Isle Of Wight: wards that bucked the trend
Isle Of Wight: in 2017, 37 ward results beat the expected swing and 56 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in East Cowes (+42.2 pts actual vs -6.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | East Cowes | Independent | +42.2 pts | -6.5 pts | +48.8 pts |
| 2017 | Newport Central | Independent | +42.0 pts | -6.5 pts | +48.6 pts |
| 2017 | Sandown North | Independent | +33.3 pts | -6.5 pts | +39.9 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde East | Liberal Democrats | -32.4 pts | +1.8 pts | -34.2 pts |
| 2017 | Newport Central | Conservative | -24.3 pts | +6.9 pts | -31.2 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde West | Independent | -34.2 pts | -6.5 pts | -27.7 pts |
| 2017 | Carisbrooke | Independent | -33.6 pts | -6.5 pts | -27.1 pts |
| 2017 | Ventnor East | Conservative | +33.8 pts | +6.9 pts | +26.9 pts |
| 2017 | Cowes North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -39.8 pts | -15.9 pts | -24.0 pts |
| 2017 | Lake North | Labour | -20.5 pts | +3.0 pts | -23.5 pts |
| 2017 | East Cowes | Conservative | -15.4 pts | +6.9 pts | -22.3 pts |
| 2017 | Totland | Independent | +14.8 pts | -6.5 pts | +21.4 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde North West | Independent | -27.7 pts | -6.5 pts | -21.1 pts |
| 2017 | Ventnor East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -36.7 pts | -15.9 pts | -20.9 pts |
| 2017 | Godshill and Wroxall | Independent | +13.6 pts | -6.5 pts | +20.2 pts |
| 2017 | Whippingham and Osborne | Conservative | -12.3 pts | +6.9 pts | -19.2 pts |
| 2017 | Cowes North | Conservative | -12.2 pts | +6.9 pts | -19.2 pts |
| 2017 | Wootton Bridge | Independent | +11.7 pts | -6.5 pts | +18.3 pts |
| 2017 | Parkhurst | Liberal Democrats | +19.6 pts | +1.8 pts | +17.8 pts |
| 2017 | Arreton and Newchurch | Independent | -24.1 pts | -6.5 pts | -17.5 pts |
| 2017 | Shanklin South | Conservative | -10.6 pts | +6.9 pts | -17.5 pts |
| 2017 | Ventnor East | Independent | -23.9 pts | -6.5 pts | -17.4 pts |
| 2017 | Ventnor West | Independent | -23.7 pts | -6.5 pts | -17.2 pts |
| 2017 | West Wight | Conservative | +23.9 pts | +6.9 pts | +16.9 pts |
| 2017 | Central Wight | Conservative | +22.9 pts | +6.9 pts | +16.0 pts |
| 2017 | Central Wight | Green | -3.3 pts | +11.9 pts | -15.2 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde South | Conservative | +21.0 pts | +6.9 pts | +14.1 pts |
| 2017 | Nettlestone And Seaview | Liberal Democrats | -12.3 pts | +1.8 pts | -14.1 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde East | Independent | -20.5 pts | -6.5 pts | -14.0 pts |
| 2017 | Arreton and Newchurch | Conservative | +20.7 pts | +6.9 pts | +13.8 pts |
| 2017 | Newport North | Conservative | +19.1 pts | +6.9 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2017 | Chale, Niton and Whitwell | Labour | -8.8 pts | +3.0 pts | -11.8 pts |
| 2017 | Freshwater South | Conservative | -4.6 pts | +6.9 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2017 | Cowes Medina | Conservative | -4.3 pts | +6.9 pts | -11.3 pts |
| 2017 | Brading, St Helens and Bembridge | Conservative | +16.9 pts | +6.9 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2017 | Brading, St Helens and Bembridge | Independent | -15.4 pts | -6.5 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2017 | Shanklin Central | Conservative | -1.4 pts | +6.9 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2017 | Sandown North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.6 pts | -15.9 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2017 | Lake South | Independent | +1.7 pts | -6.5 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde South | Labour | +11.0 pts | +3.0 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2017 | Ventnor West | Labour | -4.8 pts | +3.0 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2017 | Freshwater South | Independent | +1.2 pts | -6.5 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2017 | Parkhurst | Conservative | -0.7 pts | +6.9 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2017 | Freshwater North | Conservative | -0.6 pts | +6.9 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde East | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +6.9 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde West | Labour | +9.9 pts | +3.0 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2017 | Binstead And Fishbourne | Independent | -13.3 pts | -6.5 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2017 | Godshill and Wroxall | Conservative | +0.4 pts | +6.9 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2017 | Cowes Medina | Independent | -13.0 pts | -6.5 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2017 | Wootton Bridge | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -22.0 pts | -15.9 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2017 | Ventnor West | Conservative | +12.3 pts | +6.9 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2017 | Newport North | Labour | -2.4 pts | +3.0 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2017 | Cowes West And Gurnard | Conservative | +1.6 pts | +6.9 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2017 | Newport South | Conservative | +1.8 pts | +6.9 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde North East | Conservative | +11.9 pts | +6.9 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2017 | Lake North | Conservative | +11.7 pts | +6.9 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2017 | Newport South | Independent | -1.8 pts | -6.5 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2017 | Shanklin Central | Independent | -11.1 pts | -6.5 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2017 | Havenstreet, Ashey and Haylands | Liberal Democrats | -2.7 pts | +1.8 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2017 | Totland | Conservative | +11.2 pts | +6.9 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2017 | Sandown South | Conservative | +11.1 pts | +6.9 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2017 | Cowes Medina | Labour | -0.9 pts | +3.0 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2017 | Ventnor West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.0 pts | -15.9 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2017 | Newport Central | Labour | -0.8 pts | +3.0 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde South | Independent | -10.4 pts | -6.5 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde North West | Conservative | +10.7 pts | +6.9 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2017 | Lake South | Conservative | +10.7 pts | +6.9 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2017 | Havenstreet, Ashey and Haylands | Conservative | +3.3 pts | +6.9 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2017 | Ventnor East | Labour | +6.4 pts | +3.0 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2017 | Shanklin Central | Labour | -0.3 pts | +3.0 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde West | Liberal Democrats | +5.1 pts | +1.8 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2017 | Freshwater South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.6 pts | -15.9 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2017 | Wootton Bridge | Conservative | +4.3 pts | +6.9 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde West | Conservative | +4.6 pts | +6.9 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2017 | Carisbrooke | Conservative | +8.9 pts | +6.9 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2017 | Whippingham and Osborne | Independent | -4.8 pts | -6.5 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2017 | Wootton Bridge | Liberal Democrats | +0.2 pts | +1.8 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2017 | East Cowes | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | +1.8 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2017 | Ryde North East | Labour | +1.5 pts | +3.0 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2017 | Sandown North | Conservative | +8.0 pts | +6.9 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2017 | Havenstreet, Ashey and Haylands | Independent | -7.6 pts | -6.5 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2017 | Nettlestone And Seaview | Conservative | +8.0 pts | +6.9 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2017 | Binstead And Fishbourne | Conservative | +7.9 pts | +6.9 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2017 | Chale, Niton and Whitwell | Conservative | +6.0 pts | +6.9 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2017 | Brading, St Helens and Bembridge | Labour | +2.1 pts | +3.0 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2017 | Shanklin South | Independent | -7.2 pts | -6.5 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2017 | Binstead And Fishbourne | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.5 pts | -15.9 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2017 | Cowes South And Northwood | Conservative | +6.3 pts | +6.9 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2017 | West Wight | Labour | +3.6 pts | +3.0 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2017 | Sandown North | Labour | +2.5 pts | +3.0 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2017 | Binstead And Fishbourne | Labour | +2.7 pts | +3.0 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2017 | Lake North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.1 pts | -15.9 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2017 | Cowes West And Gurnard | Independent | -6.6 pts | -6.5 pts | -0.0 pts |