Psephology.AI

    Norfolk: wards that bucked the trend

    Norfolk: in 2021, 132 ward results beat the expected swing and 128 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Sewell (-29.3 pts actual vs -2.3 pts expected).

    Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

    Norfolk: ward results against the expected swing
    YearWardPartyActual swingExpected swingGap
    2021SewellLabour-29.3 pts-2.3 pts-27.0 pts
    2021SewellGreen+33.2 pts+6.3 pts+26.9 pts
    2021MundesleyIndependent+30.4 pts+3.5 pts+26.9 pts
    2021DockingConservative-24.9 pts-0.4 pts-24.5 pts
    2021Drayton and HorsfordLiberal Democrats+19.3 pts-2.3 pts+21.6 pts
    2021MancroftGreen+27.7 pts+6.3 pts+21.4 pts
    2021West DepwadeConservative-21.7 pts-0.4 pts-21.3 pts
    2021LoddonLabour+18.6 pts-2.3 pts+20.9 pts
    2021Gayton and Nar ValleyConservative-20.9 pts-0.4 pts-20.5 pts
    2021North CoastLiberal Democrats+17.9 pts-2.3 pts+20.2 pts
    2021Necton and LaunditchConservative-19.0 pts-0.4 pts-18.6 pts
    2021East FleggConservative+18.0 pts-0.4 pts+18.4 pts
    2021Caister-on-SeaConservative+17.1 pts-0.4 pts+17.5 pts
    2021Freebridge LynnGreen-10.8 pts+6.3 pts-17.0 pts
    2021South SmallburghConservative+16.5 pts-0.4 pts+16.9 pts
    2021Yarmouth North and CentralUK Independence Party (UKIP)-22.3 pts-5.7 pts-16.6 pts
    2021Freebridge LynnConservative+16.2 pts-0.4 pts+16.5 pts
    2021BreydonConservative+15.8 pts-0.4 pts+16.1 pts
    2021North Walsham West and ErpinghamLabour-18.3 pts-2.3 pts-16.0 pts
    2021South SmallburghLiberal Democrats-18.1 pts-2.3 pts-15.8 pts
    2021LothinglandConservative+15.2 pts-0.4 pts+15.5 pts
    2021Yarmouth Nelson and SouthtownConservative+15.1 pts-0.4 pts+15.4 pts
    2021North Walsham EastConservative+14.9 pts-0.4 pts+15.2 pts
    2021GuiltcrossConservative-15.4 pts-0.4 pts-15.0 pts
    2021Drayton and HorsfordConservative-15.2 pts-0.4 pts-14.8 pts
    2021Hevingham and SpixworthLiberal Democrats+11.9 pts-2.3 pts+14.2 pts
    2021Yarmouth North and CentralConservative+13.4 pts-0.4 pts+13.8 pts
    2021MundesleyConservative-13.6 pts-0.4 pts-13.2 pts
    2021EatonLabour+10.7 pts-2.3 pts+13.0 pts
    2021LakenhamConservative+12.7 pts-0.4 pts+13.0 pts
    2021TaverhamLiberal Democrats+10.7 pts-2.3 pts+13.0 pts
    2021Marshland NorthConservative-13.1 pts-0.4 pts-12.7 pts
    2021CromerLiberal Democrats+9.8 pts-2.3 pts+12.1 pts
    2021WymondhamLiberal Democrats+9.7 pts-2.3 pts+12.1 pts
    2021Dereham SouthLabour+9.5 pts-2.3 pts+11.8 pts
    2021ReephamLabour-14.1 pts-2.3 pts-11.8 pts
    2021Gorleston St AndrewsConservative+10.8 pts-0.4 pts+11.1 pts
    2021MancroftLabour-13.3 pts-2.3 pts-11.0 pts
    2021Gaywood North and CentralConservative+10.4 pts-0.4 pts+10.8 pts
    2021HumbleyardLiberal Democrats-13.1 pts-2.3 pts-10.8 pts
    2021MagdalenConservative+10.2 pts-0.4 pts+10.6 pts
    2021Caister-on-SeaLabour+8.2 pts-2.3 pts+10.5 pts
    2021Gaywood SouthConservative+9.6 pts-0.4 pts+9.9 pts
    2021HensteadConservative-10.2 pts-0.4 pts-9.8 pts
    2021Downham MarketLiberal Democrats+7.4 pts-2.3 pts+9.7 pts
    2021SwaffhamConservative+9.2 pts-0.4 pts+9.6 pts
    2021Dereham NorthConservative+9.2 pts-0.4 pts+9.5 pts
    2021North Walsham West and ErpinghamLiberal Democrats+7.2 pts-2.3 pts+9.5 pts
    2021North Walsham West and ErpinghamConservative+9.1 pts-0.4 pts+9.5 pts
    2021King's Lynn North and CentralLabour-11.7 pts-2.3 pts-9.4 pts
    2021WymondhamConservative-9.6 pts-0.4 pts-9.2 pts
    2021Thorpe St AndrewConservative-9.3 pts-0.4 pts-9.0 pts
    2021CromeConservative+8.5 pts-0.4 pts+8.9 pts
    2021LoddonConservative-9.3 pts-0.4 pts-8.9 pts
    2021WattonConservative-9.0 pts-0.4 pts-8.6 pts
    2021MundesleyLiberal Democrats-10.8 pts-2.3 pts-8.5 pts
    2021North Walsham EastLiberal Democrats-10.6 pts-2.3 pts-8.3 pts
    2021DockingLabour+6.0 pts-2.3 pts+8.3 pts
    2021Caister-on-SeaGreen-2.0 pts+6.3 pts-8.3 pts
    2021WensumGreen-1.9 pts+6.3 pts-8.2 pts
    2021HoltConservative+7.8 pts-0.4 pts+8.1 pts
    2021Melton ConstableConservative+7.7 pts-0.4 pts+8.1 pts
    2021WattonLiberal Democrats+5.6 pts-2.3 pts+8.0 pts
    2021Long StrattonLiberal Democrats-10.3 pts-2.3 pts-8.0 pts
    2021Necton and LaunditchLabour-10.2 pts-2.3 pts-7.9 pts
    2021LakenhamLabour+5.6 pts-2.3 pts+7.9 pts
    2021ForehoeLiberal Democrats-10.0 pts-2.3 pts-7.7 pts
    2021Thetford WestLabour+5.4 pts-2.3 pts+7.7 pts
    2021SprowstonLabour+5.3 pts-2.3 pts+7.6 pts
    2021WroxhamLiberal Democrats-9.9 pts-2.3 pts-7.5 pts
    2021King's Lynn North and CentralConservative+7.1 pts-0.4 pts+7.5 pts
    2021Hoveton and StalhamLiberal Democrats-9.7 pts-2.3 pts-7.4 pts
    2021TaverhamConservative-7.7 pts-0.4 pts-7.3 pts
    2021AttleboroughLiberal Democrats+4.9 pts-2.3 pts+7.2 pts
    2021LoddonLiberal Democrats-9.3 pts-2.3 pts-7.0 pts
    2021HensteadLiberal Democrats+4.7 pts-2.3 pts+7.0 pts
    2021Dereham NorthLiberal Democrats+4.6 pts-2.3 pts+7.0 pts
    2021WroxhamLabour+4.6 pts-2.3 pts+6.9 pts
    2021Downham MarketConservative-7.3 pts-0.4 pts-6.9 pts
    2021HumbleyardConservative-7.3 pts-0.4 pts-6.9 pts
    2021CostesseyLabour+4.5 pts-2.3 pts+6.8 pts
    2021Freebridge LynnLabour+4.5 pts-2.3 pts+6.7 pts
    2021Yare and All SaintsLiberal Democrats-9.1 pts-2.3 pts-6.7 pts
    2021BowthorpeLabour+4.3 pts-2.3 pts+6.6 pts
    2021Old CattonLabour+4.3 pts-2.3 pts+6.6 pts
    2021Clenchwarton and King's Lynn SouthConservative+6.2 pts-0.4 pts+6.6 pts
    2021Elmham and MattishallConservative-6.8 pts-0.4 pts-6.5 pts
    2021FeltwellLabour-8.7 pts-2.3 pts-6.4 pts
    2021WensumConservative+6.0 pts-0.4 pts+6.4 pts
    2021Mile CrossConservative+5.9 pts-0.4 pts+6.3 pts
    2021West DepwadeLiberal Democrats-8.6 pts-2.3 pts-6.2 pts
    2021HinghamConservative-6.6 pts-0.4 pts-6.2 pts
    2021AcleLabour-8.5 pts-2.3 pts-6.2 pts
    2021Old CattonLiberal Democrats-8.4 pts-2.3 pts-6.1 pts
    2021West FleggConservative+5.7 pts-0.4 pts+6.1 pts
    2021DersinghamLabour-8.3 pts-2.3 pts-6.0 pts
    2021WoodsideLabour+3.7 pts-2.3 pts+6.0 pts
    2021ReephamLiberal Democrats+3.6 pts-2.3 pts+5.9 pts
    2021Thorpe St AndrewLiberal Democrats-8.0 pts-2.3 pts-5.7 pts
    2021CromerConservative-6.1 pts-0.4 pts-5.7 pts
    2021East DepwadeLiberal Democrats-7.9 pts-2.3 pts-5.6 pts
    2021Hoveton and StalhamConservative+5.2 pts-0.4 pts+5.6 pts
    2021ReephamConservative+5.1 pts-0.4 pts+5.5 pts
    2021HoltLiberal Democrats-7.8 pts-2.3 pts-5.5 pts
    2021SheringhamConservative+5.1 pts-0.4 pts+5.4 pts
    2021Diss and RoydonLiberal Democrats-7.7 pts-2.3 pts-5.4 pts
    2021Gayton and Nar ValleyLabour-7.5 pts-2.3 pts-5.2 pts
    2021The BrecksGreen+1.1 pts+6.3 pts-5.2 pts
    2021Hevingham and SpixworthConservative-5.5 pts-0.4 pts-5.1 pts
    2021WensumLabour+2.8 pts-2.3 pts+5.1 pts
    2021Thetford EastUK Independence Party (UKIP)-10.8 pts-5.7 pts-5.1 pts
    2021Old CattonConservative-5.4 pts-0.4 pts-5.0 pts
    2021EatonLiberal Democrats-7.2 pts-2.3 pts-4.9 pts
    2021Yare and All SaintsConservative-5.2 pts-0.4 pts-4.9 pts
    2021Diss and RoydonLabour+2.5 pts-2.3 pts+4.8 pts
    2021UniversityLabour-7.1 pts-2.3 pts-4.8 pts
    2021AcleLiberal Democrats+2.4 pts-2.3 pts+4.8 pts
    2021CostesseyLiberal Democrats-7.0 pts-2.3 pts-4.7 pts
    2021ClaveringLiberal Democrats-6.9 pts-2.3 pts-4.6 pts
    2021Hoveton and StalhamGreen+1.7 pts+6.3 pts-4.6 pts
    2021Long StrattonLabour+2.3 pts-2.3 pts+4.6 pts
    2021EatonConservative-4.9 pts-0.4 pts-4.6 pts
    2021WymondhamLabour-6.8 pts-2.3 pts-4.5 pts
    2021NelsonGreen+10.7 pts+6.3 pts+4.5 pts
    2021Yare and All SaintsLabour+2.2 pts-2.3 pts+4.5 pts
    2021Catton GroveLabour+2.2 pts-2.3 pts+4.5 pts
    2021Town CloseLabour+2.0 pts-2.3 pts+4.3 pts
    2021WoodsideConservative-4.7 pts-0.4 pts-4.3 pts
    2021North CoastConservative-4.6 pts-0.4 pts-4.3 pts
    2021Yarmouth Nelson and SouthtownLabour+1.9 pts-2.3 pts+4.2 pts
    2021AylshamLabour-6.5 pts-2.3 pts-4.2 pts
    2021GuiltcrossLabour+1.9 pts-2.3 pts+4.2 pts
    2021East DepwadeConservative-4.6 pts-0.4 pts-4.2 pts
    2021SwaffhamLabour+1.9 pts-2.3 pts+4.2 pts
    2021CromerGreen+2.1 pts+6.3 pts-4.2 pts
    2021Dereham NorthLabour-6.5 pts-2.3 pts-4.2 pts
    2021HinghamLiberal Democrats-6.5 pts-2.3 pts-4.2 pts
    2021Blofield and BrundallLabour+1.9 pts-2.3 pts+4.2 pts
    2021CostesseyGreen+2.1 pts+6.3 pts-4.1 pts
    2021WroxhamConservative+3.7 pts-0.4 pts+4.1 pts
    2021Melton ConstableLiberal Democrats+1.7 pts-2.3 pts+4.1 pts
    2021Thorpe HamletLabour+1.8 pts-2.3 pts+4.1 pts
    2021Thetford EastConservative+3.6 pts-0.4 pts+4.0 pts
    2021The BrecksLabour+1.6 pts-2.3 pts+3.9 pts
    2021Elmham and MattishallLabour-6.2 pts-2.3 pts-3.9 pts
    2021LakenhamLiberal Democrats+1.5 pts-2.3 pts+3.8 pts
    2021Blofield and BrundallGreen+10.0 pts+6.3 pts+3.7 pts
    2021UniversityConservative+3.4 pts-0.4 pts+3.7 pts
    2021Dereham SouthConservative+3.3 pts-0.4 pts+3.7 pts
    2021Thorpe HamletGreen+9.8 pts+6.3 pts+3.6 pts
    2021DersinghamLiberal Democrats-5.8 pts-2.3 pts-3.5 pts
    2021Blofield and BrundallConservative-3.8 pts-0.4 pts-3.5 pts
    2021North Walsham EastGreen+2.9 pts+6.3 pts-3.4 pts
    2021Clenchwarton and King's Lynn SouthLabour-5.7 pts-2.3 pts-3.4 pts
    2021Mile CrossLabour+1.1 pts-2.3 pts+3.4 pts
    2021Thetford EastLabour+1.1 pts-2.3 pts+3.4 pts
    2021SheringhamGreen+3.0 pts+6.3 pts-3.3 pts
    2021North CoastLabour-5.6 pts-2.3 pts-3.3 pts
    2021Gaywood North and CentralLabour+1.0 pts-2.3 pts+3.3 pts
    2021South SmallburghGreen+3.0 pts+6.3 pts-3.2 pts
    2021AylshamConservative+2.8 pts-0.4 pts+3.2 pts
    2021Gaywood North and CentralLiberal Democrats+0.8 pts-2.3 pts+3.2 pts
    2021Gaywood SouthLiberal Democrats-5.5 pts-2.3 pts-3.2 pts
    2021HensteadLabour-5.4 pts-2.3 pts-3.1 pts
    2021Marshland SouthConservative+2.8 pts-0.4 pts+3.1 pts
    2021Yarmouth Nelson and SouthtownLiberal Democrats+0.7 pts-2.3 pts+3.0 pts
    2021EatonGreen+3.3 pts+6.3 pts-3.0 pts
    2021Gorleston St AndrewsGreen+3.3 pts+6.3 pts-3.0 pts
    2021Catton GroveConservative-3.4 pts-0.4 pts-3.0 pts
    2021UniversityGreen+9.2 pts+6.3 pts+3.0 pts
    2021King's Lynn North and CentralLiberal Democrats-5.2 pts-2.3 pts-2.8 pts
    2021Gaywood North and CentralUK Independence Party (UKIP)-8.5 pts-5.7 pts-2.8 pts
    2021South SmallburghLabour+0.5 pts-2.3 pts+2.8 pts
    2021AcleConservative+2.4 pts-0.4 pts+2.8 pts
    2021FeltwellConservative-3.1 pts-0.4 pts-2.7 pts
    2021FakenhamLabour+0.4 pts-2.3 pts+2.7 pts
    2021MancroftConservative-3.1 pts-0.4 pts-2.7 pts
    2021ClaveringConservative-3.0 pts-0.4 pts-2.7 pts
    2021East DepwadeLabour+0.4 pts-2.3 pts+2.7 pts
    2021HoltLabour+0.4 pts-2.3 pts+2.7 pts
    2021LothinglandLabour-4.9 pts-2.3 pts-2.6 pts
    2021MagdalenLabour+0.3 pts-2.3 pts+2.6 pts
    2021BowthorpeLiberal Democrats+0.2 pts-2.3 pts+2.6 pts
    2021CromeGreen+3.8 pts+6.3 pts-2.5 pts
    2021Town CloseGreen+3.9 pts+6.3 pts-2.4 pts
    2021Elmham and MattishallLiberal Democrats+0.1 pts-2.3 pts+2.4 pts
    2021CromeLabour-4.7 pts-2.3 pts-2.4 pts
    2021WoodsideLiberal Democrats-4.7 pts-2.3 pts-2.4 pts
    2021Thorpe St AndrewLabour-4.7 pts-2.3 pts-2.4 pts
    2021Downham MarketLabour-0.0 pts-2.3 pts+2.3 pts
    2021SewellConservative+1.9 pts-0.4 pts+2.3 pts
    2021UniversityLiberal Democrats-0.1 pts-2.3 pts+2.2 pts
    2021HellesdonLiberal Democrats-0.1 pts-2.3 pts+2.2 pts
    2021AttleboroughConservative-2.5 pts-0.4 pts-2.1 pts
    2021CromeLiberal Democrats-0.2 pts-2.3 pts+2.1 pts
    2021WensumLiberal Democrats-0.3 pts-2.3 pts+2.0 pts
    2021ForehoeLabour-0.3 pts-2.3 pts+2.0 pts
    2021Melton ConstableGreen+4.3 pts+6.3 pts-2.0 pts
    2021Hevingham and SpixworthLabour-0.4 pts-2.3 pts+1.9 pts
    2021West FleggLiberal Democrats-4.2 pts-2.3 pts-1.8 pts
    2021Clenchwarton and King's Lynn SouthIndependent+5.3 pts+3.5 pts+1.8 pts
    2021Drayton and HorsfordLabour-4.1 pts-2.3 pts-1.8 pts
    2021SprowstonLiberal Democrats-4.1 pts-2.3 pts-1.8 pts
    2021HellesdonConservative-2.1 pts-0.4 pts-1.8 pts
    2021Catton GroveLiberal Democrats-0.6 pts-2.3 pts+1.7 pts
    2021Thorpe HamletConservative-2.1 pts-0.4 pts-1.7 pts
    2021Catton GroveGreen+4.6 pts+6.3 pts-1.7 pts
    2021East FleggLabour-0.6 pts-2.3 pts+1.7 pts
    2021Hoveton and StalhamLabour-0.6 pts-2.3 pts+1.6 pts
    2021NelsonConservative+1.2 pts-0.4 pts+1.6 pts
    2021West FleggLabour-3.7 pts-2.3 pts-1.4 pts
    2021Marshland SouthLabour-3.7 pts-2.3 pts-1.4 pts
    2021ClaveringLabour-3.7 pts-2.3 pts-1.4 pts
    2021Long StrattonConservative-1.8 pts-0.4 pts-1.4 pts
    2021AylshamLiberal Democrats-1.0 pts-2.3 pts+1.4 pts
    2021Town CloseConservative-1.7 pts-0.4 pts-1.3 pts
    2021NelsonLabour-3.6 pts-2.3 pts-1.3 pts
    2021ForehoeConservative-1.7 pts-0.4 pts-1.3 pts
    2021MundesleyLabour-3.6 pts-2.3 pts-1.3 pts
    2021FakenhamConservative+0.9 pts-0.4 pts+1.3 pts
    2021SheringhamLabour-3.5 pts-2.3 pts-1.2 pts
    2021Thetford WestConservative+0.8 pts-0.4 pts+1.2 pts
    2021Yarmouth North and CentralLiberal Democrats-1.2 pts-2.3 pts+1.2 pts
    2021Yarmouth North and CentralLabour-3.4 pts-2.3 pts-1.1 pts
    2021HoltGreen+5.2 pts+6.3 pts-1.1 pts
    2021North Walsham EastLabour-1.3 pts-2.3 pts+1.0 pts
    2021SheringhamLiberal Democrats-1.3 pts-2.3 pts+1.0 pts
    2021FinchamLabour-1.4 pts-2.3 pts+0.9 pts
    2021HinghamLabour-3.2 pts-2.3 pts-0.9 pts
    2021BowthorpeConservative-1.3 pts-0.4 pts-0.9 pts
    2021HellesdonLabour-3.1 pts-2.3 pts-0.8 pts
    2021Mile CrossLiberal Democrats-1.5 pts-2.3 pts+0.8 pts
    2021WattonGreen+5.4 pts+6.3 pts-0.8 pts
    2021Diss and RoydonGreen+5.4 pts+6.3 pts-0.8 pts
    2021Mile CrossGreen+7.1 pts+6.3 pts+0.8 pts
    2021TaverhamLabour-3.1 pts-2.3 pts-0.8 pts
    2021Gorleston St AndrewsLabour-3.1 pts-2.3 pts-0.8 pts
    2021CostesseyConservative+0.4 pts-0.4 pts+0.8 pts
    2021Marshland NorthLabour-3.0 pts-2.3 pts-0.8 pts
    2021SewellLiberal Democrats-3.0 pts-2.3 pts-0.7 pts
    2021FinchamConservative+0.3 pts-0.4 pts+0.6 pts
    2021BreydonLabour-2.9 pts-2.3 pts-0.6 pts
    2021Dereham SouthLiberal Democrats-1.8 pts-2.3 pts+0.5 pts
    2021West DepwadeLabour-2.8 pts-2.3 pts-0.5 pts
    2021FakenhamGreen+6.8 pts+6.3 pts+0.5 pts
    2021Blofield and BrundallLiberal Democrats-2.7 pts-2.3 pts-0.4 pts
    2021Melton ConstableLabour-1.9 pts-2.3 pts+0.4 pts
    2021North Walsham West and ErpinghamGreen+6.7 pts+6.3 pts+0.4 pts
    2021The BrecksConservative-0.7 pts-0.4 pts-0.3 pts
    2021The BrecksLiberal Democrats-2.0 pts-2.3 pts+0.3 pts
    2021SprowstonConservative-0.1 pts-0.4 pts+0.3 pts
    2021WroxhamGreen+6.5 pts+6.3 pts+0.2 pts
    2021Town CloseLiberal Democrats-2.1 pts-2.3 pts+0.2 pts
    2021Gaywood SouthUK Independence Party (UKIP)-5.5 pts-5.7 pts+0.2 pts
    2021WattonLabour-2.1 pts-2.3 pts+0.2 pts
    2021AttleboroughLabour-2.5 pts-2.3 pts-0.2 pts
    2021East FleggGreen+6.4 pts+6.3 pts+0.2 pts
    2021Diss and RoydonConservative-0.2 pts-0.4 pts+0.1 pts
    2021SwaffhamLiberal Democrats-2.4 pts-2.3 pts-0.1 pts
    2021DersinghamConservative-0.4 pts-0.4 pts-0.0 pts