North Yorkshire: wards that bucked the trend
North Yorkshire: in 2017, 102 ward results beat the expected swing and 86 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Tadcaster (-25.2 pts actual vs +12.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Tadcaster | Conservative | -25.2 pts | +12.4 pts | -37.6 pts |
| 2017 | Hovingham and Sheriff Hutton | Conservative | -15.4 pts | +12.4 pts | -27.8 pts |
| 2017 | Eastfield and Osgodby | Labour | +23.9 pts | -0.3 pts | +24.2 pts |
| 2017 | Weaponness and Ramshill | Labour | +22.6 pts | -0.3 pts | +22.8 pts |
| 2017 | Filey | Conservative | +34.2 pts | +12.4 pts | +21.8 pts |
| 2017 | Ainsty | Conservative | +33.9 pts | +12.4 pts | +21.5 pts |
| 2017 | Ribblesdale | Labour | +20.6 pts | -0.3 pts | +20.8 pts |
| 2017 | Middle Dales | Conservative | +33.0 pts | +12.4 pts | +20.6 pts |
| 2017 | Norton | Conservative | +32.5 pts | +12.4 pts | +20.1 pts |
| 2017 | Skipton West | Liberal Democrats | -17.9 pts | +1.3 pts | -19.2 pts |
| 2017 | Tadcaster | Labour | -18.2 pts | -0.3 pts | -18.0 pts |
| 2017 | Selby Brayton | Labour | -18.1 pts | -0.3 pts | -17.8 pts |
| 2017 | Hovingham and Sheriff Hutton | Liberal Democrats | +18.6 pts | +1.3 pts | +17.3 pts |
| 2017 | Pateley Bridge | Liberal Democrats | +18.5 pts | +1.3 pts | +17.1 pts |
| 2017 | Airedale | Conservative | -3.8 pts | +12.4 pts | -16.2 pts |
| 2017 | Richmondshire North | Conservative | +28.4 pts | +12.4 pts | +16.1 pts |
| 2017 | Mid Selby | Conservative | +28.0 pts | +12.4 pts | +15.6 pts |
| 2017 | Mid Craven | Labour | +15.4 pts | -0.3 pts | +15.6 pts |
| 2017 | Boroughbridge | Conservative | +27.8 pts | +12.4 pts | +15.4 pts |
| 2017 | Upper Dales | Independent | -15.9 pts | -1.2 pts | -14.8 pts |
| 2017 | Whitby/Mayfield cum Mulgrave | Labour | +14.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +14.4 pts |
| 2017 | Sowerby | Conservative | -1.5 pts | +12.4 pts | -13.9 pts |
| 2017 | Falsgrave and Stepney | Green | +15.1 pts | +2.3 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2017 | Cawood and Saxton | Labour | -12.9 pts | -0.3 pts | -12.6 pts |
| 2017 | Richmond | Conservative | -0.2 pts | +12.4 pts | -12.6 pts |
| 2017 | Easingwold | Conservative | +0.1 pts | +12.4 pts | -12.3 pts |
| 2017 | Romanby and Broomfield | Conservative | +0.1 pts | +12.4 pts | -12.2 pts |
| 2017 | Lower Nidderdale and Bishop Monkton | Conservative | +24.6 pts | +12.4 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2017 | Castle | Conservative | +0.4 pts | +12.4 pts | -11.9 pts |
| 2017 | Skipton West | Labour | +11.5 pts | -0.3 pts | +11.8 pts |
| 2017 | Filey | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -1.0 pts | -12.8 pts | +11.8 pts |
| 2017 | Newby | Conservative | +23.9 pts | +12.4 pts | +11.5 pts |
| 2017 | Cawood and Saxton | Conservative | +1.1 pts | +12.4 pts | -11.2 pts |
| 2017 | Central Richmondshire | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -23.9 pts | -12.8 pts | -11.1 pts |
| 2017 | South Selby | Conservative | +23.3 pts | +12.4 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2017 | Skipton West | Green | -8.5 pts | +2.3 pts | -10.8 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Bilton and Nidd Gorge | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -23.5 pts | -12.8 pts | -10.7 pts |
| 2017 | Pateley Bridge | Conservative | +1.9 pts | +12.4 pts | -10.5 pts |
| 2017 | Stokesley | Liberal Democrats | +11.8 pts | +1.3 pts | +10.5 pts |
| 2017 | Whitby/Mayfield cum Mulgrave | Conservative | +22.7 pts | +12.4 pts | +10.3 pts |
| 2017 | Thornton Dale and Wolds | Conservative | +2.2 pts | +12.4 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2017 | Northstead | Liberal Democrats | +10.7 pts | +1.3 pts | +9.4 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Central | Liberal Democrats | -7.8 pts | +1.3 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2017 | Northstead | Labour | +8.5 pts | -0.3 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2017 | Kirkbymoorside | LIB | -9.3 pts | -0.6 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2017 | Esk Valley | Conservative | +21.0 pts | +12.4 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2017 | Scalby and the Coast | Liberal Democrats | +9.9 pts | +1.3 pts | +8.6 pts |
| 2017 | Stokesley | Labour | -8.7 pts | -0.3 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2017 | Skipton West | Independent | +7.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2017 | North Hambleton | Conservative | +4.2 pts | +12.4 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2017 | Bedale | Conservative | +20.3 pts | +12.4 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2017 | Osgoldcross | Conservative | +4.4 pts | +12.4 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2017 | Whitby Streonshalh | Labour | +7.6 pts | -0.3 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2017 | Knaresborough | Liberal Democrats | -6.5 pts | +1.3 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2017 | Central Richmondshire | Independent | +6.6 pts | -1.2 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2017 | Kirkbymoorside | Conservative | +4.6 pts | +12.4 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2017 | Ripon North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -20.5 pts | -12.8 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2017 | Pickering | Conservative | +4.8 pts | +12.4 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2017 | Ribblesdale | Conservative | +19.8 pts | +12.4 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2017 | Falsgrave and Stepney | Labour | +7.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2017 | Whitby Streonshalh | Conservative | +5.2 pts | +12.4 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2017 | Thornton Dale and Wolds | Labour | -7.1 pts | -0.3 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2017 | Scalby and the Coast | Labour | +6.5 pts | -0.3 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Harlow | Labour | +6.3 pts | -0.3 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2017 | Escrick | Labour | +6.2 pts | -0.3 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2017 | Eastfield and Osgodby | Conservative | +18.8 pts | +12.4 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2017 | Mid Craven | Conservative | +18.8 pts | +12.4 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2017 | Hertford and Cayton | Labour | +6.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2017 | Ripon South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -19.1 pts | -12.8 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2017 | Skipton East | Independent | -7.4 pts | -1.2 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2017 | Woodlands | Independent | -7.4 pts | -1.2 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2017 | Sherburn in Elmet | Conservative | +18.6 pts | +12.4 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2017 | Hovingham and Sheriff Hutton | Labour | -6.5 pts | -0.3 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2017 | Masham and Fountains | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -18.9 pts | -12.8 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2017 | South Craven | Independent | +5.0 pts | -1.2 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2017 | Seamer and Derwent Valley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -18.9 pts | -12.8 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2017 | Pannal and Lower Wharfedale | Green | +8.2 pts | +2.3 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2017 | Malton | Conservative | +6.5 pts | +12.4 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Saltergate | Green | -3.4 pts | +2.3 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Central | Labour | +5.4 pts | -0.3 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2017 | Esk Valley | Labour | -5.9 pts | -0.3 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2017 | Osgoldcross | Labour | -5.8 pts | -0.3 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2017 | Ripon South | Independent | +4.3 pts | -1.2 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2017 | Hertford and Cayton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -18.0 pts | -12.8 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2017 | Catterick Bridge | Conservative | +17.6 pts | +12.4 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2017 | Castle | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.8 pts | -12.8 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Starbeck | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -17.7 pts | -12.8 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2017 | Woodlands | Conservative | +17.1 pts | +12.4 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2017 | Pateley Bridge | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -17.5 pts | -12.8 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2017 | Selby Barlby | Labour | -4.9 pts | -0.3 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2017 | Skipton West | Conservative | +7.7 pts | +12.4 pts | -4.6 pts |
| 2017 | Great Ayton | Conservative | +16.9 pts | +12.4 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Harlow | Conservative | +16.9 pts | +12.4 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2017 | Masham and Fountains | Liberal Democrats | +5.8 pts | +1.3 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2017 | Skipton East | Labour | +4.2 pts | -0.3 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2017 | Norton | Liberal Democrats | -3.0 pts | +1.3 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2017 | Romanby and Broomfield | Labour | -4.6 pts | -0.3 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2017 | Scalby and the Coast | Conservative | +8.1 pts | +12.4 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2017 | Escrick | Conservative | +8.2 pts | +12.4 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Saltergate | Liberal Democrats | +5.5 pts | +1.3 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2017 | Scalby and the Coast | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.9 pts | -12.8 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2017 | Ripon North | Independent | +2.8 pts | -1.2 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2017 | Northstead | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.7 pts | -12.8 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2017 | Newby | Green | -1.4 pts | +2.3 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2017 | Newby | Labour | -3.9 pts | -0.3 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2017 | Romanby and Broomfield | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.2 pts | -12.8 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2017 | Great Ayton | Liberal Democrats | +4.7 pts | +1.3 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2017 | Pickering | LIB | +2.7 pts | -0.6 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2017 | North Hambleton | Labour | -3.6 pts | -0.3 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2017 | Sherburn in Elmet | Labour | -3.6 pts | -0.3 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2017 | Northallerton | Conservative | +9.1 pts | +12.4 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2017 | Airedale | Labour | +3.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2017 | Knaresborough | Labour | +2.9 pts | -0.3 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2017 | South Selby | Labour | -3.4 pts | -0.3 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2017 | Bedale | Labour | +2.9 pts | -0.3 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2017 | Esk Valley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.9 pts | -12.8 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2017 | Ripon South | Conservative | +15.5 pts | +12.4 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2017 | Northallerton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.9 pts | -12.8 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2017 | Richmondshire North | Green | +5.4 pts | +2.3 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2017 | Central Richmondshire | Conservative | +9.4 pts | +12.4 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2017 | Selby Barlby | Conservative | +15.3 pts | +12.4 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Oatlands | Liberal Democrats | +4.2 pts | +1.3 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Bilton and Nidd Gorge | Conservative | +15.2 pts | +12.4 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2017 | Castle | Independent | +1.6 pts | -1.2 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Central | Conservative | +15.0 pts | +12.4 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Starbeck | Liberal Democrats | +4.0 pts | +1.3 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2017 | Middle Dales | Labour | +2.4 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2017 | Pateley Bridge | Labour | -2.8 pts | -0.3 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2017 | Seamer and Derwent Valley | Conservative | +14.9 pts | +12.4 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2017 | Knaresborough | Green | +4.7 pts | +2.3 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2017 | Central Richmondshire | Labour | +2.2 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Oatlands | Labour | -2.7 pts | -0.3 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2017 | Knaresborough | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.2 pts | -12.8 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2017 | Kirkbymoorside | Labour | -2.7 pts | -0.3 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2017 | Richmond | Labour | +2.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2017 | Richmondshire North | Labour | +2.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2017 | Castle | Labour | +2.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2017 | Pickering | Labour | +2.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2017 | North Craven | Conservative | +10.1 pts | +12.4 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2017 | Great Ayton | Labour | +2.0 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2017 | Catterick Bridge | Green | +0.1 pts | +2.3 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2017 | Ripon North | Conservative | +10.2 pts | +12.4 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2017 | Catterick Bridge | Labour | +1.9 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2017 | Stokesley | Conservative | +14.5 pts | +12.4 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2017 | Upper Dales | Conservative | +14.5 pts | +12.4 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2017 | Ainsty | Labour | +1.8 pts | -0.3 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2017 | Woodlands | Labour | +1.7 pts | -0.3 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2017 | Weaponness and Ramshill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.7 pts | -12.8 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2017 | Falsgrave and Stepney | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.7 pts | -12.8 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2017 | Skipton East | Conservative | +14.3 pts | +12.4 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Starbeck | Labour | -2.1 pts | -0.3 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2017 | Ripon South | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | +1.3 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2017 | Ripon North | Labour | -2.1 pts | -0.3 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2017 | South Craven | Labour | +1.6 pts | -0.3 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2017 | Knaresborough | Conservative | +14.0 pts | +12.4 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2017 | Weaponness and Ramshill | Green | +3.9 pts | +2.3 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2017 | Woodlands | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.2 pts | -12.8 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2017 | Selby Brayton | Conservative | +10.8 pts | +12.4 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2017 | Woodlands | Green | +3.6 pts | +2.3 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Oatlands | Conservative | +11.1 pts | +12.4 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2017 | Whitby Streonshalh | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.0 pts | -12.8 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Saltergate | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.0 pts | -12.8 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2017 | Masham and Fountains | Conservative | +13.6 pts | +12.4 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Bilton and Nidd Gorge | Labour | -1.4 pts | -0.3 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Bilton and Nidd Gorge | Liberal Democrats | +2.3 pts | +1.3 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2017 | Boroughbridge | Labour | -1.1 pts | -0.3 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2017 | Northstead | Green | +3.1 pts | +2.3 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2017 | Falsgrave and Stepney | Conservative | +13.1 pts | +12.4 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2017 | Lower Nidderdale and Bishop Monkton | Labour | -1.0 pts | -0.3 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2017 | Middle Dales | Liberal Democrats | +1.9 pts | +1.3 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2017 | Northallerton | Labour | +0.3 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Saltergate | Conservative | +11.8 pts | +12.4 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Saltergate | Labour | +0.2 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2017 | Mid Selby | Labour | +0.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2017 | Osgoldcross | Independent | -0.8 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2017 | Upper Dales | Green | +2.0 pts | +2.3 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2017 | Hertford and Cayton | Conservative | +12.6 pts | +12.4 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2017 | Upper Dales | Labour | -0.5 pts | -0.3 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2017 | Masham and Fountains | Labour | -0.5 pts | -0.3 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2017 | Middle Dales | Green | +2.5 pts | +2.3 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2017 | Weaponness and Ramshill | Conservative | +12.6 pts | +12.4 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2017 | Pannal and Lower Wharfedale | Labour | -0.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Starbeck | Conservative | +12.5 pts | +12.4 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2017 | Ripon South | Labour | -0.1 pts | -0.3 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2017 | Skipton East | Green | +2.2 pts | +2.3 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2017 | Harrogate Central | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.7 pts | -12.8 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2017 | Northstead | Conservative | +12.3 pts | +12.4 pts | -0.0 pts |
| 2017 | Pannal and Lower Wharfedale | Conservative | +12.4 pts | +12.4 pts | +0.0 pts |