Lewisham: wards that bucked the trend
Lewisham: in 2018, 34 ward results beat the expected swing and 40 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Rushey Green (-15.4 pts actual vs +7.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Rushey Green | Labour | -15.4 pts | +7.5 pts | -22.9 pts |
| 2018 | Downham | Liberal Democrats | -17.7 pts | +2.5 pts | -20.2 pts |
| 2018 | Sydenham | Labour | -8.7 pts | +7.5 pts | -16.2 pts |
| 2018 | New Cross | Labour | +22.7 pts | +7.5 pts | +15.2 pts |
| 2018 | Telegraph Hill | Labour | +21.5 pts | +7.5 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2018 | Downham | Labour | +21.1 pts | +7.5 pts | +13.6 pts |
| 2018 | Grove Park | Conservative | +7.9 pts | +1.5 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2018 | Ladywell | Labour | +1.1 pts | +7.5 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2018 | Whitefoot | Conservative | +7.8 pts | +1.5 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2018 | Lewisham Central | Labour | +1.4 pts | +7.5 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2018 | Downham | Conservative | +7.3 pts | +1.5 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2018 | Perry Vale | Liberal Democrats | +8.2 pts | +2.5 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2018 | Downham | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.4 pts | -2.5 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2018 | Grove Park | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.3 pts | -2.5 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2018 | Crofton Park | Liberal Democrats | +7.3 pts | +2.5 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2018 | Sydenham | Liberal Democrats | +6.8 pts | +2.5 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Lewisham Central | Green | -0.5 pts | -4.7 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2018 | Brockley | Conservative | -2.4 pts | +1.5 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2018 | Blackheath | Conservative | -2.4 pts | +1.5 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2018 | Ladywell | Conservative | -2.3 pts | +1.5 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2018 | Whitefoot | Labour | +11.1 pts | +7.5 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2018 | Evelyn | Labour | +11.0 pts | +7.5 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2018 | Perry Vale | Green | -8.1 pts | -4.7 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2018 | Telegraph Hill | Liberal Democrats | +5.8 pts | +2.5 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2018 | Whitefoot | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | +2.5 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2018 | Bellingham | Labour | +4.3 pts | +7.5 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2018 | Perry Vale | Conservative | -1.6 pts | +1.5 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2018 | Forest Hill | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | +2.5 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2018 | Catford South | Liberal Democrats | +5.5 pts | +2.5 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2018 | Lewisham Central | Liberal Democrats | +5.4 pts | +2.5 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Brockley | Labour | +10.1 pts | +7.5 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2018 | Perry Vale | Labour | +10.1 pts | +7.5 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2018 | Telegraph Hill | Green | -7.1 pts | -4.7 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2018 | New Cross | Conservative | +3.9 pts | +1.5 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2018 | Forest Hill | Green | -2.4 pts | -4.7 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Downham | Green | -2.5 pts | -4.7 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Crofton Park | Conservative | -0.5 pts | +1.5 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Catford South | Labour | +9.5 pts | +7.5 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Sydenham | Conservative | -0.5 pts | +1.5 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2018 | Lewisham Central | Conservative | -0.3 pts | +1.5 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Rushey Green | Green | -6.5 pts | -4.7 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Crofton Park | Labour | +5.8 pts | +7.5 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Bellingham | Conservative | +3.2 pts | +1.5 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2018 | Whitefoot | Green | -3.0 pts | -4.7 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2018 | New Cross | Liberal Democrats | +4.1 pts | +2.5 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Grove Park | Green | -6.3 pts | -4.7 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Lee Green | Liberal Democrats | +1.1 pts | +2.5 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Blackheath | Liberal Democrats | +3.9 pts | +2.5 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Forest Hill | Labour | +8.9 pts | +7.5 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Forest Hill | Conservative | +0.1 pts | +1.5 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Blackheath | Green | -6.1 pts | -4.7 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Sydenham | Green | -6.0 pts | -4.7 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Brockley | Liberal Democrats | +1.2 pts | +2.5 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Evelyn | Green | -6.0 pts | -4.7 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2018 | Lee Green | Conservative | +2.7 pts | +1.5 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Catford South | Green | -5.8 pts | -4.7 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2018 | New Cross | Green | -5.8 pts | -4.7 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2018 | Catford South | Conservative | +0.5 pts | +1.5 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Crofton Park | Green | -3.7 pts | -4.7 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2018 | Telegraph Hill | Conservative | +0.7 pts | +1.5 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Bellingham | Liberal Democrats | +3.1 pts | +2.5 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2018 | Bellingham | Green | -5.3 pts | -4.7 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Grove Park | Liberal Democrats | +2.0 pts | +2.5 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Lee Green | Labour | +7.0 pts | +7.5 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Brockley | Green | -4.4 pts | -4.7 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Grove Park | Labour | +7.8 pts | +7.5 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Brockley | TUSC | -0.9 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Lee Green | Green | -4.4 pts | -4.7 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Ladywell | Liberal Democrats | +2.7 pts | +2.5 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Ladywell | Green | -4.8 pts | -4.7 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Blackheath | Labour | +7.4 pts | +7.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Evelyn | Liberal Democrats | +2.4 pts | +2.5 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Rushey Green | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | +2.5 pts | -0.0 pts |
| 2018 | Rushey Green | Conservative | +1.5 pts | +1.5 pts | -0.0 pts |