North Warwickshire: wards that bucked the trend
North Warwickshire: in 2019, 19 ward results beat the expected swing and 18 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Dordon (-22.2 pts actual vs +1.6 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Dordon | Labour | -22.2 pts | +1.6 pts | -23.8 pts |
| 2019 | Polesworth West | Labour | -15.3 pts | +1.6 pts | -16.9 pts |
| 2019 | Atherstone North | Labour | -15.3 pts | +1.6 pts | -16.8 pts |
| 2019 | Water Orton | Conservative | +27.2 pts | +10.4 pts | +16.8 pts |
| 2019 | Kingsbury | Conservative | +26.5 pts | +10.4 pts | +16.1 pts |
| 2019 | Coleshill South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +0.8 pts | -15.3 pts | +16.0 pts |
| 2019 | Dordon | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -0.8 pts | -15.3 pts | +14.5 pts |
| 2019 | Polesworth East | Labour | +15.4 pts | +1.6 pts | +13.8 pts |
| 2019 | Arley & Whitacre | Labour | +15.1 pts | +1.6 pts | +13.5 pts |
| 2019 | Kingsbury | Labour | -11.7 pts | +1.6 pts | -13.2 pts |
| 2019 | Polesworth East | Conservative | -2.3 pts | +10.4 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2019 | Fillongley | Conservative | +21.5 pts | +10.4 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2019 | Hurley & Wood End | Labour | +12.4 pts | +1.6 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2019 | Atherstone North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.9 pts | -15.3 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2019 | Newton Regis & Warton | Labour | +11.7 pts | +1.6 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2019 | Newton Regis & Warton | Conservative | +0.8 pts | +10.4 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2019 | Arley & Whitacre | Conservative | +1.6 pts | +10.4 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2019 | Coleshill South | Conservative | +1.8 pts | +10.4 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2019 | Curdworth | Labour | +9.6 pts | +1.6 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Atherstone South & Mancetter | Conservative | +17.8 pts | +10.4 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2019 | Atherstone North | Conservative | +3.4 pts | +10.4 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2019 | Curdworth | Conservative | +16.3 pts | +10.4 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2019 | Coleshill North | Labour | +7.4 pts | +1.6 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2019 | Atherstone South & Mancetter | Labour | +7.3 pts | +1.6 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Coleshill North | Conservative | +4.9 pts | +10.4 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2019 | Baddesley & Grendon | Conservative | +15.8 pts | +10.4 pts | +5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Baddesley & Grendon | Labour | -3.6 pts | +1.6 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2019 | Polesworth West | Conservative | +5.3 pts | +10.4 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2019 | Hartshill | Conservative | +5.5 pts | +10.4 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Coleshill South | Labour | -2.6 pts | +1.6 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2019 | Dordon | Conservative | +6.6 pts | +10.4 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2019 | Atherstone Central | Labour | -1.7 pts | +1.6 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2019 | Atherstone Central | Conservative | +7.2 pts | +10.4 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2019 | Hartshill | Labour | -1.2 pts | +1.6 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Hurley & Wood End | Conservative | +13.1 pts | +10.4 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Fillongley | Labour | +4.1 pts | +1.6 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Water Orton | Labour | +1.7 pts | +1.6 pts | +0.2 pts |