Knowsley: wards that bucked the trend
Knowsley: in 2024, 17 ward results beat the expected swing and 15 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Page Moss (-66.6 pts actual vs -2.9 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Page Moss | Labour | -66.6 pts | -2.9 pts | -63.7 pts |
| 2024 | Halewood South | Independent | +24.0 pts | +5.0 pts | +19.1 pts |
| 2024 | Prescot North | Labour | +14.4 pts | -2.9 pts | +17.3 pts |
| 2024 | Halewood South | Labour | -17.6 pts | -2.9 pts | -14.7 pts |
| 2024 | Roby | Labour | +11.5 pts | -2.9 pts | +14.5 pts |
| 2024 | Cherryfield | Labour | +10.0 pts | -2.9 pts | +12.9 pts |
| 2024 | Whiston & Cronton | Green | -13.6 pts | -1.7 pts | -11.9 pts |
| 2024 | St Gabriels | Labour | +8.2 pts | -2.9 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2024 | Halewood North | Independent | +15.6 pts | +5.0 pts | +10.6 pts |
| 2024 | Prescot North | Liberal Democrats | -15.1 pts | -6.0 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2024 | Prescot South | Green | +6.8 pts | -1.7 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2024 | St Michaels | Labour | +5.2 pts | -2.9 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2024 | Shevington | Green | +5.7 pts | -1.7 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2024 | Whiston & Cronton | Labour | +4.1 pts | -2.9 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2024 | Roby | Green | -8.2 pts | -1.7 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2024 | Northwood | Labour | -9.4 pts | -2.9 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2024 | Stockbridge | Labour | +3.5 pts | -2.9 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2024 | Northwood | Green | -6.9 pts | -1.7 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2024 | St Gabriels | Green | -6.8 pts | -1.7 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2024 | Whitefield | Independent | +10.0 pts | +5.0 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2024 | Prescot South | Labour | +2.1 pts | -2.9 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2024 | Halewood North | Labour | -7.7 pts | -2.9 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2024 | Swanside | Labour | +1.2 pts | -2.9 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2024 | Page Moss | Green | -5.5 pts | -1.7 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2024 | Swanside | Green | -5.5 pts | -1.7 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2024 | St Michaels | Green | -5.2 pts | -1.7 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Prescot South | Liberal Democrats | -9.4 pts | -6.0 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Shevington | Labour | -5.7 pts | -2.9 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2024 | Stockbridge | Green | -3.5 pts | -1.7 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2024 | Cherryfield | Green | -0.1 pts | -1.7 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2024 | Prescot North | Conservative | +0.7 pts | -0.7 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2024 | Prescot South | Conservative | +0.6 pts | -0.7 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2023 | Prescot South | Green | -37.6 pts | -1.7 pts | -35.9 pts |
| 2023 | Shevington | Labour | +21.6 pts | -1.2 pts | +22.9 pts |
| 2023 | Halewood South | Independent | -18.8 pts | -4.5 pts | -14.3 pts |
| 2023 | Halewood South | Labour | +12.4 pts | -1.2 pts | +13.6 pts |
| 2023 | Northwood | Labour | +11.4 pts | -1.2 pts | +12.7 pts |
| 2023 | St Michaels | Green | +8.9 pts | -1.7 pts | +10.6 pts |
| 2023 | Cherryfield | Labour | -10.8 pts | -1.2 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2023 | Halewood North | Independent | -13.0 pts | -4.5 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2023 | Northwood | Green | +6.8 pts | -1.7 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2023 | Whitefield | Labour | +6.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2023 | Whiston & Cronton | Green | +5.7 pts | -1.7 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2023 | Prescot North | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | +8.0 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2023 | Swanside | Green | +4.8 pts | -1.7 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2023 | Halewood North | Labour | +5.1 pts | -1.2 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2023 | Whiston & Cronton | Labour | -5.7 pts | -1.2 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2023 | Prescot South | Labour | +3.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2023 | St Gabriels | Green | +2.3 pts | -1.7 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2023 | Whitefield | Independent | -8.5 pts | -4.5 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2023 | Prescot North | Conservative | -3.2 pts | +0.8 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2023 | Prescot North | Labour | +1.9 pts | -1.2 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2023 | St Gabriels | Labour | -3.7 pts | -1.2 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2023 | Swanside | Labour | +1.1 pts | -1.2 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2023 | Prescot South | Conservative | -1.4 pts | +0.8 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2023 | Stockbridge | Green | +0.0 pts | -1.7 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2023 | Page Moss | Labour | +0.3 pts | -1.2 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2023 | Page Moss | Green | -0.3 pts | -1.7 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2023 | St Michaels | Labour | +0.1 pts | -1.2 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2023 | Roby | Labour | -2.5 pts | -1.2 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2023 | Stockbridge | Labour | -0.0 pts | -1.2 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2023 | Roby | Green | -0.8 pts | -1.7 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2022 | Swanside | Green | -25.8 pts | -1.6 pts | -24.2 pts |
| 2022 | Swanside | Labour | +19.9 pts | +3.1 pts | +16.8 pts |
| 2022 | Shevington | Labour | -12.3 pts | +3.1 pts | -15.3 pts |
| 2022 | Halewood North | Independent | +15.6 pts | +2.8 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2022 | Roby | Green | +8.8 pts | -1.6 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2022 | Northwood | Labour | -7.0 pts | +3.1 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2022 | Halewood North | Labour | +12.6 pts | +3.1 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2022 | St Gabriels | Green | +7.1 pts | -1.6 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2022 | Prescot North | Labour | -5.1 pts | +3.1 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2022 | St Gabriels | Labour | -5.1 pts | +3.1 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2022 | Halewood South | Independent | +10.6 pts | +2.8 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2022 | Halewood South | Labour | -3.2 pts | +3.1 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2022 | Prescot North | Liberal Democrats | +4.6 pts | -1.4 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2022 | Whiston & Cronton | Labour | +8.7 pts | +3.1 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2022 | Page Moss | Labour | +8.3 pts | +3.1 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2022 | Cherryfield | Labour | +8.2 pts | +3.1 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2022 | Prescot South | Labour | -1.2 pts | +3.1 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2022 | Whiston & Cronton | Green | +2.6 pts | -1.6 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2022 | Prescot North | Conservative | +0.5 pts | -3.0 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2022 | Whitefield | Independent | +6.1 pts | +2.8 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2022 | Northwood | TUSC | +3.7 pts | +0.7 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Whitefield | Labour | +0.3 pts | +3.1 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2022 | Shevington | Conservative | -4.9 pts | -3.0 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Stockbridge | Labour | +1.7 pts | +3.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2022 | St Michaels | Liberal Democrats | -0.2 pts | -1.4 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | St Michaels | Labour | +2.3 pts | +3.1 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2022 | Prescot South | Green | -2.2 pts | -1.6 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2022 | St Michaels | Green | -2.1 pts | -1.6 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2022 | Roby | Labour | +2.8 pts | +3.1 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Page Moss | Green | -1.8 pts | -1.6 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Stockbridge | Green | -1.7 pts | -1.6 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Whitefield | Labour | -39.4 pts | -5.1 pts | -34.3 pts |
| 2021 | Halewood North | Independent | -18.2 pts | +2.7 pts | -20.8 pts |
| 2021 | Prescot North | Labour | +13.8 pts | -5.1 pts | +18.9 pts |
| 2021 | St Gabriels | Labour | -24.0 pts | -5.1 pts | -18.9 pts |
| 2021 | Prescot South | Labour | +9.6 pts | -5.1 pts | +14.7 pts |
| 2021 | Prescot North | Liberal Democrats | -13.9 pts | +0.4 pts | -14.2 pts |
| 2021 | Swanside | Green | +14.8 pts | +3.4 pts | +11.4 pts |
| 2021 | Whiston & Cronton | Green | -7.8 pts | +3.4 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2021 | Cherryfield | Labour | +5.7 pts | -5.1 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2021 | Prescot South | Green | -6.5 pts | +3.4 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2021 | Whiston & Cronton | Labour | +3.6 pts | -5.1 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2021 | Stockbridge | Labour | +3.5 pts | -5.1 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2021 | Halewood North | Conservative | +5.8 pts | -2.3 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2021 | St Michaels | Liberal Democrats | -6.9 pts | +0.4 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2021 | Swanside | Labour | -12.4 pts | -5.1 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2021 | Halewood South | Labour | -12.3 pts | -5.1 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2021 | Northwood | Labour | +2.1 pts | -5.1 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2021 | Whiston & Cronton | Conservative | +4.2 pts | -2.3 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2021 | Page Moss | Green | +9.7 pts | +3.4 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Roby | Green | -2.5 pts | +3.4 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Page Moss | Labour | -11.0 pts | -5.1 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2021 | Halewood South | Conservative | +3.5 pts | -2.3 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2021 | Roby | Conservative | +3.1 pts | -2.3 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2021 | St Michaels | Labour | -0.2 pts | -5.1 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2021 | Shevington | Labour | -0.4 pts | -5.1 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2021 | Cherryfield | Green | -1.2 pts | +3.4 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Roby | Labour | -0.5 pts | -5.1 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Halewood South | Independent | +7.1 pts | +2.7 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2021 | Page Moss | Conservative | +1.3 pts | -2.3 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Shevington | Conservative | +1.1 pts | -2.3 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2021 | Prescot North | Conservative | +0.0 pts | -2.3 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Halewood North | Labour | -3.6 pts | -5.1 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Stockbridge | Green | +1.9 pts | +3.4 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Halewood South | Independent | -50.2 pts | -0.8 pts | -49.4 pts |
| 2019 | Roby | Conservative | -20.9 pts | -0.4 pts | -20.6 pts |
| 2019 | Halewood North | Independent | +18.2 pts | -0.8 pts | +19.0 pts |
| 2019 | Roby | Green | +24.8 pts | +6.4 pts | +18.4 pts |
| 2019 | St Gabriels | Conservative | +16.2 pts | -0.4 pts | +16.5 pts |
| 2019 | Whiston & Cronton | Green | +22.5 pts | +6.4 pts | +16.1 pts |
| 2019 | Whiston & Cronton | Labour | -14.4 pts | -2.6 pts | -11.8 pts |
| 2019 | Shevington | Labour | -12.8 pts | -2.6 pts | -10.2 pts |
| 2019 | Halewood South | Conservative | -10.5 pts | -0.4 pts | -10.2 pts |
| 2019 | Halewood North | Labour | -12.1 pts | -2.6 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2019 | Cherryfield | Labour | -11.0 pts | -2.6 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2019 | Page Moss | Labour | -10.9 pts | -2.6 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Northwood | Labour | -10.5 pts | -2.6 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2019 | Swanside | Conservative | -6.9 pts | -0.4 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2019 | Cherryfield | Green | +12.9 pts | +6.4 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2019 | Swanside | Labour | -8.8 pts | -2.6 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2019 | St Michaels | Labour | -8.6 pts | -2.6 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2019 | Prescot South | Green | +2.2 pts | +6.4 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Whiston & Cronton | Conservative | -3.9 pts | -0.4 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Prescot North | Labour | +0.4 pts | -2.6 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Roby | Labour | +0.1 pts | -2.6 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Whitefield | Labour | -5.2 pts | -2.6 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | St Gabriels | Labour | -0.0 pts | -2.6 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Stockbridge | Green | +8.0 pts | +6.4 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Cherryfield | Conservative | -1.9 pts | -0.4 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Prescot North | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | -1.7 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Prescot South | Conservative | +0.3 pts | -0.4 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Page Moss | Green | +5.8 pts | +6.4 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Northwood | Green | +6.0 pts | +6.4 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Stockbridge | Labour | -2.2 pts | -2.6 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2019 | St Michaels | Conservative | +0.0 pts | -0.4 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Prescot North | Conservative | -0.0 pts | -0.4 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Prescot South | Labour | -2.5 pts | -2.6 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Halewood South | Independent | +77.5 pts | +4.7 pts | +72.8 pts |
| 2018 | Whitefield | Labour | +20.8 pts | -10.6 pts | +31.5 pts |
| 2018 | Prescot South | Labour | -36.7 pts | -10.6 pts | -26.0 pts |
| 2018 | Roby | Conservative | +23.6 pts | +4.0 pts | +19.5 pts |
| 2018 | St Gabriels | Labour | +4.1 pts | -10.6 pts | +14.8 pts |
| 2018 | St Gabriels | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -17.5 pts | -2.8 pts | -14.7 pts |
| 2018 | Northwood | Labour | +3.0 pts | -10.6 pts | +13.6 pts |
| 2018 | Cherryfield | Labour | -0.5 pts | -10.6 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2018 | Shevington | Labour | -0.7 pts | -10.6 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2018 | Halewood North | Independent | +14.3 pts | +4.7 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2018 | Whiston & Cronton | Labour | -19.3 pts | -10.6 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2018 | Prescot North | Labour | -3.1 pts | -10.6 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2018 | Stockbridge | Independent | -1.3 pts | +4.7 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2018 | St Michaels | Labour | -4.9 pts | -10.6 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2018 | Prescot North | Liberal Democrats | +3.9 pts | -1.5 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2018 | Roby | Labour | -15.9 pts | -10.6 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2018 | Halewood South | Conservative | +9.0 pts | +4.0 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2018 | Prescot South | Conservative | -0.7 pts | +4.0 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2018 | Roby | Independent | +0.5 pts | +4.7 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2018 | Halewood North | Labour | -13.8 pts | -10.6 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2018 | St Michaels | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +0.4 pts | -2.8 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2018 | Roby | Green | +13.2 pts | +10.8 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2018 | Swanside | Labour | -8.5 pts | -10.6 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Whiston & Cronton | Conservative | +6.1 pts | +4.0 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Shevington | TUSC | +0.7 pts | -1.3 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Prescot North | Conservative | +2.7 pts | +4.0 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Page Moss | Green | +9.7 pts | +10.8 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Page Moss | Labour | -9.7 pts | -10.6 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Swanside | Conservative | +4.9 pts | +4.0 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2018 | St Gabriels | Conservative | +4.7 pts | +4.0 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2018 | Cherryfield | Conservative | +3.5 pts | +4.0 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2018 | St Michaels | Conservative | +4.5 pts | +4.0 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Stockbridge | Labour | -10.9 pts | -10.6 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2015 | Whiston South | Labour | -14.7 pts | +7.6 pts | -22.3 pts |
| 2015 | St Gabriels | Labour | -7.4 pts | +7.6 pts | -15.0 pts |
| 2015 | Whiston North | Labour | -6.3 pts | +7.6 pts | -13.9 pts |
| 2015 | Prescot East | Liberal Democrats | -13.2 pts | -1.4 pts | -11.8 pts |
| 2015 | St Bartholomews | Labour | +17.6 pts | +7.6 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2015 | Kirkby Central | Labour | +16.9 pts | +7.6 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2015 | Whiston South | Conservative | -8.2 pts | +0.8 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2015 | St Michaels | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -10.7 pts | -2.0 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2015 | Roby | Independent | -8.5 pts | -1.5 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2015 | Halewood South | TUSC | -6.2 pts | +0.1 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2015 | Whitefield | Labour | +2.1 pts | +7.6 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2015 | Longview | Labour | +2.1 pts | +7.6 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2015 | Prescot West | Labour | +12.5 pts | +7.6 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2015 | Prescot West | Liberal Democrats | -5.3 pts | -1.4 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2015 | St Michaels | Labour | +11.5 pts | +7.6 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2015 | Prescot West | Conservative | +4.6 pts | +0.8 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2015 | Prescot East | Labour | +4.1 pts | +7.6 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2015 | Swanside | Labour | +11.1 pts | +7.6 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2015 | Roby | Labour | +4.2 pts | +7.6 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2015 | Northwood | Labour | +10.5 pts | +7.6 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2015 | Halewood South | Green | -1.1 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2015 | Roby | Conservative | -1.9 pts | +0.8 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2015 | Stockbridge | TUSC | -2.5 pts | +0.1 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2015 | Roby | Liberal Democrats | +1.2 pts | -1.4 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2015 | Cherryfield | Labour | +10.0 pts | +7.6 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2015 | Halewood South | Labour | +5.6 pts | +7.6 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2015 | St Michaels | Conservative | -1.0 pts | +0.8 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2015 | Stockbridge | Labour | +6.4 pts | +7.6 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2015 | Halewood South | Conservative | +1.8 pts | +0.8 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2015 | St Gabriels | Conservative | +0.1 pts | +0.8 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2015 | Park | Labour | +8.0 pts | +7.6 pts | +0.4 pts |