015 | Hart Plain | Liberal Democrats | -7.1 pts | -3.7 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2015 | Bedhampton | Conservative | +1.8 pts | +5.2 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2015 | Bedhampton | Liberal Democrats | -6.7 pts | -3.7 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2015 | Stakes | Conservative | +7.8 pts | +5.2 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2015 | Cowplain | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -3.7 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2015 | Bedhampton | Labour | -3.2 pts | -5.5 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2015 | Emsworth | Conservative | +3.0 pts | +5.2 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2015 | Cowplain | Labour | -3.4 pts | -5.5 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2015 | Emsworth | Green | -0.2 pts | -1.8 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2015 | St. Faiths | Green | -0.2 pts | -1.8 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2015 | St. Faiths | Conservative | +6.7 pts | +5.2 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2015 | Purbrook | Liberal Democrats | -4.8 pts | -3.7 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2015 | Hayling West | Green | -2.6 pts | -1.8 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2015 | Hayling East | Green | -1.7 pts | -1.8 pts | +0.1 pts |