Mid Devon: wards that bucked the trend
Mid Devon: in 2019, 24 ward results beat the expected swing and 22 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Cullompton South (-42.9 pts actual vs -4.9 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Cullompton South | Independent | -42.9 pts | -4.9 pts | -38.0 pts |
| 2019 | Cadbury | Independent | +23.2 pts | -4.9 pts | +28.1 pts |
| 2019 | Westexe | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -27.0 pts | -2.0 pts | -25.0 pts |
| 2019 | Cullompton North | Conservative | -33.7 pts | -10.2 pts | -23.5 pts |
| 2019 | Cullompton North | Independent | +17.1 pts | -4.9 pts | +21.9 pts |
| 2019 | Bradninch | Conservative | -30.0 pts | -10.2 pts | -19.9 pts |
| 2019 | Sandford & Creedy | Green | +17.8 pts | -0.5 pts | +18.3 pts |
| 2019 | Canonsleigh | Conservative | -27.0 pts | -10.2 pts | -16.9 pts |
| 2019 | Westexe | Independent | +11.6 pts | -4.9 pts | +16.5 pts |
| 2019 | Sandford & Creedy | Conservative | +6.2 pts | -10.2 pts | +16.3 pts |
| 2019 | Cadbury | Conservative | +5.5 pts | -10.2 pts | +15.7 pts |
| 2019 | Westexe | Conservative | +4.1 pts | -10.2 pts | +14.3 pts |
| 2019 | Cullompton South | Conservative | +3.8 pts | -10.2 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2019 | Clare & Shuttern | Conservative | -22.9 pts | -10.2 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Labour | -15.3 pts | -2.9 pts | -12.4 pts |
| 2019 | Halberton | Green | -10.7 pts | -0.5 pts | -10.2 pts |
| 2019 | Taw Vale | Conservative | -0.4 pts | -10.2 pts | +9.8 pts |
| 2019 | Taw Vale | Green | +9.2 pts | -0.5 pts | +9.7 pts |
| 2019 | Bradninch | Liberal Democrats | +30.0 pts | +20.8 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2019 | Upper Culm | Conservative | -1.7 pts | -10.2 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2019 | Way | Conservative | -18.2 pts | -10.2 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Conservative | -18.2 pts | -10.2 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Lowman | Labour | -10.8 pts | -2.9 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2019 | Halberton | Conservative | -17.9 pts | -10.2 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2019 | Boniface | Liberal Democrats | +13.4 pts | +20.8 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2019 | Clare & Shuttern | Independent | -11.5 pts | -4.9 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2019 | Westexe | Labour | +3.5 pts | -2.9 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2019 | Lowman | Conservative | -16.5 pts | -10.2 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2019 | Silverton | Conservative | -4.0 pts | -10.2 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2019 | Cullompton Outer | Conservative | -15.8 pts | -10.2 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Cranmore | Labour | +2.2 pts | -2.9 pts | +5.1 pts |
| 2019 | Cranmore | Conservative | -5.3 pts | -10.2 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Lowman | Independent | -1.1 pts | -4.9 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Lawrence | Conservative | -7.0 pts | -10.2 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Lawrence | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +1.0 pts | -2.0 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Newbrooke | Conservative | -13.1 pts | -10.2 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Cullompton Outer | Independent | -7.5 pts | -4.9 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Canonsleigh | Green | -2.8 pts | -0.5 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Castle | Liberal Democrats | +22.9 pts | +20.8 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Yeo | Conservative | -8.9 pts | -10.2 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Yeo | Liberal Democrats | +19.7 pts | +20.8 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Lowman | Green | +0.5 pts | -0.5 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Westexe | Green | +0.4 pts | -0.5 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Boniface | Conservative | -9.4 pts | -10.2 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Lawrence | Liberal Democrats | +20.7 pts | +20.8 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2019 | Boniface | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.1 pts | -2.0 pts | -0.1 pts |