Lincolnshire: wards that bucked the trend
Lincolnshire: in 2021, 92 ward results beat the expected swing and 76 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Stamford West (-34.9 pts actual vs +2.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Stamford West | Conservative | -34.9 pts | +2.2 pts | -37.1 pts |
| 2021 | Gainsborough Trent | Liberal Democrats | +29.2 pts | +0.1 pts | +29.1 pts |
| 2021 | Louth South | Independent | +32.7 pts | +4.1 pts | +28.6 pts |
| 2021 | Ruskington | Conservative | +29.4 pts | +2.2 pts | +27.2 pts |
| 2021 | Alford and Sutton | Conservative | +28.3 pts | +2.2 pts | +26.0 pts |
| 2021 | Market Rasen Wolds | Liberal Democrats | +25.6 pts | +0.1 pts | +25.5 pts |
| 2021 | Spalding West | Conservative | -20.6 pts | +2.2 pts | -22.8 pts |
| 2021 | Wainfleet | Conservative | +23.8 pts | +2.2 pts | +21.5 pts |
| 2021 | Gainsborough Hill | Liberal Democrats | +21.6 pts | +0.1 pts | +21.5 pts |
| 2021 | Louth South | Labour | -24.0 pts | -2.6 pts | -21.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bourne South and Thurlby | Labour | +18.2 pts | -2.6 pts | +20.7 pts |
| 2021 | Boston North | Conservative | +22.9 pts | +2.2 pts | +20.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bourne South and Thurlby | Conservative | +22.1 pts | +2.2 pts | +19.9 pts |
| 2021 | Gainsborough Trent | Independent | -15.0 pts | +4.1 pts | -19.1 pts |
| 2021 | Louth North | Labour | -21.1 pts | -2.6 pts | -18.6 pts |
| 2021 | Mablethorpe | Conservative | +20.2 pts | +2.2 pts | +18.0 pts |
| 2021 | North Wolds | Conservative | -15.6 pts | +2.2 pts | -17.8 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham East | Independent | +21.6 pts | +4.1 pts | +17.5 pts |
| 2021 | Folkingham Rural | Independent | -12.4 pts | +4.1 pts | -16.5 pts |
| 2021 | Louth North | Conservative | -14.2 pts | +2.2 pts | -16.4 pts |
| 2021 | Donington Rural | Conservative | -14.0 pts | +2.2 pts | -16.3 pts |
| 2021 | Horncastle and the Keals | Conservative | -13.3 pts | +2.2 pts | -15.6 pts |
| 2021 | Colsterworth Rural | Labour | +12.6 pts | -2.6 pts | +15.1 pts |
| 2021 | Spalding South | Conservative | -11.9 pts | +2.2 pts | -14.1 pts |
| 2021 | Ruskington | Labour | +11.4 pts | -2.6 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2021 | Boston West | Liberal Democrats | -13.5 pts | +0.1 pts | -13.6 pts |
| 2021 | Deepings East | Conservative | -11.1 pts | +2.2 pts | -13.3 pts |
| 2021 | Mablethorpe | Labour | +10.7 pts | -2.6 pts | +13.3 pts |
| 2021 | Spalding East | Conservative | -10.8 pts | +2.2 pts | -13.1 pts |
| 2021 | Scotter Rural | Conservative | -10.8 pts | +2.2 pts | -13.1 pts |
| 2021 | Hykeham Forum | Conservative | +15.2 pts | +2.2 pts | +13.0 pts |
| 2021 | The Suttons | Independent | -8.8 pts | +4.1 pts | -12.9 pts |
| 2021 | The Suttons | Conservative | +14.8 pts | +2.2 pts | +12.6 pts |
| 2021 | Heckington | Conservative | +14.7 pts | +2.2 pts | +12.5 pts |
| 2021 | Stamford East | Conservative | -10.1 pts | +2.2 pts | -12.4 pts |
| 2021 | Saltfleet and the Cotes | Conservative | -9.8 pts | +2.2 pts | -12.1 pts |
| 2021 | Gainsborough Rural South | Liberal Democrats | -11.9 pts | +0.1 pts | -12.0 pts |
| 2021 | Gainsborough Hill | Labour | -14.5 pts | -2.6 pts | -12.0 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham West | Labour | +9.2 pts | -2.6 pts | +11.8 pts |
| 2021 | Hough | Independent | -7.4 pts | +4.1 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2021 | Alford and Sutton | Labour | +8.8 pts | -2.6 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2021 | Boston South | Independent | +15.2 pts | +4.1 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2021 | Sleaford Rural | Conservative | -8.0 pts | +2.2 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2021 | Park | Liberal Democrats | +10.1 pts | +0.1 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham South | Green | +10.9 pts | +1.0 pts | +9.9 pts |
| 2021 | Boston Coastal | Conservative | +12.0 pts | +2.2 pts | +9.8 pts |
| 2021 | Heckington | Labour | +7.2 pts | -2.6 pts | +9.8 pts |
| 2021 | Louth South | Conservative | -7.3 pts | +2.2 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2021 | Tattershall Castle | Conservative | +11.8 pts | +2.2 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2021 | Skirbeck | Labour | -11.8 pts | -2.6 pts | -9.2 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham East | Conservative | -6.8 pts | +2.2 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2021 | Gainsborough Rural South | Conservative | +11.2 pts | +2.2 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2021 | Gainsborough Rural South | Labour | +6.3 pts | -2.6 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2021 | Welton Rural | Conservative | -6.4 pts | +2.2 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2021 | Washingborough | Liberal Democrats | -8.4 pts | +0.1 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham South | Labour | -6.9 pts | +1.2 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2021 | Gainsborough Hill | Conservative | -5.4 pts | +2.2 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2021 | Colsterworth Rural | Conservative | +9.7 pts | +2.2 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2021 | Louth Wolds | Labour | +4.8 pts | -2.6 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2021 | North Wolds | Labour | -9.9 pts | -2.6 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2021 | Holbeach | Conservative | +9.6 pts | +2.2 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2021 | Sleaford | Independent | -3.2 pts | +4.1 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2021 | Gainsborough Trent | Conservative | -4.6 pts | +2.2 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2021 | Market Rasen Wolds | Conservative | -4.6 pts | +2.2 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2021 | Birchwood | Conservative | +9.0 pts | +2.2 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2021 | Hartsholme | Conservative | +9.0 pts | +2.2 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2021 | Boston North | Labour | +4.1 pts | -2.6 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2021 | Boston Rural | Conservative | +8.8 pts | +2.2 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham East | Labour | -8.8 pts | -2.6 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Bardney and Cherry Willingham | Conservative | +8.5 pts | +2.2 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2021 | Park | Conservative | -3.9 pts | +2.2 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2021 | Eagle and Hykeham West | Liberal Democrats | -6.0 pts | +0.1 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2021 | Crowland | Conservative | -3.8 pts | +2.2 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2021 | Skegness North | Conservative | +8.2 pts | +2.2 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Ermine and Cathedral | Labour | +3.3 pts | -2.6 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2021 | Stamford East | Labour | +3.3 pts | -2.6 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2021 | Scotter Rural | Liberal Democrats | +5.9 pts | +0.1 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham North | Conservative | -3.5 pts | +2.2 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bourne North and Morton | Labour | +3.1 pts | -2.6 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2021 | Hykeham Forum | Labour | +3.1 pts | -2.6 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham North | Labour | +3.0 pts | -2.6 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2021 | St Giles | Liberal Democrats | +5.7 pts | +0.1 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2021 | Skegness North | Labour | -8.1 pts | -2.6 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham North | Green | +6.4 pts | +1.0 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bardney and Cherry Willingham | Labour | +2.9 pts | -2.6 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2021 | Potterhanworth and Coleby | Labour | +2.9 pts | -2.6 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bourne North and Morton | Conservative | -3.1 pts | +2.2 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2021 | Wainfleet | Labour | +2.7 pts | -2.6 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2021 | Spalding Elloe | Independent | +9.1 pts | +4.1 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2021 | Hough | Labour | +2.2 pts | -2.6 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2021 | Louth Wolds | Conservative | +6.9 pts | +2.2 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2021 | Washingborough | Conservative | -2.4 pts | +2.2 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Folkingham Rural | Conservative | +6.8 pts | +2.2 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Sleaford | Conservative | -2.3 pts | +2.2 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2021 | Sleaford | Labour | +2.0 pts | -2.6 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2021 | Boston Rural | Labour | +1.9 pts | -2.6 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2021 | Hartsholme | Green | +5.3 pts | +1.0 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2021 | Skegness South | Conservative | +6.4 pts | +2.2 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2021 | Park | Labour | -6.6 pts | -2.6 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2021 | Spalding Elloe | Labour | +1.5 pts | -2.6 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2021 | Nettleham and Saxilby | Liberal Democrats | -3.9 pts | +0.1 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham Barrowby | Conservative | +6.2 pts | +2.2 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2021 | Boston West | Conservative | +6.2 pts | +2.2 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2021 | Deepings West and Rural | Conservative | -1.5 pts | +2.2 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2021 | St Giles | Green | +4.7 pts | +1.0 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Nettleham and Saxilby | Labour | +1.1 pts | -2.6 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Nettleham and Saxilby | Conservative | -1.4 pts | +2.2 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Spalding Elloe | Green | +4.6 pts | +1.0 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Carholme | Green | +4.6 pts | +1.0 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Saltfleet and the Cotes | Labour | -6.2 pts | -2.6 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Woodhall Spa and Wragby | Labour | +1.0 pts | -2.6 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2021 | Skegness South | Labour | -5.9 pts | -2.6 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Woodhall Spa and Wragby | Conservative | -1.0 pts | +2.2 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2021 | Holbeach Rural | Conservative | +5.3 pts | +2.2 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2021 | Market Rasen Wolds | Labour | +0.5 pts | -2.6 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2021 | Hough | Conservative | +5.2 pts | +2.2 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2021 | Boston South | Labour | +0.3 pts | -2.6 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2021 | St Giles | Labour | -5.4 pts | -2.6 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Birchwood | Green | +3.8 pts | +1.0 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Boston West | Labour | -5.3 pts | -2.6 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Boultham | Green | +3.6 pts | +1.0 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham South | Conservative | +4.8 pts | +2.2 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Potterhanworth and Coleby | Liberal Democrats | -2.5 pts | +0.1 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham West | Green | +3.5 pts | +1.0 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Deepings West and Rural | Independent | +1.5 pts | +4.1 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Bassingham and Welbourn | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +2.2 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Swallow Beck and Witham | Green | +3.2 pts | +1.0 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Metheringham Rural | Labour | -0.4 pts | -2.6 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Eagle and Hykeham West | Conservative | +4.4 pts | +2.2 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Carholme | Liberal Democrats | -2.0 pts | +0.1 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Waddington and Hykeham East | Labour | -0.5 pts | -2.6 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Swallow Beck and Witham | Conservative | +4.2 pts | +2.2 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Sleaford Rural | Labour | -4.4 pts | -2.6 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2021 | St Giles | Conservative | +0.4 pts | +2.2 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Park | Green | +2.7 pts | +1.0 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Boultham | Labour | -1.0 pts | -2.6 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Ingoldmells Rural | Conservative | +3.8 pts | +2.2 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Scotter Rural | Labour | -1.0 pts | -2.6 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Welton Rural | Independent | +2.6 pts | +4.1 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Washingborough | Labour | -1.1 pts | -2.6 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Tattershall Castle | Labour | -1.1 pts | -2.6 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Metheringham Rural | Conservative | +3.7 pts | +2.2 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Potterhanworth and Coleby | Conservative | +0.7 pts | +2.2 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Spalding Elloe | Conservative | +0.8 pts | +2.2 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Sleaford | Liberal Democrats | +1.5 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Hartsholme | Liberal Democrats | -1.3 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Stamford West | Labour | -1.2 pts | -2.6 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Carholme | Labour | -3.9 pts | -2.6 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Boston North | Liberal Democrats | -1.0 pts | +0.1 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Boultham | Liberal Democrats | +1.1 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Gainsborough Trent | Labour | -3.6 pts | -2.6 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Spalding South | Labour | -3.5 pts | -2.6 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Welton Rural | Labour | -3.5 pts | -2.6 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Hartsholme | Labour | -3.4 pts | -2.6 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham South | Independent | +4.9 pts | +4.1 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Ermine and Cathedral | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Ermine and Cathedral | Green | +1.6 pts | +1.0 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Waddington and Hykeham East | Conservative | +1.7 pts | +2.2 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Ermine and Cathedral | Conservative | +2.7 pts | +2.2 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Boston South | Conservative | +1.8 pts | +2.2 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Swallow Beck and Witham | Liberal Democrats | -0.3 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Boultham | Conservative | +2.6 pts | +2.2 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Skirbeck | Conservative | +1.9 pts | +2.2 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Grantham West | Conservative | +2.0 pts | +2.2 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Carholme | Conservative | +2.0 pts | +2.2 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Birchwood | Liberal Democrats | -0.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Boston Coastal | Independent | +4.3 pts | +4.1 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Holbeach | Labour | -2.6 pts | -2.6 pts | -0.1 pts |