Hillingdon: wards that bucked the trend
Hillingdon: in 2018, 39 ward results beat the expected swing and 32 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Charville (-34.0 pts actual vs +2.1 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Charville | Labour | -34.0 pts | +2.1 pts | -36.2 pts |
| 2018 | Harefield | Green | +14.2 pts | +1.2 pts | +13.0 pts |
| 2018 | Northwood Hills | Conservative | +20.6 pts | +8.8 pts | +11.8 pts |
| 2018 | West Ruislip | Conservative | -2.7 pts | +8.8 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2018 | Yeading | Conservative | -1.5 pts | +8.8 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2018 | Pinkwell | Labour | +10.9 pts | +2.1 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2018 | West Ruislip | Labour | +10.6 pts | +2.1 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2018 | Pinkwell | Conservative | +0.9 pts | +8.8 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2018 | West Drayton | Labour | +9.9 pts | +2.1 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2018 | Hillingdon East | Labour | +9.8 pts | +2.1 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2018 | Harefield | Independent | -7.7 pts | -0.9 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2018 | Harefield | Conservative | +15.4 pts | +8.8 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2018 | Yeading | Labour | +8.2 pts | +2.1 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2018 | Barnhill | Conservative | +2.8 pts | +8.8 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2018 | South Ruislip | Conservative | +14.7 pts | +8.8 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2018 | Heathrow Villages | Labour | +8.0 pts | +2.1 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2018 | Northwood | Conservative | +2.9 pts | +8.8 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2018 | Yiewsley | Conservative | +13.7 pts | +8.8 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2018 | Hillingdon East | Conservative | +13.3 pts | +8.8 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2018 | Northwood Hills | Labour | +6.6 pts | +2.1 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2018 | Brunel | Conservative | +13.2 pts | +8.8 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2018 | West Ruislip | Liberal Democrats | +1.9 pts | -2.5 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Ickenham | Green | +5.3 pts | +1.2 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2018 | Ickenham | Labour | -1.7 pts | +2.1 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2018 | Botwell | Labour | -1.5 pts | +2.1 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2018 | South Ruislip | Labour | +5.5 pts | +2.1 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2018 | Charville | Conservative | +5.4 pts | +8.8 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2018 | Northwood Hills | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | -2.5 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2018 | Ickenham | Conservative | +5.6 pts | +8.8 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2018 | Eastcote and East Ruislip | Labour | -0.9 pts | +2.1 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2018 | Barnhill | Labour | +5.1 pts | +2.1 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2018 | West Ruislip | Green | -1.7 pts | +1.2 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Northwood Hills | Independent | -3.7 pts | -0.9 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Townfield | Labour | -0.6 pts | +2.1 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2018 | Botwell | Conservative | +11.2 pts | +8.8 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2018 | Botwell | Green | -1.1 pts | +1.2 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Eastcote and East Ruislip | Green | +3.5 pts | +1.2 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Yiewsley | Green | +3.4 pts | +1.2 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Uxbridge South | Labour | +4.3 pts | +2.1 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Uxbridge North | Green | +3.3 pts | +1.2 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Harefield | Labour | +4.2 pts | +2.1 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Townfield | Conservative | +10.8 pts | +8.8 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Charville | Green | -0.8 pts | +1.2 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Townfield | Green | -0.6 pts | +1.2 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Barnhill | Green | -0.6 pts | +1.2 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Brunel | Green | -0.5 pts | +1.2 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Yiewsley | Labour | +3.8 pts | +2.1 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Cavendish | Labour | +3.7 pts | +2.1 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Manor | Liberal Democrats | -4.0 pts | -2.5 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Cavendish | Green | +2.7 pts | +1.2 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Uxbridge South | Conservative | +10.1 pts | +8.8 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Heathrow Villages | Green | -0.1 pts | +1.2 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Heathrow Villages | Conservative | +10.1 pts | +8.8 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Manor | Labour | +3.4 pts | +2.1 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2018 | South Ruislip | Liberal Democrats | -3.7 pts | -2.5 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Eastcote and East Ruislip | Conservative | +7.5 pts | +8.8 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Northwood | Green | +2.3 pts | +1.2 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2018 | Uxbridge South | Green | +2.2 pts | +1.2 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Northwood | Liberal Democrats | -1.5 pts | -2.5 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Northwood | Labour | +1.2 pts | +2.1 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Uxbridge North | Conservative | +9.7 pts | +8.8 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Manor | Conservative | +7.8 pts | +8.8 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Cavendish | Conservative | +8.1 pts | +8.8 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2018 | West Drayton | Conservative | +8.2 pts | +8.8 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2018 | Brunel | Labour | +2.5 pts | +2.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2018 | South Ruislip | Green | +1.4 pts | +1.2 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Northwood Hills | Green | +1.0 pts | +1.2 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Ickenham | Liberal Democrats | -2.3 pts | -2.5 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Eastcote and East Ruislip | Liberal Democrats | -2.7 pts | -2.5 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Manor | Green | +1.1 pts | +1.2 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Uxbridge North | Labour | +2.1 pts | +2.1 pts | -0.0 pts |