North Lincolnshire: wards that bucked the trend
North Lincolnshire: in 2019, 24 ward results beat the expected swing and 20 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Town (+21.3 pts actual vs -0.9 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Town | Labour | +21.3 pts | -0.9 pts | +22.2 pts |
| 2019 | Brumby | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -29.2 pts | -8.3 pts | -20.9 pts |
| 2019 | Crosby & Park | Labour | +19.0 pts | -0.9 pts | +19.9 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby | Labour | +17.6 pts | -0.9 pts | +18.5 pts |
| 2019 | Frodingham | Conservative | -12.4 pts | +4.9 pts | -17.3 pts |
| 2019 | Barton | Green | +15.6 pts | +1.4 pts | +14.2 pts |
| 2019 | Barton | Labour | -11.7 pts | -0.9 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2019 | Axholme Central | Conservative | -5.5 pts | +4.9 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2019 | Ferry | Conservative | -5.4 pts | +4.9 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2019 | Axholme North | Labour | -11.0 pts | -0.9 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2019 | Axholme Central | Labour | -9.6 pts | -0.9 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2019 | Brumby | Labour | +7.6 pts | -0.9 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2019 | Ferry | Green | +9.2 pts | +1.4 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2019 | Kingsway with Lincoln Gardens | Conservative | -2.7 pts | +4.9 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Brigg & Wolds | Labour | -7.9 pts | -0.9 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2019 | Burringham & Gunness | Conservative | +11.5 pts | +4.9 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2019 | Crosby & Park | Conservative | -1.1 pts | +4.9 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2019 | Burton upon Stather & Winterton | Conservative | +9.9 pts | +4.9 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Frodingham | Labour | -5.8 pts | -0.9 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Barton | Conservative | +0.4 pts | +4.9 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Bottesford | Conservative | +9.1 pts | +4.9 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Town | Conservative | +0.9 pts | +4.9 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Axholme South | Labour | -4.4 pts | -0.9 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Axholme South | Conservative | +1.4 pts | +4.9 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2019 | Ridge | Green | +4.7 pts | +1.4 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2019 | Broughton and Appleby | Green | +4.5 pts | +1.4 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2019 | Brigg & Wolds | Conservative | +2.4 pts | +4.9 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Bottesford | Labour | +1.6 pts | -0.9 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Kingsway with Lincoln Gardens | Labour | +1.3 pts | -0.9 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Ridge | Labour | +1.2 pts | -0.9 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Axholme Central | Green | -0.7 pts | +1.4 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2019 | Axholme North | Green | -0.3 pts | +1.4 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Axholme South | Green | +3.0 pts | +1.4 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Ridge | Conservative | +3.3 pts | +4.9 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Burton upon Stather & Winterton | Labour | +0.5 pts | -0.9 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Broughton and Appleby | Labour | +0.2 pts | -0.9 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2019 | Burringham & Gunness | Labour | -1.9 pts | -0.9 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Ferry | Labour | +0.1 pts | -0.9 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Axholme North | Conservative | +5.7 pts | +4.9 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Broughton and Appleby | Conservative | +5.7 pts | +4.9 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Brigg & Wolds | Green | +2.0 pts | +1.4 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby | Conservative | +5.5 pts | +4.9 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2019 | Kingsway with Lincoln Gardens | Green | +1.4 pts | +1.4 pts | +0.0 pts |
| 2019 | Brumby | Green | +1.4 pts | +1.4 pts | +0.0 pts |