Hertfordshire: wards that bucked the trend
Hertfordshire: in 2025, 136 ward results beat the expected swing and 152 trailed it. The biggest gap was Green in St Albans Central (+28.2 pts actual vs +1.7 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | St Albans Central | Green | +28.2 pts | +1.7 pts | +26.5 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans Central | Liberal Democrats | -22.2 pts | -0.6 pts | -21.6 pts |
| 2025 | Letchworth North | Labour | -16.0 pts | +4.0 pts | -20.0 pts |
| 2025 | Letchworth South | Liberal Democrats | +17.6 pts | -0.6 pts | +18.2 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead St Paul's | Liberal Democrats | -17.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -17.3 pts |
| 2025 | West Watford | Liberal Democrats | +16.5 pts | -0.6 pts | +17.1 pts |
| 2025 | Buntingford | Conservative | -33.4 pts | -17.3 pts | -16.1 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead East | Liberal Democrats | +14.9 pts | -0.6 pts | +15.5 pts |
| 2025 | Hitchin Rural | Labour | +3.5 pts | -11.6 pts | +15.1 pts |
| 2025 | Hitchin Rural | Green | -13.2 pts | +1.7 pts | -14.9 pts |
| 2025 | Abbots Langley | Conservative | -2.7 pts | -17.3 pts | +14.6 pts |
| 2025 | Harpenden Rural | Liberal Democrats | +13.7 pts | -0.6 pts | +14.3 pts |
| 2025 | Hertford St Andrews | Labour | -25.6 pts | -11.6 pts | -14.0 pts |
| 2025 | Abbots Langley | Liberal Democrats | -14.5 pts | -0.6 pts | -14.0 pts |
| 2025 | Ware South | Green | +15.6 pts | +1.7 pts | +13.9 pts |
| 2025 | Hitchin South | Labour | +2.2 pts | -11.6 pts | +13.8 pts |
| 2025 | Flamstead End and Turnford | Conservative | -30.7 pts | -17.3 pts | -13.4 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans North | Reform UK | +11.0 pts | +23.8 pts | -12.9 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans South | Reform UK | +11.1 pts | +23.8 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2025 | North Watford | Liberal Democrats | +12.1 pts | -0.6 pts | +12.7 pts |
| 2025 | Harpenden Rural | Conservative | -29.6 pts | -17.3 pts | -12.3 pts |
| 2025 | Royston East and Ermine | Liberal Democrats | +11.5 pts | -0.6 pts | +12.1 pts |
| 2025 | Harpenden North East | Conservative | -5.5 pts | -17.3 pts | +11.8 pts |
| 2025 | Hatfield Rural | Conservative | -29.0 pts | -17.3 pts | -11.6 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead East | Conservative | -28.9 pts | -17.3 pts | -11.6 pts |
| 2025 | Three Rivers Rural | Conservative | -5.8 pts | -17.3 pts | +11.6 pts |
| 2025 | Buntingford | Reform UK | +35.0 pts | +23.8 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2025 | Sawbridgeworth | Liberal Democrats | -11.5 pts | -0.6 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2025 | Royston East and Ermine | Conservative | -28.2 pts | -17.3 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2025 | Croxley | Green | +12.4 pts | +1.7 pts | +10.7 pts |
| 2025 | Hoddesdon North | Conservative | -27.8 pts | -17.3 pts | -10.5 pts |
| 2025 | Three Rivers Rural | Labour | -1.3 pts | -11.6 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2025 | Three Rivers Rural | Liberal Democrats | -10.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead North West | Labour | -1.5 pts | -11.6 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2025 | Harpenden South West | Conservative | -7.4 pts | -17.3 pts | +9.9 pts |
| 2025 | Hatfield East | Liberal Democrats | -10.5 pts | -0.6 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2025 | Ware South | Conservative | -27.0 pts | -17.3 pts | -9.7 pts |
| 2025 | Watling | Conservative | -7.9 pts | -17.3 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2025 | Harpenden South West | Labour | -2.1 pts | -11.6 pts | +9.4 pts |
| 2025 | Shephall | Conservative | -26.7 pts | -17.3 pts | -9.4 pts |
| 2025 | Welwyn Garden City South | Conservative | -26.7 pts | -17.3 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2025 | Bishops Stortford West | Liberal Democrats | +8.7 pts | -0.6 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2025 | Central Watford and Oxhey | Reform UK | +14.6 pts | +23.8 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead St Paul's | Labour | -2.4 pts | -11.6 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2025 | Bridgewater | Labour | -2.6 pts | -11.6 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2025 | St Stephen's | Labour | -2.6 pts | -11.6 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2025 | Tring | Conservative | -8.4 pts | -17.3 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2025 | Bushey South | Liberal Democrats | +8.3 pts | -0.6 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2025 | Ware North | Conservative | -26.2 pts | -17.3 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans South | Conservative | -8.5 pts | -17.3 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2025 | Goffs Oak and Bury Green | Conservative | -25.9 pts | -17.3 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead North East | Labour | -3.1 pts | -11.6 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2025 | Welwyn | Labour | -3.3 pts | -11.6 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2025 | Hatfield Rural | Labour | -3.3 pts | -11.6 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2025 | Harpenden South West | Green | -6.5 pts | +1.7 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2025 | Waltham Cross | Labour | -19.8 pts | -11.6 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2025 | Croxley | Labour | -3.4 pts | -11.6 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2025 | Goffs Oak and Bury Green | Green | -6.4 pts | +1.7 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2025 | Harpenden North East | Labour | -3.8 pts | -11.6 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2025 | Borehamwood South | Green | -6.0 pts | +1.7 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans Central | Conservative | -9.7 pts | -17.3 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2025 | Colney Heath and Marshalswick | Labour | -3.9 pts | -11.6 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2025 | Berkhamsted | Labour | -4.1 pts | -11.6 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2025 | Rickmansworth East and Oxhey Park | Liberal Democrats | +6.8 pts | -0.6 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2025 | Hertford All Saints | Green | +9.0 pts | +1.7 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2025 | Potters Bar West and Shenley | Conservative | -10.0 pts | -17.3 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead St Paul's | Conservative | -10.0 pts | -17.3 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2025 | Letchworth South | Reform UK | +16.6 pts | +23.8 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2025 | London Colney | Liberal Democrats | +6.7 pts | -0.6 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2025 | Kings Langley | Conservative | -24.5 pts | -17.3 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2025 | Central Watford and Oxhey | Liberal Democrats | +6.5 pts | -0.6 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2025 | Hatfield East | Labour | -4.6 pts | -11.6 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2025 | Bishops Stortford East | Labour | -4.6 pts | -11.6 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans East | Conservative | -10.4 pts | -17.3 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2025 | Rickmansworth West | Labour | -4.7 pts | -11.6 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2025 | Hatfield North | Labour | -4.7 pts | -11.6 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead North West | Conservative | -24.2 pts | -17.3 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans East | Labour | -4.8 pts | -11.6 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans Central | Labour | -4.8 pts | -11.6 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2025 | Tring | Labour | -4.9 pts | -11.6 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2025 | Baldock and Letchworth East | Green | -4.9 pts | +1.7 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead Town | Conservative | -10.8 pts | -17.3 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2025 | Potters Bar West and Shenley | Liberal Democrats | +5.9 pts | -0.6 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2025 | Kings Langley | Labour | -5.1 pts | -11.6 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans South | Labour | -5.1 pts | -11.6 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2025 | Goffs Oak and Bury Green | Labour | -5.2 pts | -11.6 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans North | Labour | -5.2 pts | -11.6 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2025 | St Stephen's | Conservative | -23.7 pts | -17.3 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2025 | Central Watford and Oxhey | Conservative | -11.0 pts | -17.3 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2025 | Hitchin South | Liberal Democrats | +5.8 pts | -0.6 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead Town | Labour | -5.3 pts | -11.6 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2025 | West Watford | Labour | -17.9 pts | -11.6 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2025 | London Colney | Labour | -5.3 pts | -11.6 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2025 | Berkhamsted | Conservative | -11.2 pts | -17.3 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2025 | Hitchin North | Green | +7.7 pts | +1.7 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2025 | Knebworth and Codicote | Liberal Democrats | +5.4 pts | -0.6 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2025 | Old Stevenage | Conservative | -23.3 pts | -17.3 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2025 | Hertford St Andrews | Liberal Democrats | -6.5 pts | -0.6 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2025 | Borehamwood South | Conservative | -11.4 pts | -17.3 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2025 | Hoddesdon South | Conservative | -23.2 pts | -17.3 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2025 | Knebworth and Codicote | Labour | -5.7 pts | -11.6 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2025 | Bishops Stortford Rural | Conservative | -23.1 pts | -17.3 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2025 | Woodside Stanborough | Liberal Democrats | -6.3 pts | -0.6 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2025 | Bishops Stortford West | Green | -4.1 pts | +1.7 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2025 | Hertford Rural | Conservative | -23.0 pts | -17.3 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2025 | Harpenden South West | Liberal Democrats | +5.0 pts | -0.6 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2025 | Cheshunt Central | Conservative | -22.9 pts | -17.3 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2025 | Knebworth and Codicote | Green | -3.8 pts | +1.7 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2025 | Sawbridgeworth | Labour | -6.1 pts | -11.6 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2025 | Handside and Peartree | Conservative | -22.8 pts | -17.3 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2025 | Croxley | Liberal Democrats | -6.1 pts | -0.6 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2025 | Harpenden Rural | Labour | -6.1 pts | -11.6 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead North West | Green | -3.7 pts | +1.7 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead East | Green | -3.7 pts | +1.7 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2025 | Nascot Park | Labour | -6.3 pts | -11.6 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans North | Conservative | -12.0 pts | -17.3 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2025 | Watling | Green | -3.5 pts | +1.7 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2025 | Rickmansworth East and Oxhey Park | Green | -3.5 pts | +1.7 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2025 | Goffs Oak and Bury Green | Liberal Democrats | -5.7 pts | -0.6 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2025 | Letchworth North | Conservative | -22.4 pts | -17.3 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2025 | Hatfield South | Labour | -6.5 pts | -11.6 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2025 | Hitchin North | Conservative | -12.3 pts | -17.3 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2025 | Hoddesdon North | Liberal Democrats | -5.5 pts | -0.6 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2025 | Tring | Liberal Democrats | -5.5 pts | -0.6 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead North East | Green | -3.2 pts | +1.7 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2025 | St Nicholas | Reform UK | +28.7 pts | +23.8 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2025 | Letchworth South | Conservative | -22.2 pts | -17.3 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2025 | Old Stevenage | Liberal Democrats | +4.3 pts | -0.6 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2025 | Haldens | Conservative | -22.1 pts | -17.3 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2025 | Hertford Rural | Green | -3.1 pts | +1.7 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2025 | London Colney | Green | -2.9 pts | +1.7 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2025 | Buntingford | Green | +6.1 pts | +1.7 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2025 | Hatfield North | Liberal Democrats | -5.0 pts | -0.6 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2025 | Baldock and Letchworth East | Liberal Democrats | -5.0 pts | -0.6 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2025 | Hertford All Saints | Labour | -7.3 pts | -11.6 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2025 | Woodside Stanborough | Conservative | -21.6 pts | -17.3 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead St Paul's | Green | -2.5 pts | +1.7 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2025 | Cheshunt Central | Liberal Democrats | -4.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead Town | Green | -2.5 pts | +1.7 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2025 | Broadwater | Conservative | -21.5 pts | -17.3 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2025 | Flamstead End and Turnford | Green | -2.4 pts | +1.7 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2025 | Welwyn | Green | -2.4 pts | +1.7 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2025 | Letchworth South | Green | -2.3 pts | +1.7 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2025 | Buntingford | Labour | -7.6 pts | -11.6 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2025 | Hitchin South | Green | -2.2 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2025 | Bushey South | Green | -2.2 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2025 | Hatfield Rural | Liberal Democrats | -4.4 pts | -0.6 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2025 | Hitchin Rural | Liberal Democrats | +3.3 pts | -0.6 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2025 | Ware North | Labour | -7.8 pts | -11.6 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2025 | Rickmansworth West | Conservative | -13.6 pts | -17.3 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2025 | Kings Langley | Green | -2.1 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2025 | North Watford | Conservative | -13.6 pts | -17.3 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2025 | Borehamwood South | Labour | -15.2 pts | -11.6 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead North East | Liberal Democrats | -4.2 pts | -0.6 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2025 | Bishops Stortford East | Green | -1.9 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2025 | Three Rivers Rural | Green | -1.8 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2025 | Flamstead End and Turnford | Labour | -8.1 pts | -11.6 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2025 | Hertford Rural | Liberal Democrats | +2.8 pts | -0.6 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2025 | Abbots Langley | Green | -1.7 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2025 | Bishops Stortford Rural | Green | -1.7 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2025 | Ware North | Green | -1.7 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead South East | Conservative | -14.0 pts | -17.3 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2025 | Waltham Cross | Conservative | -14.1 pts | -17.3 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans North | Green | +4.9 pts | +1.7 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2025 | Bedwell | Conservative | -20.6 pts | -17.3 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2025 | Woodside Stanborough | Labour | -8.4 pts | -11.6 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2025 | Royston West and Rural | Conservative | -20.5 pts | -17.3 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2025 | Bridgewater | Reform UK | +20.6 pts | +23.8 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2025 | London Colney | Conservative | -20.5 pts | -17.3 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead Town | Liberal Democrats | -3.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2025 | Bishops Stortford Rural | Liberal Democrats | +2.6 pts | -0.6 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2025 | Welwyn | Conservative | -14.2 pts | -17.3 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2025 | Hatfield North | Conservative | -20.4 pts | -17.3 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2025 | Rickmansworth West | Green | -1.4 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2025 | Colney Heath and Marshalswick | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | -0.6 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2025 | Handside and Peartree | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | -0.6 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2025 | Bushey North | Conservative | -14.3 pts | -17.3 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2025 | Chells | Green | -1.4 pts | +1.7 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2025 | Letchworth North | Liberal Democrats | +2.4 pts | -0.6 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2025 | St Stephen's | Green | -1.3 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2025 | Kings Langley | Liberal Democrats | +2.3 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2025 | Handside and Peartree | Labour | -8.7 pts | -11.6 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2025 | Waltham Cross | Liberal Democrats | +2.3 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2025 | Harpenden North East | Green | -1.2 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2025 | Nascot Park | Conservative | -20.2 pts | -17.3 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2025 | Old Stevenage | Green | -1.2 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2025 | Haldens | Liberal Democrats | +2.2 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2025 | Rickmansworth West | Liberal Democrats | -3.3 pts | -0.6 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2025 | Bishops Stortford West | Conservative | -20.1 pts | -17.3 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2025 | Borehamwood North | Conservative | -20.0 pts | -17.3 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2025 | Broadwater | Green | -1.0 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2025 | Bishops Stortford Rural | Labour | -8.9 pts | -11.6 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2025 | Nascot Park | Liberal Democrats | +2.1 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2025 | Hitchin Rural | Conservative | -14.7 pts | -17.3 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2025 | Bishops Stortford West | Labour | -8.9 pts | -11.6 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2025 | Tring | Green | -1.0 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2025 | Sawbridgeworth | Conservative | -19.9 pts | -17.3 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2025 | Meriden Tudor | Labour | -14.1 pts | -11.6 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2025 | St Stephen's | Liberal Democrats | +1.9 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2025 | Hatfield East | Conservative | -19.8 pts | -17.3 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2025 | Royston West and Rural | Liberal Democrats | -3.0 pts | -0.6 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2025 | Colney Heath and Marshalswick | Conservative | -14.9 pts | -17.3 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2025 | Rickmansworth East and Oxhey Park | Labour | -9.2 pts | -11.6 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2025 | Royston East and Ermine | Green | -0.7 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2025 | Hoddesdon South | Green | -0.7 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2025 | Baldock and Letchworth East | Conservative | -15.0 pts | -17.3 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2025 | Bridgewater | Liberal Democrats | -2.9 pts | -0.6 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2025 | Central Watford and Oxhey | Green | -0.6 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2025 | Hoddesdon South | Liberal Democrats | -2.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2025 | Borehamwood South | Liberal Democrats | +1.6 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead North West | Liberal Democrats | -2.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans South | Green | +3.8 pts | +1.7 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead South East | Liberal Democrats | +1.5 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2025 | Meriden Tudor | Conservative | -19.4 pts | -17.3 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2025 | Welwyn | Liberal Democrats | -2.6 pts | -0.6 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2025 | Colney Heath and Marshalswick | Green | -0.4 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2025 | Potters Bar East | Green | -0.4 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans North | Liberal Democrats | +1.4 pts | -0.6 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2025 | South Oxhey and Eastbury | Liberal Democrats | -2.5 pts | -0.6 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2025 | Bushey North | Green | -0.2 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2025 | Bishops Stortford East | Conservative | -15.4 pts | -17.3 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2025 | Haldens | Labour | -9.7 pts | -11.6 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2025 | Bushey North | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | -0.6 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2025 | Bridgewater | Conservative | -15.5 pts | -17.3 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2025 | South Oxhey and Eastbury | Conservative | -15.6 pts | -17.3 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2025 | Harpenden Rural | Green | -0.1 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2025 | South Oxhey and Eastbury | Green | -0.1 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead South East | Green | -0.0 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2025 | Hertford All Saints | Conservative | -15.6 pts | -17.3 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2025 | Croxley | Conservative | -19.0 pts | -17.3 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2025 | North Watford | Green | +0.1 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2025 | Ware South | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | -0.6 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2025 | Borehamwood North | Green | +0.2 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2025 | Berkhamsted | Green | +0.2 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2025 | West Watford | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | -1.3 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead South East | Independent | -1.3 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2025 | North Watford | Labour | -13.0 pts | -11.6 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2025 | Chells | Liberal Democrats | -1.9 pts | -0.6 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2025 | Hitchin North | Liberal Democrats | +0.7 pts | -0.6 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2025 | Bridgewater | Green | +0.4 pts | +1.7 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2025 | Potters Bar East | Liberal Democrats | +0.6 pts | -0.6 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2025 | Welwyn Garden City South | Liberal Democrats | -1.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2025 | Chells | Conservative | -18.5 pts | -17.3 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2025 | Potters Bar West and Shenley | Labour | -10.4 pts | -11.6 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2025 | West Watford | Conservative | -16.2 pts | -17.3 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2025 | Watling | Liberal Democrats | +0.5 pts | -0.6 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2025 | Hoddesdon North | Labour | -10.5 pts | -11.6 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2025 | St Nicholas | Liberal Democrats | -1.7 pts | -0.6 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2025 | Central Watford and Oxhey | Labour | -10.5 pts | -11.6 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2025 | Cheshunt Central | Labour | -10.5 pts | -11.6 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2025 | Welwyn Garden City South | Labour | -12.6 pts | -11.6 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2025 | Hertford St Andrews | Conservative | -18.3 pts | -17.3 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2025 | St Nicholas | Conservative | -18.3 pts | -17.3 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans East | Green | +2.6 pts | +1.7 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2025 | Abbots Langley | Labour | -12.5 pts | -11.6 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2025 | Broadwater | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | -0.8 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2025 | St Nicholas | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | -0.8 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2025 | Ware North | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | -0.8 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans South | Liberal Democrats | -1.3 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2025 | Shephall | Liberal Democrats | -1.3 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead East | Labour | -11.0 pts | -11.6 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2025 | Harpenden North East | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2025 | Borehamwood North | Liberal Democrats | +0.0 pts | -0.6 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2025 | Broadwater | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2025 | Rickmansworth East and Oxhey Park | Conservative | -16.8 pts | -17.3 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2025 | North Watford | Heritage Party | -0.6 pts | +0.0 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2025 | Potters Bar West and Shenley | Green | +1.1 pts | +1.7 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2025 | South Oxhey and Eastbury | Labour | -11.0 pts | -11.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2025 | Buntingford | Liberal Democrats | -0.0 pts | -0.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2025 | Meriden Tudor | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2025 | Hertford All Saints | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | -0.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2025 | Hitchin South | Conservative | -17.8 pts | -17.3 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2025 | Bushey South | Conservative | -17.8 pts | -17.3 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2025 | Potters Bar East | Conservative | -17.7 pts | -17.3 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2025 | Berkhamsted | Liberal Democrats | -0.2 pts | -0.6 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2025 | Flamstead End and Turnford | Liberal Democrats | -0.2 pts | -0.6 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2025 | Bedwell | Liberal Democrats | -1.0 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2025 | Bishops Stortford East | Liberal Democrats | -0.9 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2025 | Knebworth and Codicote | Conservative | -17.1 pts | -17.3 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2025 | North Watford | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | -0.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead North East | Conservative | -17.5 pts | -17.3 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2025 | St Nicholas | Green | +1.8 pts | +1.7 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2025 | Ware South | Labour | -11.4 pts | -11.6 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2025 | Hatfield South | Conservative | -17.5 pts | -17.3 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2025 | Bedwell | Green | +1.5 pts | +1.7 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2025 | Hatfield South | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | -0.6 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2025 | Hemel Hempstead South East | Labour | -11.6 pts | -11.6 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2025 | St Albans East | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.0 pts |