Leicester: wards that bucked the trend
Leicester: in 2019, 31 ward results beat the expected swing and 50 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Western (-15.1 pts actual vs -1.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Western | Liberal Democrats | -15.1 pts | -1.2 pts | -13.9 pts |
| 2019 | Spinney Hills | Liberal Democrats | -13.2 pts | -1.2 pts | -12.0 pts |
| 2019 | Aylestone | Liberal Democrats | +10.7 pts | -1.2 pts | +11.9 pts |
| 2019 | Wycliffe | Labour | -1.0 pts | +10.4 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Labour | +21.3 pts | +10.4 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2019 | Fosse | Green | -10.8 pts | -1.0 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2019 | Humberstone & Hamilton | Labour | +19.6 pts | +10.4 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Green | -10.1 pts | -1.0 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2019 | Spinney Hills | Labour | +1.5 pts | +10.4 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2019 | Westcotes | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +0.4 pts | -8.4 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2019 | Aylestone | Labour | +2.1 pts | +10.4 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Fosse | Labour | +2.6 pts | +10.4 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2019 | Eyres Monsell | Labour | +2.9 pts | +10.4 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Saffron | Liberal Democrats | +6.0 pts | -1.2 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2019 | Braunstone Park & Rowley Fields | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.3 pts | -8.4 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2019 | Abbey | Conservative | -5.4 pts | +1.1 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2019 | Fosse | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.5 pts | -8.4 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2019 | North Evington | Labour | +4.5 pts | +10.4 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2019 | Belgrave | Conservative | -4.9 pts | +1.1 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2019 | Eyres Monsell | Green | +4.7 pts | -1.0 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Conservative | -4.6 pts | +1.1 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Humberstone & Hamilton | Conservative | -4.5 pts | +1.1 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Stoneygate | Liberal Democrats | -6.4 pts | -1.2 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Belgrave | Labour | +5.3 pts | +10.4 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2019 | Knighton | Labour | +5.4 pts | +10.4 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Saffron | Green | +3.9 pts | -1.0 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Western | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -13.1 pts | -8.4 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2019 | Rushey Mead | Conservative | -3.5 pts | +1.1 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Beaumont Leys | Green | +3.4 pts | -1.0 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Westcotes | Green | -5.4 pts | -1.0 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Western | Green | +3.2 pts | -1.0 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Stoneygate | Conservative | +5.2 pts | +1.1 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Aylestone | Green | -5.0 pts | -1.0 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Evington | Labour | +6.5 pts | +10.4 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Eyres Monsell | Conservative | -2.8 pts | +1.1 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Abbey | Labour | +14.2 pts | +10.4 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Stoneygate | Labour | +6.8 pts | +10.4 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Aylestone | Conservative | -2.5 pts | +1.1 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Abbey | Green | +2.4 pts | -1.0 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Troon | Green | +2.3 pts | -1.0 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Westcotes | Conservative | -2.3 pts | +1.1 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2019 | Saffron | Conservative | -1.9 pts | +1.1 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Thurncourt | Labour | +7.4 pts | +10.4 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Evington | Conservative | -1.9 pts | +1.1 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Saffron | Labour | +7.5 pts | +10.4 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Knighton | Green | +1.8 pts | -1.0 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Humberstone & Hamilton | Green | +1.8 pts | -1.0 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Wycliffe | Conservative | +3.9 pts | +1.1 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Troon | Labour | +7.7 pts | +10.4 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Eyres Monsell | Liberal Democrats | +1.5 pts | -1.2 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Rushey Mead | Labour | +7.9 pts | +10.4 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Rushey Mead | Liberal Democrats | +1.4 pts | -1.2 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Western | Labour | +7.9 pts | +10.4 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Beaumont Leys | Labour | +8.3 pts | +10.4 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Eyres Monsell | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.3 pts | -8.4 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Thurncourt | Green | -3.0 pts | -1.0 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2019 | North Evington | Conservative | -0.8 pts | +1.1 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Beaumont Leys | Conservative | -0.8 pts | +1.1 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Braunstone Park & Rowley Fields | Labour | +8.6 pts | +10.4 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Aylestone | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.5 pts | -8.4 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Thurncourt | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -10.2 pts | -8.4 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Westcotes | Labour | +12.2 pts | +10.4 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Braunstone Park & Rowley Fields | Liberal Democrats | -2.9 pts | -1.2 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Knighton | Conservative | -0.5 pts | +1.1 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Rushey Mead | Green | +0.5 pts | -1.0 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Stoneygate | Green | -2.5 pts | -1.0 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Liberal Democrats | +0.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Belgrave | Green | +0.3 pts | -1.0 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Knighton | Liberal Democrats | +0.0 pts | -1.2 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | North Evington | Green | +0.2 pts | -1.0 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Braunstone Park & Rowley Fields | Green | +0.1 pts | -1.0 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Wycliffe | Liberal Democrats | -2.4 pts | -1.2 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Beaumont Leys | Liberal Democrats | -2.2 pts | -1.2 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Westcotes | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | -1.2 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Evington | Green | -0.3 pts | -1.0 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Troon | Conservative | +0.5 pts | +1.1 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Abbey | Liberal Democrats | -1.7 pts | -1.2 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Abbey | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.9 pts | -8.4 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Spinney Hills | Green | -0.7 pts | -1.0 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Thurncourt | Conservative | +1.4 pts | +1.1 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Beaumont Leys | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.5 pts | -8.4 pts | -0.1 pts |