Maldon: wards that bucked the trend
Maldon: in 2019, 12 ward results beat the expected swing and 15 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Tolleshunt D'Arcy (+39.8 pts actual vs -12.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Tolleshunt D'Arcy | Conservative | +39.8 pts | -12.2 pts | +52.0 pts |
| 2019 | Tollesbury | Conservative | +25.7 pts | -12.2 pts | +38.0 pts |
| 2019 | Burnham-on-Crouch South | Conservative | -44.0 pts | -12.2 pts | -31.8 pts |
| 2019 | Maldon South | Conservative | -38.3 pts | -12.2 pts | -26.1 pts |
| 2019 | Maldon East | Conservative | -34.3 pts | -12.2 pts | -22.1 pts |
| 2019 | Maldon West | Conservative | -34.0 pts | -12.2 pts | -21.8 pts |
| 2019 | Althorne | Independent | +14.3 pts | +32.6 pts | -18.2 pts |
| 2019 | Maldon West | Independent | +49.3 pts | +32.6 pts | +16.7 pts |
| 2019 | Maldon North | Conservative | -26.6 pts | -12.2 pts | -14.3 pts |
| 2019 | Tolleshunt D'Arcy | Labour | +9.1 pts | -4.1 pts | +13.2 pts |
| 2019 | Tollesbury | Labour | -16.4 pts | -4.1 pts | -12.4 pts |
| 2019 | Great Totham | Conservative | -0.5 pts | -12.2 pts | +11.7 pts |
| 2019 | Althorne | Conservative | -1.1 pts | -12.2 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2019 | Heybridge East | Conservative | -2.0 pts | -12.2 pts | +10.2 pts |
| 2019 | Heybridge West | Independent | +42.6 pts | +32.6 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2019 | Burnham On Crouch North | Independent | +24.8 pts | +32.6 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2019 | Southminster | Conservative | -18.1 pts | -12.2 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2019 | Burnham-on-Crouch South | Labour | -9.9 pts | -4.1 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Southminster | Independent | +38.4 pts | +32.6 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Heybridge East | Independent | +38.2 pts | +32.6 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Tillingham | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.3 pts | -6.9 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2019 | Maldon South | Independent | +30.3 pts | +32.6 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Heybridge West | Conservative | -10.8 pts | -12.2 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Burnham On Crouch North | Conservative | -13.4 pts | -12.2 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Burnham On Crouch North | Labour | -5.0 pts | -4.1 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Tillingham | Conservative | -12.6 pts | -12.2 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Wickham Bishops & Woodham | Conservative | -12.3 pts | -12.2 pts | -0.1 pts |