North Kesteven: wards that bucked the trend
North Kesteven: in 2019, 14 ward results beat the expected swing and 12 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Sleaford Westholme (+82.2 pts actual vs +2.8 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Sleaford Westholme | Independent | +82.2 pts | +2.8 pts | +79.4 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell | Conservative | -60.4 pts | -10.1 pts | -50.3 pts |
| 2019 | North Hykeham Moor | Conservative | +18.2 pts | -10.1 pts | +28.3 pts |
| 2019 | Sleaford Quarrington & Mareham | Conservative | +15.9 pts | -10.1 pts | +26.1 pts |
| 2019 | Heckington Rural | Conservative | +13.9 pts | -10.1 pts | +24.0 pts |
| 2019 | Cliff Villages | Conservative | +12.0 pts | -10.1 pts | +22.1 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell | Independent | +24.3 pts | +2.8 pts | +21.5 pts |
| 2019 | Metheringham | Conservative | -30.1 pts | -10.1 pts | -20.0 pts |
| 2019 | Sleaford Navigation | Independent | -16.5 pts | +2.8 pts | -19.3 pts |
| 2019 | Osbournby | Conservative | -28.4 pts | -10.1 pts | -18.2 pts |
| 2019 | Bassingham and Brant Broughton | Conservative | -25.7 pts | -10.1 pts | -15.6 pts |
| 2019 | North Hykeham Mill | Conservative | +4.8 pts | -10.1 pts | +14.9 pts |
| 2019 | Waddington West | Conservative | +3.8 pts | -10.1 pts | +13.9 pts |
| 2019 | Ruskington | Conservative | -21.0 pts | -10.1 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2019 | Heighington & Washingborough | Conservative | -20.8 pts | -10.1 pts | -10.7 pts |
| 2019 | Sleaford Holdingham | Conservative | -17.1 pts | -10.1 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2019 | North Hykeham Memorial | Conservative | -16.3 pts | -10.1 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2019 | Bracebridge Heath and Waddington East | Conservative | -4.0 pts | -10.1 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2019 | North Hykeham Forum | Conservative | -5.1 pts | -10.1 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Sleaford Navigation | Conservative | -5.2 pts | -10.1 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Skellingthorpe | Independent | -1.6 pts | +2.8 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2019 | Branston | Conservative | -13.7 pts | -10.1 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Sleaford Holdingham | Independent | +0.0 pts | +2.8 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Skellingthorpe | Conservative | -7.8 pts | -10.1 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Sleaford Castle | Conservative | -8.0 pts | -10.1 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Skellingthorpe | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | +0.3 pts | +0.6 pts |