North Somerset: wards that bucked the trend
North Somerset: in 2019, 43 ward results beat the expected swing and 45 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Portishead East (-39.1 pts actual vs -11.5 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Portishead East | Conservative | -39.1 pts | -11.5 pts | -27.5 pts |
| 2019 | Wick St Lawrence & St Georges | Conservative | +14.6 pts | -11.5 pts | +26.1 pts |
| 2019 | Clevedon Yeo | Labour | +27.4 pts | +1.8 pts | +25.6 pts |
| 2019 | Gordano Valley | Liberal Democrats | +28.9 pts | +3.6 pts | +25.4 pts |
| 2019 | Clevedon East | Liberal Democrats | +27.7 pts | +3.6 pts | +24.2 pts |
| 2019 | Backwell | Conservative | -35.6 pts | -11.5 pts | -24.1 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Winterstoke | Conservative | +10.1 pts | -11.5 pts | +21.7 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare North Worle | Conservative | +8.2 pts | -11.5 pts | +19.7 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Winterstoke | Labour | +21.2 pts | +1.8 pts | +19.4 pts |
| 2019 | Portishead West | Conservative | -30.7 pts | -11.5 pts | -19.1 pts |
| 2019 | Wick St Lawrence & St Georges | Labour | +20.4 pts | +1.8 pts | +18.6 pts |
| 2019 | Winford | Independent | +26.2 pts | +7.7 pts | +18.6 pts |
| 2019 | Wrington | Conservative | -29.6 pts | -11.5 pts | -18.0 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare North Worle | Liberal Democrats | +20.3 pts | +3.6 pts | +16.7 pts |
| 2019 | Yatton | Independent | +23.8 pts | +7.7 pts | +16.1 pts |
| 2019 | Banwell & Winscombe | Green | +16.3 pts | +0.3 pts | +16.1 pts |
| 2019 | Portishead South | Liberal Democrats | +19.6 pts | +3.6 pts | +16.0 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Mid Worle | Liberal Democrats | +19.4 pts | +3.6 pts | +15.8 pts |
| 2019 | Clevedon South | Conservative | -27.2 pts | -11.5 pts | -15.7 pts |
| 2019 | Portishead North | Conservative | -26.8 pts | -11.5 pts | -15.2 pts |
| 2019 | Winford | Conservative | -26.2 pts | -11.5 pts | -14.7 pts |
| 2019 | Nailsea Youngwood | Independent | -6.8 pts | +7.7 pts | -14.4 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Milton | Labour | +16.1 pts | +1.8 pts | +14.3 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare South Worle | Conservative | +2.7 pts | -11.5 pts | +14.2 pts |
| 2019 | BLAGDON & CHURCHILL | Conservative | -25.7 pts | -11.5 pts | -14.2 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Hillside | Liberal Democrats | +17.5 pts | +3.6 pts | +13.9 pts |
| 2019 | Banwell & Winscombe | Conservative | +2.0 pts | -11.5 pts | +13.5 pts |
| 2019 | Nailsea West End | Independent | +21.1 pts | +7.7 pts | +13.5 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Mid Worle | Conservative | +1.4 pts | -11.5 pts | +13.0 pts |
| 2019 | Congresbury & Puxton | Labour | +14.5 pts | +1.8 pts | +12.7 pts |
| 2019 | Congresbury & Puxton | Conservative | -24.3 pts | -11.5 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Uphill | Independent | +19.1 pts | +7.7 pts | +11.4 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Kewstoke | Conservative | -0.5 pts | -11.5 pts | +11.0 pts |
| 2019 | Portishead West | Liberal Democrats | -7.2 pts | +3.6 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare South Worle | Labour | +12.0 pts | +1.8 pts | +10.2 pts |
| 2019 | Clevedon East | Conservative | -21.6 pts | -11.5 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2019 | Nailsea Yeo | Independent | +17.7 pts | +7.7 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2019 | Clevedon East | Independent | -2.3 pts | +7.7 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2019 | Nailsea Youngwood | Conservative | -1.7 pts | -11.5 pts | +9.9 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Central | Liberal Democrats | +13.3 pts | +3.6 pts | +9.7 pts |
| 2019 | Nailsea West End | Conservative | -21.1 pts | -11.5 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2019 | Portishead North | Labour | -7.0 pts | +1.8 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2019 | Gordano Valley | Conservative | -3.2 pts | -11.5 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Uphill | Conservative | -3.2 pts | -11.5 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2019 | Banwell & Winscombe | Labour | +10.1 pts | +1.8 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Milton | Conservative | -3.6 pts | -11.5 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Nailsea Yeo | Labour | -6.1 pts | +1.8 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2019 | BLAGDON & CHURCHILL | Labour | -5.6 pts | +1.8 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2019 | Clevedon Walton | Labour | -5.4 pts | +1.8 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2019 | Long Ashton | Green | +7.2 pts | +0.3 pts | +7.0 pts |
| 2019 | Portishead South | Labour | -4.8 pts | +1.8 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2019 | Nailsea Yeo | Conservative | -17.7 pts | -11.5 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2019 | Portishead East | Labour | -4.2 pts | +1.8 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2019 | Clevedon East | Labour | -3.8 pts | +1.8 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2019 | Clevedon West | Conservative | -6.1 pts | -11.5 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Kewstoke | Liberal Democrats | -1.8 pts | +3.6 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Milton | Liberal Democrats | -1.8 pts | +3.6 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2019 | Portishead West | Labour | -3.4 pts | +1.8 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Pill | Independent | +12.6 pts | +7.7 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Long Ashton | Liberal Democrats | +8.4 pts | +3.6 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2019 | Wrington | Labour | -2.7 pts | +1.8 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Long Ashton | Conservative | -16.0 pts | -11.5 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Nailsea Golden Valley | Conservative | -15.8 pts | -11.5 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Yatton | Conservative | -15.8 pts | -11.5 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Yatton | Labour | -2.2 pts | +1.8 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Kewstoke | Labour | +5.3 pts | +1.8 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2019 | Portishead South | Conservative | -14.7 pts | -11.5 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Hillside | Conservative | -8.8 pts | -11.5 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hutton & Locking | Conservative | -8.8 pts | -11.5 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Central | Labour | -0.9 pts | +1.8 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare North Worle | Labour | +4.1 pts | +1.8 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Uphill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.0 pts | -2.7 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hutton & Locking | Labour | -0.5 pts | +1.8 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Clevedon Yeo | Conservative | -9.3 pts | -11.5 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2019 | Gordano Valley | Labour | -0.4 pts | +1.8 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Hillside | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.4 pts | -2.7 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Nailsea Golden Valley | Independent | +9.2 pts | +7.7 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Hillside | Labour | +0.3 pts | +1.8 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2019 | Long Ashton | Labour | +0.4 pts | +1.8 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Clevedon Walton | Conservative | -12.8 pts | -11.5 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Yatton | Liberal Democrats | +4.8 pts | +3.6 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Pill | Conservative | -12.6 pts | -11.5 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Mid Worle | Labour | +0.8 pts | +1.8 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Central | Conservative | -12.3 pts | -11.5 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Uphill | Labour | +2.6 pts | +1.8 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Uphill | Liberal Democrats | +3.3 pts | +3.6 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare Kewstoke | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.0 pts | -2.7 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Weston-super-Mare South Worle | Liberal Democrats | +3.4 pts | +3.6 pts | -0.2 pts |