North West Leicestershire: wards that bucked the trend
North West Leicestershire: in 2019, 59 ward results beat the expected swing and 35 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Castle Donington Park (+31.5 pts actual vs -2.0 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Castle Donington Park | Labour | +31.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +33.5 pts |
| 2019 | Ibstock West | Conservative | +26.6 pts | -1.8 pts | +28.4 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby Castle | Conservative | -29.5 pts | -1.8 pts | -27.7 pts |
| 2019 | Daleacre Hill | Labour | +23.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +25.7 pts |
| 2019 | Snibston North | Conservative | -21.3 pts | -1.8 pts | -19.5 pts |
| 2019 | Measham South | Conservative | -20.9 pts | -1.8 pts | -19.0 pts |
| 2019 | Castle Donington Central | Independent | +18.5 pts | -0.2 pts | +18.7 pts |
| 2019 | Long Whatton & Diseworth | Labour | +15.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +17.5 pts |
| 2019 | Bardon | Conservative | -19.2 pts | -1.8 pts | -17.4 pts |
| 2019 | Coalville East | Liberal Democrats | +23.0 pts | +6.0 pts | +17.0 pts |
| 2019 | Coalville West | Liberal Democrats | +22.8 pts | +6.0 pts | +16.9 pts |
| 2019 | Thringstone | Labour | +13.2 pts | -2.0 pts | +15.2 pts |
| 2019 | Holly Hayes | Conservative | +12.5 pts | -1.8 pts | +14.3 pts |
| 2019 | Long Whatton & Diseworth | Conservative | -15.5 pts | -1.8 pts | -13.7 pts |
| 2019 | Hugglescote St Mary's | Liberal Democrats | +19.6 pts | +6.0 pts | +13.6 pts |
| 2019 | Castle Donington Central | Conservative | -14.8 pts | -1.8 pts | -13.0 pts |
| 2019 | Daleacre Hill | Conservative | +10.5 pts | -1.8 pts | +12.3 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby Willesley | Labour | +9.8 pts | -2.0 pts | +11.8 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby Castle | Labour | -13.5 pts | -2.0 pts | -11.6 pts |
| 2019 | Greenhill | Liberal Democrats | +17.0 pts | +6.0 pts | +11.0 pts |
| 2019 | Ellistown & Battleflat | Labour | -12.9 pts | -2.0 pts | -10.9 pts |
| 2019 | Thornborough | Conservative | +9.1 pts | -1.8 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2019 | APPLEBY | Labour | -12.7 pts | -2.0 pts | -10.7 pts |
| 2019 | APPLEBY | Conservative | -12.4 pts | -1.8 pts | -10.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hugglescote St Mary's | Labour | -12.4 pts | -2.0 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2019 | Thringstone | Conservative | +8.3 pts | -1.8 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2019 | Snibston South | Liberal Democrats | +16.0 pts | +6.0 pts | +10.0 pts |
| 2019 | Broom Leys | Labour | -11.9 pts | -2.0 pts | -10.0 pts |
| 2019 | Thornborough | Labour | +7.9 pts | -2.0 pts | +9.8 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby Money Hill | Labour | +7.8 pts | -2.0 pts | +9.7 pts |
| 2019 | Castle Rock | Liberal Democrats | +15.7 pts | +6.0 pts | +9.7 pts |
| 2019 | Kegworth | Conservative | +7.7 pts | -1.8 pts | +9.5 pts |
| 2019 | Castle Rock | Labour | -11.3 pts | -2.0 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Ravenstone & Packington | Labour | -11.3 pts | -2.0 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby Money Hill | Conservative | +7.2 pts | -1.8 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2019 | Ravenstone & Packington | Conservative | +7.0 pts | -1.8 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2019 | Snibston North | Labour | -10.7 pts | -2.0 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2019 | Snibston South | Conservative | -10.2 pts | -1.8 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby Holywell | Conservative | +6.5 pts | -1.8 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2019 | Measham South | Labour | -10.1 pts | -2.0 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2019 | Blackfordby | Conservative | +6.2 pts | -1.8 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby Willesley | Conservative | -9.8 pts | -1.8 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2019 | Broom Leys | Conservative | +5.9 pts | -1.8 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2019 | Bardon | Liberal Democrats | +13.6 pts | +6.0 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Ellistown & Battleflat | Conservative | +5.7 pts | -1.8 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hermitage | Labour | +5.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2019 | Coalville West | Labour | +5.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2019 | Kegworth | Labour | +5.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2019 | Hermitage | Conservative | +5.5 pts | -1.8 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2019 | Castle Donington Park | Conservative | +5.3 pts | -1.8 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2019 | Castle Donington Castle | Independent | +6.8 pts | -0.2 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2019 | Measham North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +2.2 pts | -4.6 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2019 | Worthington & Breedon | Conservative | +4.8 pts | -1.8 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2019 | Ibstock East | Labour | +4.2 pts | -2.0 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2019 | Ibstock East | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +1.5 pts | -4.6 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2019 | Bardon | Labour | -7.9 pts | -2.0 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2019 | Greenhill | Conservative | -7.6 pts | -1.8 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2019 | Castle Donington Castle | Conservative | -7.5 pts | -1.8 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2019 | Hugglescote St Mary's | Conservative | -7.2 pts | -1.8 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2019 | Coalville East | Labour | +3.0 pts | -2.0 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2019 | Snibston South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +0.4 pts | -4.6 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2019 | Greenhill | Labour | -6.6 pts | -2.0 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2019 | Hugglescote St John's | Liberal Democrats | +10.5 pts | +6.0 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2019 | Hugglescote St John's | Labour | +2.3 pts | -2.0 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2019 | Blackfordby | Labour | -6.2 pts | -2.0 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2019 | Snibston South | Labour | -6.1 pts | -2.0 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2019 | OAKTHORPE & DONISTHORPE | Conservative | +2.0 pts | -1.8 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2019 | Coalville East | Conservative | -5.4 pts | -1.8 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby Holywell | Liberal Democrats | +9.0 pts | +6.0 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2019 | Valley | Conservative | -4.7 pts | -1.8 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2019 | Castle Donington Castle | Labour | +0.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2019 | Castle Rock | Conservative | -4.4 pts | -1.8 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby Holywell | Labour | +0.5 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby Woulds | Conservative | +0.6 pts | -1.8 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2019 | Sence Valley | Labour | +0.2 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby Ivanhoe | Labour | +0.1 pts | -2.0 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Coalville West | Conservative | -3.9 pts | -1.8 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2019 | Valley | Liberal Democrats | +7.9 pts | +6.0 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2019 | Greenhill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -2.7 pts | -4.6 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Hugglescote St John's | Conservative | -0.1 pts | -1.8 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2019 | Castle Donington Central | Labour | -3.7 pts | -2.0 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby Ivanhoe | Conservative | -0.1 pts | -1.8 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2019 | Sence Valley | Conservative | -0.2 pts | -1.8 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2019 | Ashby Woulds | Labour | -0.6 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2019 | Ibstock West | Labour | -0.7 pts | -2.0 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2019 | Valley | Labour | -3.2 pts | -2.0 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2019 | Ibstock East | Conservative | -0.9 pts | -1.8 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2019 | Measham North | Conservative | -1.1 pts | -1.8 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Worthington & Breedon | Labour | -2.6 pts | -2.0 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2019 | Ellistown & Battleflat | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -4.1 pts | -4.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2019 | Holly Hayes | Labour | -2.3 pts | -2.0 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2019 | Snibston North | Liberal Democrats | +5.8 pts | +6.0 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2019 | Broom Leys | Liberal Democrats | +6.1 pts | +6.0 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2019 | OAKTHORPE & DONISTHORPE | Labour | -2.0 pts | -2.0 pts | -0.0 pts |