Islington: wards that bucked the trend
Islington: in 2018, 27 ward results beat the expected swing and 34 trailed it. The biggest gap was Green in Highbury East (+17.1 pts actual vs -2.9 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Highbury East | Green | +17.1 pts | -2.9 pts | +19.9 pts |
| 2018 | St George's | Green | +15.3 pts | -2.9 pts | +18.2 pts |
| 2018 | St Mary's | Liberal Democrats | +15.8 pts | -2.0 pts | +17.8 pts |
| 2018 | St George's | Liberal Democrats | -16.2 pts | -2.0 pts | -14.2 pts |
| 2018 | Hillrise | Liberal Democrats | -14.3 pts | -2.0 pts | -12.2 pts |
| 2018 | Highbury East | Liberal Democrats | -13.5 pts | -2.0 pts | -11.4 pts |
| 2018 | Holloway | Green | -12.8 pts | -2.9 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2018 | Tollington | Green | -11.7 pts | -2.9 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2018 | St George's | Labour | -4.1 pts | +4.5 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2018 | Barnsbury | Labour | -3.8 pts | +4.5 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2018 | Barnsbury | Liberal Democrats | +5.6 pts | -2.0 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2018 | Finsbury Park | Green | -10.3 pts | -2.9 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2018 | Canonbury | Liberal Democrats | -9.4 pts | -2.0 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2018 | Canonbury | Labour | +11.1 pts | +4.5 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2018 | St Peter's | Liberal Democrats | +4.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2018 | St Mary's | Conservative | -5.9 pts | +0.3 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2018 | St Mary's | Labour | -1.6 pts | +4.5 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2018 | St Mary's | Green | -8.3 pts | -2.9 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2018 | Bunhill | Conservative | -5.0 pts | +0.3 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2018 | Highbury West | Liberal Democrats | +3.1 pts | -2.0 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2018 | St Peter's | Conservative | -4.6 pts | +0.3 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2018 | Junction | Labour | +9.2 pts | +4.5 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2018 | Hillrise | Green | -7.3 pts | -2.9 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2018 | Junction | Green | -7.2 pts | -2.9 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Highbury West | Conservative | -3.8 pts | +0.3 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2018 | Bunhill | Liberal Democrats | +1.9 pts | -2.0 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2018 | Highbury West | Green | -6.6 pts | -2.9 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2018 | Tollington | Labour | +8.1 pts | +4.5 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2018 | Hillrise | Labour | +8.1 pts | +4.5 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2018 | Highbury East | Labour | +0.9 pts | +4.5 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2018 | Finsbury Park | Labour | +8.0 pts | +4.5 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2018 | Mildmay | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2018 | Bunhill | Green | +0.3 pts | -2.9 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2018 | Bunhill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.7 pts | -0.5 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2018 | Caledonian | Green | -6.0 pts | -2.9 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2018 | Mildmay | Labour | +7.3 pts | +4.5 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Highbury East | Conservative | -2.3 pts | +0.3 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2018 | Caledonian | Labour | +7.0 pts | +4.5 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2018 | Clerkenwell | Green | -5.4 pts | -2.9 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2018 | Caledonian | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Junction | Liberal Democrats | +0.2 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Junction | Conservative | -1.9 pts | +0.3 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Barnsbury | Green | -1.1 pts | -2.9 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Mildmay | Conservative | -1.3 pts | +0.3 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Caledonian | Conservative | -1.3 pts | +0.3 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2018 | St Peter's | Green | -4.4 pts | -2.9 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Canonbury | Green | -1.6 pts | -2.9 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Clerkenwell | Conservative | +1.3 pts | +0.3 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Holloway | Labour | +5.4 pts | +4.5 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Bunhill | Labour | +5.3 pts | +4.5 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2018 | Finsbury Park | Liberal Democrats | -2.8 pts | -2.0 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2018 | Clerkenwell | Liberal Democrats | -1.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2018 | Canonbury | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +0.3 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Junction | SOC | -0.4 pts | -0.0 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Highbury West | Labour | +4.2 pts | +4.5 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Mildmay | Green | -3.0 pts | -2.9 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Clerkenwell | Labour | +4.6 pts | +4.5 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2018 | St Peter's | Labour | +4.4 pts | +4.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Holloway | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | -2.0 pts | -0.0 pts |
| 2018 | Tollington | Liberal Democrats | -2.0 pts | -2.0 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2018 | Barnsbury | Conservative | +0.3 pts | +0.3 pts | +0.0 pts |