Medway: wards that bucked the trend
Medway: in 2019, 34 ward results beat the expected swing and 48 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Peninsula (+34.4 pts actual vs +8.7 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Peninsula | Independent | +34.4 pts | +8.7 pts | +25.7 pts |
| 2019 | Gillingham South | Labour | +27.1 pts | +4.3 pts | +22.9 pts |
| 2019 | Rainham North | Conservative | +20.0 pts | -1.7 pts | +21.7 pts |
| 2019 | Lordswood and Capstone | Labour | -15.0 pts | +4.3 pts | -19.2 pts |
| 2019 | Peninsula | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -29.9 pts | -13.8 pts | -16.2 pts |
| 2019 | Rainham Central | Labour | -11.9 pts | +4.3 pts | -16.2 pts |
| 2019 | Gillingham North | Labour | +19.2 pts | +4.3 pts | +14.9 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester East | Labour | +18.6 pts | +4.3 pts | +14.4 pts |
| 2019 | Strood Rural | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -27.7 pts | -13.8 pts | -14.0 pts |
| 2019 | Rainham Central | Independent | +22.5 pts | +8.7 pts | +13.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hempstead & Wigmore | Labour | -7.2 pts | +4.3 pts | -11.5 pts |
| 2019 | Watling | Conservative | -12.6 pts | -1.7 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2019 | Walderslade | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.9 pts | -13.8 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester South and Horsted | Conservative | +8.9 pts | -1.7 pts | +10.6 pts |
| 2019 | Princes Park | Conservative | +8.8 pts | -1.7 pts | +10.5 pts |
| 2019 | Gillingham North | Conservative | -11.5 pts | -1.7 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2019 | Peninsula | Conservative | -11.3 pts | -1.7 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2019 | Peninsula | Labour | -5.1 pts | +4.3 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Chatham Central | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.5 pts | -13.8 pts | +9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Gillingham North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.2 pts | -13.8 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2019 | Strood South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -22.0 pts | -13.8 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Strood North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -21.8 pts | -13.8 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester West | Labour | +12.1 pts | +4.3 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2019 | Twydall | Conservative | -9.3 pts | -1.7 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2019 | Chatham Central | Conservative | -9.3 pts | -1.7 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Twydall | Labour | -3.3 pts | +4.3 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester South and Horsted | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -21.0 pts | -13.8 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester South and Horsted | Liberal Democrats | +8.3 pts | +1.2 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2019 | Cuxton and Halling | Labour | -2.7 pts | +4.3 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2019 | Strood North | Conservative | +5.2 pts | -1.7 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2019 | Walderslade | Conservative | +5.0 pts | -1.7 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2019 | Rainham South | Labour | -2.2 pts | +4.3 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hempstead & Wigmore | Conservative | -7.6 pts | -1.7 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2019 | Twydall | Liberal Democrats | -4.6 pts | +1.2 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Rainham Central | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.5 pts | -13.8 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Luton and Wayfield | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -19.0 pts | -13.8 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester East | Conservative | -6.4 pts | -1.7 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2019 | Gillingham South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -18.4 pts | -13.8 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Cuxton and Halling | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -18.3 pts | -13.8 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Chatham Central | Labour | +8.8 pts | +4.3 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Rainham South | Conservative | +2.8 pts | -1.7 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester West | Green | -2.0 pts | +2.0 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -17.6 pts | -13.8 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Strood Rural | Conservative | +2.1 pts | -1.7 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Rainham North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -17.2 pts | -13.8 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Rainham South | Independent | +5.5 pts | +8.7 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Strood Rural | Labour | +1.1 pts | +4.3 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Gillingham South | Conservative | -4.8 pts | -1.7 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Watling | Labour | +7.3 pts | +4.3 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Luton and Wayfield | Labour | +7.1 pts | +4.3 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester West | Liberal Democrats | +3.9 pts | +1.2 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Chatham Central | Independent | +6.4 pts | +8.7 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2019 | River | Conservative | -3.9 pts | -1.7 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Rainham South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.5 pts | -13.8 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Strood South | Conservative | +0.5 pts | -1.7 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Gillingham North | Liberal Democrats | -0.8 pts | +1.2 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Rainham North | Labour | +6.3 pts | +4.3 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.7 pts | -13.8 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Gillingham North | Green | +0.2 pts | +2.0 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Watling | Green | +0.3 pts | +2.0 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester South and Horsted | Labour | +2.7 pts | +4.3 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Luton and Wayfield | Conservative | -3.1 pts | -1.7 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Watling | Liberal Democrats | -0.0 pts | +1.2 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | River | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.5 pts | -13.8 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Rainham Central | Green | +0.7 pts | +2.0 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Strood Rural | Liberal Democrats | +0.1 pts | +1.2 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Princes Park | Labour | +5.3 pts | +4.3 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Strood North | Green | +1.0 pts | +2.0 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Twydall | Green | +1.1 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Strood South | Labour | +5.1 pts | +4.3 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Strood North | Labour | +3.6 pts | +4.3 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2019 | River | Green | +2.6 pts | +2.0 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester East | Green | +2.6 pts | +2.0 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2019 | River | Labour | +4.8 pts | +4.3 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Walderslade | Labour | +3.8 pts | +4.3 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Princes Park | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -13.3 pts | -13.8 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Lordswood and Capstone | Conservative | -1.3 pts | -1.7 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2019 | Gillingham South | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | +1.2 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester South and Horsted | Green | +1.7 pts | +2.0 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Rochester West | Conservative | -1.9 pts | -1.7 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2019 | Rainham Central | Conservative | -1.6 pts | -1.7 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2019 | Cuxton and Halling | Conservative | -1.7 pts | -1.7 pts | -0.0 pts |