Kensington and Chelsea: wards that bucked the trend
Kensington and Chelsea: in 2022, 28 ward results beat the expected swing and 27 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Dalgarno (-15.5 pts actual vs +0.6 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Dalgarno | Labour | -15.5 pts | +0.6 pts | -16.1 pts |
| 2022 | Stanley | Liberal Democrats | +14.9 pts | +3.5 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2022 | Golborne | Conservative | +5.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2022 | Colville | Conservative | +4.6 pts | -3.5 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2022 | Norland | Conservative | -11.3 pts | -3.5 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2022 | Queen's Gate | Liberal Democrats | -4.0 pts | +3.5 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2022 | Redcliffe | Labour | +7.9 pts | +0.6 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2022 | Golborne | Labour | -6.6 pts | +0.6 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2022 | Earl's Court | Labour | -5.0 pts | +0.6 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2022 | Redcliffe | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | +3.5 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2022 | St. Helen's | Conservative | -9.1 pts | -3.5 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2022 | Queen's Gate | Labour | +6.0 pts | +0.6 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2022 | Earl's Court | Liberal Democrats | +8.7 pts | +3.5 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2022 | St. Helen's | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | +3.5 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2022 | Abingdon | Conservative | -8.6 pts | -3.5 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2022 | Courtfield | Labour | +5.6 pts | +0.6 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2022 | Stanley | Conservative | -8.5 pts | -3.5 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2022 | St. Helen's | Labour | +5.6 pts | +0.6 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2022 | Norland | Liberal Democrats | -1.3 pts | +3.5 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2022 | Abingdon | Liberal Democrats | +8.4 pts | +3.5 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2022 | Pembridge | Labour | +5.2 pts | +0.6 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2022 | Notting Dale | Conservative | +0.7 pts | -3.5 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2022 | Holland | Labour | -3.4 pts | +0.6 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2022 | Notting Dale | Labour | -3.2 pts | +0.6 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Norland | Labour | -3.1 pts | +0.6 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Chelsea Riverside | Conservative | +0.2 pts | -3.5 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2022 | Brompton and Hans Town | Conservative | -6.4 pts | -3.5 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Abingdon | Labour | +3.5 pts | +0.6 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Golborne | Liberal Democrats | +0.8 pts | +3.5 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Brompton and Hans Town | Liberal Democrats | +6.0 pts | +3.5 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Dalgarno | Liberal Democrats | +1.2 pts | +3.5 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2022 | Chelsea Riverside | Liberal Democrats | +1.5 pts | +3.5 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Queen's Gate | Conservative | -1.5 pts | -3.5 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Royal Hospital | Conservative | -5.4 pts | -3.5 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Dalgarno | Conservative | -1.7 pts | -3.5 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Chelsea Riverside | Labour | +2.4 pts | +0.6 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2022 | Royal Hospital | Liberal Democrats | +5.3 pts | +3.5 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Stanley | Labour | -1.0 pts | +0.6 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2022 | Notting Dale | Liberal Democrats | +5.1 pts | +3.5 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2022 | Colville | Liberal Democrats | +2.1 pts | +3.5 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2022 | Earl's Court | Green | +0.2 pts | +1.6 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2022 | Courtfield | Conservative | -4.8 pts | -3.5 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Colville | Labour | +1.9 pts | +0.6 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Campden | Conservative | -4.7 pts | -3.5 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Campden | Liberal Democrats | +4.7 pts | +3.5 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Campden | Labour | +1.8 pts | +0.6 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Courtfield | Liberal Democrats | +2.4 pts | +3.5 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Pembridge | Conservative | -4.6 pts | -3.5 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Brompton and Hans Town | Labour | +1.7 pts | +0.6 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2022 | Holland | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | +3.5 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Earl's Court | Conservative | -2.8 pts | -3.5 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Royal Hospital | Labour | +1.2 pts | +0.6 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Redcliffe | Conservative | -3.0 pts | -3.5 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Holland | Conservative | -3.1 pts | -3.5 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2022 | Pembridge | Liberal Democrats | +3.6 pts | +3.5 pts | +0.0 pts |