Mole Valley: wards that bucked the trend
Mole Valley: in 2024, 23 ward results beat the expected swing and 26 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Ashtead Park (-19.0 pts actual vs -1.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Ashtead Park | Independent | -19.0 pts | -1.4 pts | -17.6 pts |
| 2024 | Dorking North | Liberal Democrats | -19.3 pts | -3.3 pts | -16.0 pts |
| 2024 | Dorking North | Labour | +18.0 pts | +6.4 pts | +11.6 pts |
| 2024 | Ashtead Park | Liberal Democrats | +8.1 pts | -3.3 pts | +11.4 pts |
| 2024 | Brockham, Betchworth, Buckland, Box Hill and Headley | Conservative | -10.0 pts | +0.2 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2024 | Dorking South | Green | -10.9 pts | -1.1 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2024 | Ashtead Lanes and Common | Ashtead Independents | -10.1 pts | -1.0 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2024 | Brockham, Betchworth, Buckland, Box Hill and Headley | Green | +6.9 pts | -1.1 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2024 | Leatherhead North | Liberal Democrats | -10.8 pts | -3.3 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2024 | Capel, Leigh, Newdigate and Charlwood | Green | -8.0 pts | -1.1 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2024 | Ashtead Park | Conservative | +6.3 pts | +0.2 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2024 | Bookham East and Eastwick Park | Labour | +0.3 pts | +6.4 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2024 | Capel, Leigh, Newdigate and Charlwood | Liberal Democrats | +2.6 pts | -3.3 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2024 | Dorking North | Conservative | +5.8 pts | +0.2 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2024 | Dorking South | Liberal Democrats | +2.3 pts | -3.3 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2024 | Mickleham, Westcott and Okewood | Liberal Democrats | +2.1 pts | -3.3 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2024 | Mickleham, Westcott and Okewood | Conservative | -5.1 pts | +0.2 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2024 | Bookham East and Eastwick Park | Liberal Democrats | +1.7 pts | -3.3 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2024 | Fetcham | Labour | +1.8 pts | +6.4 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2024 | Bookham East and Eastwick Park | Conservative | -4.2 pts | +0.2 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2024 | Bookham West | Conservative | -3.4 pts | +0.2 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2024 | Bookham West | Green | +2.5 pts | -1.1 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2024 | Holmwoods and Beare Green | Liberal Democrats | -6.8 pts | -3.3 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2024 | Dorking North | Green | -4.5 pts | -1.1 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Holmwoods and Beare Green | Labour | +3.0 pts | +6.4 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2024 | Holmwoods and Beare Green | Conservative | -3.1 pts | +0.2 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2024 | Leatherhead South | Conservative | -3.1 pts | +0.2 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2024 | Ashtead Lanes and Common | Labour | +3.2 pts | +6.4 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2024 | Bookham East and Eastwick Park | Green | +2.1 pts | -1.1 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2024 | Ashtead Park | Ashtead Independents | +2.0 pts | -1.0 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2024 | Capel, Leigh, Newdigate and Charlwood | Conservative | +2.6 pts | +0.2 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Ashtead Lanes and Common | Conservative | +2.6 pts | +0.2 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2024 | Ashtead Lanes and Common | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -3.3 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2024 | Holmwoods and Beare Green | Green | -3.3 pts | -1.1 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2024 | Leatherhead South | Liberal Democrats | -1.3 pts | -3.3 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2024 | Ashtead Park | Labour | +4.4 pts | +6.4 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2024 | Fetcham | Green | +0.9 pts | -1.1 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2024 | Fetcham | Liberal Democrats | -1.7 pts | -3.3 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2024 | Dorking South | Labour | +7.9 pts | +6.4 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2024 | Fetcham | Conservative | -1.0 pts | +0.2 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2024 | Leatherhead North | Conservative | +1.0 pts | +0.2 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2024 | Ashtead Park | Green | -1.8 pts | -1.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2024 | Bookham West | Liberal Democrats | -4.0 pts | -3.3 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2024 | Brockham, Betchworth, Buckland, Box Hill and Headley | Liberal Democrats | -2.8 pts | -3.3 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2024 | Dorking South | Conservative | +0.7 pts | +0.2 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2024 | Leatherhead South | Green | -1.6 pts | -1.1 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2024 | Brockham, Betchworth, Buckland, Box Hill and Headley | Labour | +5.9 pts | +6.4 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2024 | Mickleham, Westcott and Okewood | Green | -0.7 pts | -1.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2024 | Leatherhead North | Green | -1.2 pts | -1.1 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2018 | Fetcham West | Conservative | -12.4 pts | +0.1 pts | -12.5 pts |
| 2018 | Leatherhead South | Conservative | +10.6 pts | +0.1 pts | +10.6 pts |
| 2018 | ASHTEAD VILLAGE | Conservative | -10.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2018 | Bookham South | Conservative | -9.5 pts | +0.1 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2018 | Fetcham West | Liberal Democrats | +20.2 pts | +11.9 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2018 | HOLMWOODS | Liberal Democrats | +4.2 pts | +11.9 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2018 | Bookham South | Liberal Democrats | +19.1 pts | +11.9 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2018 | Dorking South | Conservative | -6.7 pts | +0.1 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2018 | Leatherhead North | Liberal Democrats | +6.8 pts | +11.9 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2018 | HOLMWOODS | Conservative | +4.8 pts | +0.1 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2018 | FETCHAM EAST | Conservative | +4.3 pts | +0.1 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Dorking South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.2 pts | -6.5 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Leatherhead North | Conservative | +4.3 pts | +0.1 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2018 | Ashtead Park | Labour | -2.9 pts | +1.2 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2018 | Dorking North | Liberal Democrats | +7.8 pts | +11.9 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2018 | Dorking North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.5 pts | -6.5 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2018 | BOOKHAM NORTH | Conservative | +3.6 pts | +0.1 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2018 | Leatherhead South | Green | +1.5 pts | -1.8 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2018 | Dorking North | Conservative | -3.0 pts | +0.1 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2018 | Leatherhead North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.5 pts | -6.5 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2018 | ASHTEAD COMMON | Labour | +4.2 pts | +1.2 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2018 | Fetcham West | Labour | -1.7 pts | +1.2 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2018 | BOOKHAM NORTH | Liberal Democrats | +9.0 pts | +11.9 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2018 | Dorking South | Labour | -1.4 pts | +1.2 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2018 | ASHTEAD COMMON | Conservative | -2.6 pts | +0.1 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2018 | FETCHAM EAST | Green | -4.2 pts | -1.8 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2018 | ASHTEAD COMMON | Green | -4.1 pts | -1.8 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2018 | Fetcham West | Green | +0.4 pts | -1.8 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Leatherhead North | Labour | -1.0 pts | +1.2 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2018 | HOLMWOODS | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.6 pts | -6.5 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2018 | BOOKHAM NORTH | Green | -3.9 pts | -1.8 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2018 | Ashtead Park | Green | +0.2 pts | -1.8 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2018 | ASHTEAD VILLAGE | Green | -0.3 pts | -1.8 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2018 | Leatherhead North | Green | -0.6 pts | -1.8 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2018 | Dorking North | Green | -2.8 pts | -1.8 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2018 | FETCHAM EAST | Liberal Democrats | +10.8 pts | +11.9 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2018 | ASHTEAD VILLAGE | Labour | +0.3 pts | +1.2 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2018 | Bookham South | Green | -2.7 pts | -1.8 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2018 | Dorking North | Labour | +0.6 pts | +1.2 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2018 | HOLMWOODS | Green | -1.3 pts | -1.8 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Dorking South | Green | -1.4 pts | -1.8 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2018 | HOLMWOODS | Labour | +0.9 pts | +1.2 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2018 | Dorking South | Liberal Democrats | +11.7 pts | +11.9 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2018 | Ashtead Park | Conservative | -0.1 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.1 pts |