Luton: wards that bucked the trend
Luton: in 2019, 29 ward results beat the expected swing and 22 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Crawley (+26.4 pts actual vs +2.7 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Crawley | Liberal Democrats | +26.4 pts | +2.7 pts | +23.6 pts |
| 2019 | Biscot | Independent | +21.9 pts | +3.8 pts | +18.1 pts |
| 2019 | Bramingham | Conservative | +9.0 pts | -8.3 pts | +17.3 pts |
| 2019 | Round Green | Liberal Democrats | +19.7 pts | +2.7 pts | +17.0 pts |
| 2019 | Wigmore | Liberal Democrats | +18.5 pts | +2.7 pts | +15.8 pts |
| 2019 | High Town | Labour | +18.4 pts | +3.2 pts | +15.3 pts |
| 2019 | Barnfield | Liberal Democrats | +17.4 pts | +2.7 pts | +14.6 pts |
| 2019 | Farley | Labour | +17.5 pts | +3.2 pts | +14.3 pts |
| 2019 | Challney | Labour | +17.2 pts | +3.2 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2019 | Sundon Park | Liberal Democrats | +16.2 pts | +2.7 pts | +13.5 pts |
| 2019 | Round Green | Conservative | -21.0 pts | -8.3 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2019 | Saints | Conservative | +2.8 pts | -8.3 pts | +11.2 pts |
| 2019 | Crawley | Labour | -7.3 pts | +3.2 pts | -10.5 pts |
| 2019 | Limbury | Labour | -7.3 pts | +3.2 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2019 | Barnfield | Labour | -6.7 pts | +3.2 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2019 | Biscot | Liberal Democrats | -6.6 pts | +2.7 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Biscot | Labour | -5.9 pts | +3.2 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2019 | Round Green | Labour | -5.5 pts | +3.2 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2019 | Wigmore | Labour | -5.2 pts | +3.2 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2019 | South | Conservative | -16.3 pts | -8.3 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2019 | Dallow | Labour | +11.0 pts | +3.2 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2019 | Stopsley | Liberal Democrats | +10.4 pts | +2.7 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2019 | Wigmore | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.5 pts | -2.1 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2019 | Stopsley | Labour | -4.0 pts | +3.2 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Sundon Park | Conservative | -14.9 pts | -8.3 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2019 | High Town | Conservative | -14.8 pts | -8.3 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2019 | Bramingham | Labour | +9.5 pts | +3.2 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2019 | Limbury | Conservative | -2.0 pts | -8.3 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2019 | Wigmore | Conservative | -14.4 pts | -8.3 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2019 | Dallow | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -8.3 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2019 | Lewsey | Labour | +9.0 pts | +3.2 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Challney | Conservative | -2.6 pts | -8.3 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Leagrave | Labour | +8.3 pts | +3.2 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2019 | South | Labour | -1.3 pts | +3.2 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Sundon Park | Labour | -1.3 pts | +3.2 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2019 | South | Green | +3.3 pts | -0.4 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Icknield | Labour | +6.5 pts | +3.2 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2019 | Barnfield | Conservative | -10.7 pts | -8.3 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Stopsley | Conservative | -6.5 pts | -8.3 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Saints | Labour | +1.4 pts | +3.2 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Farley | Conservative | -9.7 pts | -8.3 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Biscot | Conservative | -7.1 pts | -8.3 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Icknield | Conservative | -9.3 pts | -8.3 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Northwell | Conservative | -7.4 pts | -8.3 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Lewsey | Conservative | -7.6 pts | -8.3 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Lewsey | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.4 pts | -2.1 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Challney | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.4 pts | -2.1 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Icknield | Liberal Democrats | +2.8 pts | +2.7 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2019 | Leagrave | Conservative | -8.3 pts | -8.3 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2019 | Crawley | Conservative | -8.3 pts | -8.3 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2019 | Northwell | Labour | +3.2 pts | +3.2 pts | -0.0 pts |