Herefordshire: wards that bucked the trend
Herefordshire: in 2019, 56 ward results beat the expected swing and 36 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Ross North (+52.8 pts actual vs +2.6 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Ross North | Liberal Democrats | +52.8 pts | +2.6 pts | +50.3 pts |
| 2019 | Golden Valley South | Independent | +56.5 pts | +10.5 pts | +46.0 pts |
| 2019 | Golden Valley South | Conservative | -52.2 pts | -7.4 pts | -44.9 pts |
| 2019 | Kings Acre | Independent | +54.0 pts | +10.5 pts | +43.5 pts |
| 2019 | Bishops Frome & Cradley | Conservative | -47.2 pts | -7.4 pts | -39.8 pts |
| 2019 | Newton Farm | Independent | -28.3 pts | +10.5 pts | -38.8 pts |
| 2019 | Bishops Frome & Cradley | Green | +47.2 pts | +8.6 pts | +38.6 pts |
| 2019 | Saxon Gate | Independent | +46.7 pts | +10.5 pts | +36.2 pts |
| 2019 | Leominster South | Green | +42.0 pts | +8.6 pts | +33.4 pts |
| 2019 | Aylestone Hill | Independent | +43.8 pts | +10.5 pts | +33.3 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Independent | +42.9 pts | +10.5 pts | +32.4 pts |
| 2019 | Golden Valley North | Independent | +41.0 pts | +10.5 pts | +30.5 pts |
| 2019 | Queenswood | Independent | +39.4 pts | +10.5 pts | +28.9 pts |
| 2019 | Tupsley | Conservative | +20.7 pts | -7.4 pts | +28.1 pts |
| 2019 | Ross East | Liberal Democrats | +29.5 pts | +2.6 pts | +26.9 pts |
| 2019 | Bircher | Independent | +33.4 pts | +10.5 pts | +22.9 pts |
| 2019 | Red Hill | Liberal Democrats | +25.3 pts | +2.6 pts | +22.7 pts |
| 2019 | Bromyard Bringsty | Conservative | +15.1 pts | -7.4 pts | +22.5 pts |
| 2019 | Credenhill | Independent | +32.7 pts | +10.5 pts | +22.2 pts |
| 2019 | Mortimer | Conservative | +12.7 pts | -7.4 pts | +20.0 pts |
| 2019 | Holmer | Independent | +29.4 pts | +10.5 pts | +18.9 pts |
| 2019 | Wormside | Conservative | +10.9 pts | -7.4 pts | +18.3 pts |
| 2019 | Stoney Street | Independent | +28.0 pts | +10.5 pts | +17.5 pts |
| 2019 | Leominster East | Green | +25.6 pts | +8.6 pts | +16.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hinton & Hunderton | Liberal Democrats | +19.3 pts | +2.6 pts | +16.8 pts |
| 2019 | Weobley | Independent | -5.8 pts | +10.5 pts | -16.3 pts |
| 2019 | Ledbury West | Conservative | -23.4 pts | -7.4 pts | -16.0 pts |
| 2019 | Hinton & Hunderton | Independent | -5.5 pts | +10.5 pts | -16.0 pts |
| 2019 | Backbury | Independent | +26.3 pts | +10.5 pts | +15.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hagley | Conservative | +8.3 pts | -7.4 pts | +15.7 pts |
| 2019 | Bircher | Conservative | -22.6 pts | -7.4 pts | -15.2 pts |
| 2019 | Arrow | Conservative | +7.5 pts | -7.4 pts | +14.9 pts |
| 2019 | Ledbury South | Liberal Democrats | +17.5 pts | +2.6 pts | +14.9 pts |
| 2019 | Leominster West | Conservative | -21.5 pts | -7.4 pts | -14.2 pts |
| 2019 | Sutton Walls | Conservative | +6.6 pts | -7.4 pts | +13.9 pts |
| 2019 | Leominster West | Green | +21.8 pts | +8.6 pts | +13.2 pts |
| 2019 | Ledbury North | Conservative | +5.6 pts | -7.4 pts | +13.0 pts |
| 2019 | Penyard | Conservative | -20.3 pts | -7.4 pts | -12.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hagley | Independent | +22.8 pts | +10.5 pts | +12.3 pts |
| 2019 | Newton Farm | Liberal Democrats | +14.7 pts | +2.6 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2019 | Old Gore | Conservative | +4.1 pts | -7.4 pts | +11.5 pts |
| 2019 | Ross West | Conservative | -18.5 pts | -7.4 pts | -11.1 pts |
| 2019 | Holmer | Conservative | +3.5 pts | -7.4 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2019 | Weobley | Conservative | -17.7 pts | -7.4 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2019 | Saxon Gate | Conservative | -17.2 pts | -7.4 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2019 | Sutton Walls | Independent | +19.7 pts | +10.5 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2019 | College | Conservative | +1.6 pts | -7.4 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2019 | Leominster South | Conservative | +0.8 pts | -7.4 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2019 | Kerne Bridge | Independent | +18.6 pts | +10.5 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2019 | Ross West | Liberal Democrats | +10.7 pts | +2.6 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2019 | Birch | Conservative | -15.1 pts | -7.4 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2019 | Greyfriars | Liberal Democrats | -5.0 pts | +2.6 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2019 | Greyfriars | Conservative | -14.7 pts | -7.4 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2019 | Eign Hill | Conservative | -14.5 pts | -7.4 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Queenswood | Conservative | -14.2 pts | -7.4 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2019 | Ross East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.9 pts | -0.0 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2019 | Dinedor Hill | Conservative | -0.6 pts | -7.4 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2019 | Three Crosses | Conservative | -1.0 pts | -7.4 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hope End | Conservative | -1.0 pts | -7.4 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2019 | Widemarsh | Conservative | -13.7 pts | -7.4 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2019 | Aylestone Hill | Conservative | -1.1 pts | -7.4 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2019 | Central | Conservative | -13.3 pts | -7.4 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2019 | Hampton | Conservative | -13.2 pts | -7.4 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Greyfriars | Independent | +4.7 pts | +10.5 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Eign Hill | Liberal Democrats | -2.9 pts | +2.6 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2019 | Llangarron | Conservative | -2.1 pts | -7.4 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Belmont Rural | Conservative | -12.6 pts | -7.4 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Leominster North & Rural | Green | +3.6 pts | +8.6 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Kerne Bridge | Conservative | -3.3 pts | -7.4 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Whitecross | Liberal Democrats | -1.4 pts | +2.6 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Leominster North & Rural | Conservative | -3.6 pts | -7.4 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Leominster West | Liberal Democrats | -0.3 pts | +2.6 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Red Hill | Conservative | -4.6 pts | -7.4 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Saxon Gate | Liberal Democrats | +5.2 pts | +2.6 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Ledbury South | Conservative | -10.0 pts | -7.4 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Central | Liberal Democrats | +0.1 pts | +2.6 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Bobblestock | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +2.3 pts | -0.0 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Backbury | Conservative | -5.3 pts | -7.4 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Stoney Street | Conservative | -5.4 pts | -7.4 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Bromyard West | Conservative | -5.5 pts | -7.4 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Widemarsh | Liberal Democrats | +0.7 pts | +2.6 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Ross East | Conservative | -9.2 pts | -7.4 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Bobblestock | Conservative | -5.6 pts | -7.4 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Leominster East | Conservative | -9.1 pts | -7.4 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Whitecross | Conservative | -8.9 pts | -7.4 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Newton Farm | Conservative | -8.7 pts | -7.4 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Penyard | Independent | +11.7 pts | +10.5 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Golden Valley North | Conservative | -8.5 pts | -7.4 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Bromyard Bringsty | Independent | +11.5 pts | +10.5 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Conservative | -6.7 pts | -7.4 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Whitecross | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.6 pts | -0.0 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Credenhill | Conservative | -7.4 pts | -7.4 pts | +0.0 pts |