Middlesbrough: wards that bucked the trend
Middlesbrough: in 2023, 28 ward results beat the expected swing and 38 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Coulby Newham (-24.4 pts actual vs +10.1 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Coulby Newham | Labour | -24.4 pts | +10.1 pts | -34.5 pts |
| 2023 | Ladgate | Labour | -19.9 pts | +10.1 pts | -30.0 pts |
| 2023 | Stainton & Thornton | Conservative | -26.4 pts | +3.5 pts | -29.9 pts |
| 2023 | Brambles & Thorntree | Independent | +13.9 pts | -13.3 pts | +27.2 pts |
| 2023 | Marton West | Independent | -40.1 pts | -13.3 pts | -26.8 pts |
| 2023 | Marton West | Conservative | +27.7 pts | +3.5 pts | +24.2 pts |
| 2023 | Ladgate | Conservative | -17.5 pts | +3.5 pts | -21.0 pts |
| 2023 | NUNTHORPE | Labour | +31.0 pts | +10.1 pts | +20.9 pts |
| 2023 | NUNTHORPE | Independent | -32.0 pts | -13.3 pts | -18.8 pts |
| 2023 | Park | Independent | +4.6 pts | -13.3 pts | +17.9 pts |
| 2023 | Linthorpe | Labour | +25.9 pts | +10.1 pts | +15.8 pts |
| 2023 | Kader | Labour | -5.4 pts | +10.1 pts | -15.5 pts |
| 2023 | Trimdon | Labour | +24.7 pts | +10.1 pts | +14.6 pts |
| 2023 | Trimdon | Independent | -27.1 pts | -13.3 pts | -13.8 pts |
| 2023 | Central | Labour | +23.4 pts | +10.1 pts | +13.3 pts |
| 2023 | Acklam | Liberal Democrats | +16.9 pts | +3.6 pts | +13.3 pts |
| 2023 | Longlands & Beechwood | Independent | -0.1 pts | -13.3 pts | +13.2 pts |
| 2023 | Ayresome | Labour | +22.5 pts | +10.1 pts | +12.4 pts |
| 2023 | Ayresome | Independent | -25.0 pts | -13.3 pts | -11.8 pts |
| 2023 | Park End & Beckfield | Independent | -24.6 pts | -13.3 pts | -11.3 pts |
| 2023 | NUNTHORPE | Conservative | -7.7 pts | +3.5 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2023 | Acklam | Conservative | -7.6 pts | +3.5 pts | -11.0 pts |
| 2023 | Park End & Beckfield | Labour | +21.0 pts | +10.1 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2023 | Berwick Hills & Pallister | Labour | +20.9 pts | +10.1 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2023 | Acklam | Labour | +0.1 pts | +10.1 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2023 | Acklam | Independent | -3.5 pts | -13.3 pts | +9.8 pts |
| 2023 | Linthorpe | Independent | -22.3 pts | -13.3 pts | -9.0 pts |
| 2023 | Park | Green | -10.3 pts | -1.6 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2023 | Kader | Independent | -4.6 pts | -13.3 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2023 | Marton East | Independent | -20.9 pts | -13.3 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2023 | Berwick Hills & Pallister | Independent | -20.7 pts | -13.3 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2023 | Central | Independent | -6.4 pts | -13.3 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2023 | Longlands & Beechwood | Labour | +3.9 pts | +10.1 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2023 | Park | Conservative | -2.6 pts | +3.5 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2023 | Newport | Labour | +16.0 pts | +10.1 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2023 | Hemlington | Labour | +16.0 pts | +10.1 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2023 | Newport | Liberal Democrats | -1.9 pts | +3.6 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2023 | NUNTHORPE | Liberal Democrats | +8.8 pts | +3.6 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2023 | Hemlington | Independent | -18.3 pts | -13.3 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2023 | Park | Labour | +6.1 pts | +10.1 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2023 | Kader | Conservative | +7.3 pts | +3.5 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2023 | Marton West | Labour | +6.3 pts | +10.1 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2023 | Marton East | Conservative | +7.2 pts | +3.5 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2023 | Berwick Hills & Pallister | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +3.5 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2023 | Newport | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +3.5 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2023 | Ayresome | Conservative | +7.0 pts | +3.5 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2023 | Linthorpe | Liberal Democrats | +0.5 pts | +3.6 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2023 | Coulby Newham | Conservative | +0.5 pts | +3.5 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2023 | Central | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | +3.6 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2023 | Brambles & Thorntree | Conservative | +0.8 pts | +3.5 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2023 | Newport | Independent | -11.0 pts | -13.3 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2023 | North Ormesby | Labour | +12.2 pts | +10.1 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2023 | Trimdon | Conservative | +5.5 pts | +3.5 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2023 | Central | Green | +0.2 pts | -1.6 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2023 | North Ormesby | Conservative | +1.8 pts | +3.5 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2023 | Newport | Green | -2.9 pts | -1.6 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2023 | Hemlington | Conservative | +2.3 pts | +3.5 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2023 | Ayresome | Liberal Democrats | +2.7 pts | +3.6 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2023 | Kader | Liberal Democrats | +2.7 pts | +3.6 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2023 | Marton East | Labour | +9.3 pts | +10.1 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2023 | North Ormesby | Independent | -14.0 pts | -13.3 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2023 | Brambles & Thorntree | Labour | +10.7 pts | +10.1 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Central | Conservative | +3.0 pts | +3.5 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2023 | Linthorpe | Conservative | +3.2 pts | +3.5 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2023 | Longlands & Beechwood | Conservative | +3.7 pts | +3.5 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2023 | Park End & Beckfield | Conservative | +3.6 pts | +3.5 pts | +0.1 pts |