Mansfield: wards that bucked the trend
Mansfield: in 2019, 17 ward results beat the expected swing and 23 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Kingsway (-5.2 pts actual vs +18.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Kingsway | Conservative | -5.2 pts | +18.2 pts | -23.4 pts |
| 2019 | Bull Farm and Pleasley Hill | Labour | +9.6 pts | -12.3 pts | +21.9 pts |
| 2019 | Berry Hill | Conservative | -2.7 pts | +18.2 pts | -20.8 pts |
| 2019 | Market Warsop | Labour | -29.9 pts | -12.3 pts | -17.6 pts |
| 2019 | Yeoman Hill | Labour | +3.7 pts | -12.3 pts | +16.0 pts |
| 2019 | Netherfield | Independent | +20.0 pts | +4.5 pts | +15.5 pts |
| 2019 | Oak Tree | Labour | -27.7 pts | -12.3 pts | -15.4 pts |
| 2019 | Broomhill | Labour | +2.1 pts | -12.3 pts | +14.4 pts |
| 2019 | Sandhurst | Labour | -0.8 pts | -12.3 pts | +11.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hornby | Labour | -21.8 pts | -12.3 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2019 | Abbott | Labour | -20.7 pts | -12.3 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2019 | Berry Hill | Labour | -4.3 pts | -12.3 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Peafields | Labour | -20.1 pts | -12.3 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2019 | Oakham | Labour | -4.5 pts | -12.3 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2019 | Park Hall | Labour | -20.0 pts | -12.3 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2019 | Ling Forest | Labour | -19.3 pts | -12.3 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2019 | Grange Farm | Labour | -5.3 pts | -12.3 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2019 | Lindhurst | Labour | -5.6 pts | -12.3 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2019 | Maun Valley | Labour | -18.0 pts | -12.3 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Newlands | Labour | -18.0 pts | -12.3 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Brick Kiln | Labour | -7.1 pts | -12.3 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Oakham | Conservative | +13.0 pts | +18.2 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Kingsway | Labour | -7.3 pts | -12.3 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Woodhouse | Labour | -7.3 pts | -12.3 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Bull Farm and Pleasley Hill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -10.7 pts | -6.0 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2019 | Newgate | Labour | -16.9 pts | -12.3 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2019 | Warsop Carrs | Labour | -7.7 pts | -12.3 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Racecourse | Labour | -16.4 pts | -12.3 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Ladybrook | Labour | -8.6 pts | -12.3 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Eakring | Labour | -15.8 pts | -12.3 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Ransom Wood | Labour | -15.3 pts | -12.3 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Woodlands | Labour | -15.2 pts | -12.3 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Kings Walk | Labour | -15.0 pts | -12.3 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Meden | Labour | -9.9 pts | -12.3 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Portland | Labour | -10.0 pts | -12.3 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Holly | Labour | -14.5 pts | -12.3 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Netherfield | Labour | -10.8 pts | -12.3 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Carr Bank | Labour | -13.4 pts | -12.3 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Grange Farm | Independent | +3.5 pts | +4.5 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Penniment | Labour | -12.4 pts | -12.3 pts | -0.1 pts |