New Forest: wards that bucked the trend
New Forest: in 2019, 39 ward results beat the expected swing and 28 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Totton South (+33.9 pts actual vs +10.7 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Totton South | Liberal Democrats | +33.9 pts | +10.7 pts | +23.2 pts |
| 2019 | Bashley | Conservative | +21.8 pts | +0.2 pts | +21.7 pts |
| 2019 | Ringwood South | Labour | +22.6 pts | +1.8 pts | +20.9 pts |
| 2019 | Holbury and North Blackfield | Labour | +21.9 pts | +1.8 pts | +20.2 pts |
| 2019 | Totton East | Liberal Democrats | +29.7 pts | +10.7 pts | +18.9 pts |
| 2019 | Downlands and Forest | Conservative | -17.7 pts | +0.2 pts | -17.9 pts |
| 2019 | Fordingbridge | Conservative | -17.2 pts | +0.2 pts | -17.4 pts |
| 2019 | Totton North | Conservative | +17.1 pts | +0.2 pts | +16.9 pts |
| 2019 | Downlands and Forest | Labour | -14.3 pts | +1.8 pts | -16.1 pts |
| 2019 | Ringwood North | Labour | +17.8 pts | +1.8 pts | +16.0 pts |
| 2019 | Butts Ash and Dibden Purlieu | Liberal Democrats | +26.3 pts | +10.7 pts | +15.6 pts |
| 2019 | Holbury and North Blackfield | Conservative | +14.9 pts | +0.2 pts | +14.8 pts |
| 2019 | Totton West | Labour | +16.1 pts | +1.8 pts | +14.4 pts |
| 2019 | Hythe West and Langdown | Conservative | -14.1 pts | +0.2 pts | -14.3 pts |
| 2019 | Fawley, Blackfield and Langley | Liberal Democrats | +24.4 pts | +10.7 pts | +13.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hordle | Conservative | +13.4 pts | +0.2 pts | +13.3 pts |
| 2019 | Lymington Town | Labour | +15.0 pts | +1.8 pts | +13.2 pts |
| 2019 | Fernhill | Labour | +14.9 pts | +1.8 pts | +13.1 pts |
| 2019 | Pennington | Conservative | -12.6 pts | +0.2 pts | -12.8 pts |
| 2019 | Boldre and Sway | Green | +11.0 pts | -1.6 pts | +12.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hythe West and Langdown | Liberal Democrats | +22.9 pts | +10.7 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2019 | Boldre and Sway | Conservative | -11.0 pts | +0.2 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2019 | Buckland | Conservative | -10.8 pts | +0.2 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2019 | Lymington Town | Independent | -10.0 pts | +0.8 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2019 | Brockenhurst and Forest South East | Conservative | -9.2 pts | +0.2 pts | -9.4 pts |
| 2019 | Becton | Liberal Democrats | +1.4 pts | +10.7 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Ashurst, Copythorne South and Netley Marsh | Conservative | +9.0 pts | +0.2 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2019 | Dibden and Hythe East | Liberal Democrats | +19.1 pts | +10.7 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2019 | Totton Central | Labour | +10.1 pts | +1.8 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Milton | Liberal Democrats | +4.2 pts | +10.7 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2019 | Buckland | Independent | +7.1 pts | +0.8 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2019 | Ringwood North | Conservative | +6.5 pts | +0.2 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2019 | Bransgore and Burley | Labour | +7.8 pts | +1.8 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2019 | Totton North | Liberal Democrats | +16.7 pts | +10.7 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2019 | Marchwood | Liberal Democrats | +16.6 pts | +10.7 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2019 | Bransgore and Burley | Conservative | +5.9 pts | +0.2 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Fernhill | Conservative | +5.9 pts | +0.2 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Butts Ash and Dibden Purlieu | Conservative | -5.4 pts | +0.2 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Brockenhurst and Forest South East | Green | +4.0 pts | -1.6 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Marchwood | Conservative | +5.4 pts | +0.2 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Lymington Town | Conservative | -5.0 pts | +0.2 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Buckland | Labour | -3.3 pts | +1.8 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2019 | Lyndhurst | Conservative | +4.9 pts | +0.2 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2019 | Fawley, Blackfield and Langley | Conservative | +4.8 pts | +0.2 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2019 | Milford | Conservative | -4.1 pts | +0.2 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Brockenhurst and Forest South East | Labour | -2.2 pts | +1.8 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Buckland | Liberal Democrats | +7.0 pts | +10.7 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2019 | Milton | Labour | -1.9 pts | +1.8 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hordle | Labour | -1.7 pts | +1.8 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Ringwood South | Conservative | -3.3 pts | +0.2 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Totton West | Conservative | +3.5 pts | +0.2 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Bashley | Labour | -1.6 pts | +1.8 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2019 | Pennington | Liberal Democrats | +13.8 pts | +10.7 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2019 | Pennington | Labour | -1.2 pts | +1.8 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Becton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -9.1 pts | -12.0 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Totton East | Conservative | +3.1 pts | +0.2 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Barton | Conservative | +3.1 pts | +0.2 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Fordingbridge | Labour | -0.9 pts | +1.8 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Milton | Conservative | -2.3 pts | +0.2 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Totton Central | Conservative | +2.5 pts | +0.2 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Milford | Labour | +4.1 pts | +1.8 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Totton South | Conservative | -1.9 pts | +0.2 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Furzedown and Hardley | Liberal Democrats | +12.6 pts | +10.7 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Becton | Conservative | -0.9 pts | +0.2 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Dibden and Hythe East | Conservative | -0.4 pts | +0.2 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hordle | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.8 pts | -12.0 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Furzedown and Hardley | Conservative | +0.1 pts | +0.2 pts | -0.1 pts |