Northamptonshire: wards that bucked the trend
Northamptonshire: in 2017, 113 ward results beat the expected swing and 86 trailed it. The biggest gap was Liberal Democrats in Braunston and Crick (+25.1 pts actual vs +2.6 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Braunston and Crick | Liberal Democrats | +25.1 pts | +2.6 pts | +22.5 pts |
| 2017 | Dallington Spencer | Liberal Democrats | -18.5 pts | +2.6 pts | -21.1 pts |
| 2017 | Desborough | Labour | +19.5 pts | -1.0 pts | +20.5 pts |
| 2017 | Dallington Spencer | Labour | +19.4 pts | -1.0 pts | +20.4 pts |
| 2017 | Raunds | Labour | -20.2 pts | -1.0 pts | -19.1 pts |
| 2017 | Irthlingborough | Labour | -19.3 pts | -1.0 pts | -18.3 pts |
| 2017 | Abington and Phippsville | Labour | +17.1 pts | -1.0 pts | +18.1 pts |
| 2017 | Abington and Phippsville | Conservative | -2.1 pts | +15.5 pts | -17.6 pts |
| 2017 | Bugbrooke | Conservative | +33.0 pts | +15.5 pts | +17.4 pts |
| 2017 | Brackley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -33.9 pts | -16.9 pts | -17.0 pts |
| 2017 | Duston West and St Crispin | Conservative | -0.9 pts | +15.5 pts | -16.4 pts |
| 2017 | Hackleton and Grange Park | Conservative | +31.8 pts | +15.5 pts | +16.2 pts |
| 2017 | Corby Rural | Liberal Democrats | -13.4 pts | +2.6 pts | -16.0 pts |
| 2017 | Corby Rural | Labour | +13.8 pts | -1.0 pts | +14.8 pts |
| 2017 | Duston East | Labour | +13.0 pts | -1.0 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2017 | Abington and Phippsville | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -3.2 pts | -16.9 pts | +13.7 pts |
| 2017 | Brackley | Conservative | +29.2 pts | +15.5 pts | +13.6 pts |
| 2017 | Thrapston | Conservative | +28.9 pts | +15.5 pts | +13.4 pts |
| 2017 | Irthlingborough | Conservative | +2.3 pts | +15.5 pts | -13.3 pts |
| 2017 | Northall | Conservative | +2.9 pts | +15.5 pts | -12.6 pts |
| 2017 | Kingsthorpe South | Liberal Democrats | -10.0 pts | +2.6 pts | -12.6 pts |
| 2017 | Delapre and Rushmere | Liberal Democrats | -9.5 pts | +2.6 pts | -12.1 pts |
| 2017 | Delapre and Rushmere | Conservative | +4.3 pts | +15.5 pts | -11.3 pts |
| 2017 | Deanshanger | Conservative | +4.9 pts | +15.5 pts | -10.7 pts |
| 2017 | Headlands | Conservative | +5.1 pts | +15.5 pts | -10.4 pts |
| 2017 | Oakley | Liberal Democrats | +12.9 pts | +2.6 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2017 | Dallington Spencer | Conservative | +5.3 pts | +15.5 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2017 | Thrapston | Independent | -11.4 pts | -1.3 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2017 | Moulton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -27.0 pts | -16.9 pts | -10.1 pts |
| 2017 | Irchester | Labour | -10.8 pts | -1.0 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2017 | Abington and Phippsville | Liberal Democrats | -7.0 pts | +2.6 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2017 | Ise | Conservative | +6.0 pts | +15.5 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2017 | Northall | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.7 pts | -16.9 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2017 | Delapre and Rushmere | Labour | +8.1 pts | -1.0 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2017 | Kingsthorpe South | Labour | +8.1 pts | -1.0 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2017 | Headlands | Liberal Democrats | +11.6 pts | +2.6 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2017 | Daventry West | Labour | +7.9 pts | -1.0 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2017 | Duston West and St Crispin | Liberal Democrats | -6.2 pts | +2.6 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2017 | Braunston and Crick | Labour | -9.7 pts | -1.0 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2017 | Rothwell and Mawsley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -25.4 pts | -16.9 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2017 | Earls Barton | Conservative | +24.0 pts | +15.5 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2017 | Corby Rural | Conservative | +24.0 pts | +15.5 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2017 | Desborough | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.4 pts | -16.9 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2017 | Sixfields | Labour | +7.0 pts | -1.0 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2017 | Wicksteed | Conservative | +7.5 pts | +15.5 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2017 | Rothwell and Mawsley | Conservative | +23.4 pts | +15.5 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2017 | Oundle | Labour | +6.8 pts | -1.0 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2017 | Daventry West | Conservative | +7.8 pts | +15.5 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2017 | Middleton Cheney | Conservative | +23.3 pts | +15.5 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2017 | Silverstone | Conservative | +23.1 pts | +15.5 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2017 | Billing and Rectory Farm | Labour | +6.4 pts | -1.0 pts | +7.4 pts |
| 2017 | Burton and Broughton | Independent | -8.6 pts | -1.3 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2017 | Raunds | Conservative | +8.3 pts | +15.5 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2017 | Talavera | Conservative | +8.4 pts | +15.5 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2017 | Lloyds | Labour | +6.1 pts | -1.0 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2017 | Moulton | Conservative | +22.5 pts | +15.5 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2017 | Duston East | Conservative | +8.7 pts | +15.5 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2017 | Castle | Conservative | +8.7 pts | +15.5 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2017 | Middleton Cheney | Labour | +5.8 pts | -1.0 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2017 | Kingsthorpe South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -10.1 pts | -16.9 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2017 | St George | Conservative | +8.7 pts | +15.5 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2017 | Wicksteed | Liberal Democrats | +9.4 pts | +2.6 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2017 | Billing and Rectory Farm | Liberal Democrats | -4.1 pts | +2.6 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2017 | Headlands | Labour | +5.6 pts | -1.0 pts | +6.6 pts |
| 2017 | Daventry East | Labour | +5.5 pts | -1.0 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2017 | Dallington Spencer | Green | -6.2 pts | +0.3 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2017 | Irchester | Conservative | +21.9 pts | +15.5 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2017 | Desborough | Liberal Democrats | +8.8 pts | +2.6 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2017 | Oakley | Labour | -7.2 pts | -1.0 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2017 | Burton and Broughton | Conservative | +9.4 pts | +15.5 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2017 | Silverstone | Liberal Democrats | +8.6 pts | +2.6 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2017 | Nene Valley | Conservative | +21.4 pts | +15.5 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2017 | Earls Barton | Labour | +4.8 pts | -1.0 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2017 | Burton and Broughton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.1 pts | -16.9 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2017 | Riverside Park | Liberal Democrats | +8.3 pts | +2.6 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2017 | Oundle | Conservative | +9.8 pts | +15.5 pts | -5.7 pts |
| 2017 | Higham Ferrers | Labour | +4.5 pts | -1.0 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2017 | Billing and Rectory Farm | Conservative | +10.1 pts | +15.5 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2017 | Woodford and Weedon | Labour | +4.3 pts | -1.0 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2017 | Talavera | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -11.6 pts | -16.9 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2017 | Abington and Phippsville | Green | -4.8 pts | +0.3 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2017 | Wicksteed | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -21.9 pts | -16.9 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2017 | Rothwell and Mawsley | Labour | -6.0 pts | -1.0 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2017 | Hackleton and Grange Park | Liberal Democrats | +7.5 pts | +2.6 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2017 | Nene Valley | Labour | +3.6 pts | -1.0 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2017 | Towcester and Roade | Labour | +3.6 pts | -1.0 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2017 | Hatton Park | Conservative | +20.1 pts | +15.5 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2017 | Billing and Rectory Farm | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.3 pts | -16.9 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2017 | Deanshanger | Labour | -5.5 pts | -1.0 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2017 | Finedon | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -21.3 pts | -16.9 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2017 | Long Buckby | Labour | +3.3 pts | -1.0 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2017 | Higham Ferrers | Liberal Democrats | +6.8 pts | +2.6 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2017 | Bugbrooke | Labour | -5.1 pts | -1.0 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2017 | St George | Liberal Democrats | -1.5 pts | +2.6 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2017 | Long Buckby | Conservative | +11.6 pts | +15.5 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2017 | Nene Valley | Liberal Democrats | +6.5 pts | +2.6 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2017 | Kingsthorpe North | Labour | -4.9 pts | -1.0 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2017 | Burton and Broughton | Liberal Democrats | +6.4 pts | +2.6 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2017 | Riverside Park | Labour | -4.8 pts | -1.0 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2017 | Middleton Cheney | Liberal Democrats | +6.2 pts | +2.6 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2017 | Moulton | Labour | -4.6 pts | -1.0 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2017 | Bugbrooke | Liberal Democrats | -1.0 pts | +2.6 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2017 | Brickhill and Queensway | Labour | +2.5 pts | -1.0 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2017 | Daventry West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -20.4 pts | -16.9 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2017 | Brixworth | Liberal Democrats | +6.1 pts | +2.6 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2017 | Finedon | Labour | +2.5 pts | -1.0 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2017 | Thrapston | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -20.3 pts | -16.9 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2017 | Long Buckby | Liberal Democrats | +5.9 pts | +2.6 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2017 | Woodford and Weedon | Liberal Democrats | +5.9 pts | +2.6 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2017 | Duston West and St Crispin | Labour | -4.2 pts | -1.0 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2017 | Nene Valley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -13.7 pts | -16.9 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2017 | Brickhill and Queensway | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -20.0 pts | -16.9 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2017 | Corby West | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | +2.6 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2017 | Kingsthorpe North | Conservative | +12.5 pts | +15.5 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2017 | Earls Barton | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | +2.6 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2017 | East Hunsbury and Shelfleys | Conservative | +18.5 pts | +15.5 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2017 | Clover Hill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.0 pts | -16.9 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2017 | East Hunsbury and Shelfleys | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -19.7 pts | -16.9 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2017 | Hatton Park | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -19.7 pts | -16.9 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2017 | Hackleton and Grange Park | Labour | +1.8 pts | -1.0 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2017 | Thrapston | Liberal Democrats | +5.4 pts | +2.6 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2017 | Clover Hill | Conservative | +12.8 pts | +15.5 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2017 | Kingsthorpe North | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.2 pts | -16.9 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2017 | Oakley | Conservative | +12.9 pts | +15.5 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2017 | East Hunsbury and Shelfleys | Green | -2.3 pts | +0.3 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2017 | Daventry East | Conservative | +18.2 pts | +15.5 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2017 | Brixworth | Green | -2.3 pts | +0.3 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2017 | Woodford and Weedon | Conservative | +18.1 pts | +15.5 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2017 | Rushden Pemberton West | Labour | -3.6 pts | -1.0 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2017 | Windmill | Conservative | +13.0 pts | +15.5 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2017 | Northall | Labour | +1.5 pts | -1.0 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2017 | Burton and Broughton | Labour | +1.4 pts | -1.0 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2017 | Windmill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.5 pts | -16.9 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2017 | Silverstone | Labour | -3.3 pts | -1.0 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2017 | Wicksteed | Labour | +1.2 pts | -1.0 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2017 | Towcester and Roade | Conservative | +17.7 pts | +15.5 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2017 | Ise | Liberal Democrats | +4.8 pts | +2.6 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2017 | Brixworth | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -19.0 pts | -16.9 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2017 | Daventry West | Liberal Democrats | +4.7 pts | +2.6 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2017 | East Hunsbury and Shelfleys | Labour | +1.1 pts | -1.0 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2017 | Brixworth | Labour | +1.1 pts | -1.0 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2017 | Talavera | Labour | +1.0 pts | -1.0 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2017 | Moulton | Liberal Democrats | +4.6 pts | +2.6 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2017 | Croyland and Swanspool | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.9 pts | -16.9 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2017 | Deanshanger | Liberal Democrats | +0.6 pts | +2.6 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2017 | Windmill | Labour | +0.9 pts | -1.0 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2017 | Windmill | Liberal Democrats | +0.7 pts | +2.6 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2017 | Duston East | Liberal Democrats | +0.7 pts | +2.6 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2017 | Thrapston | Labour | +0.8 pts | -1.0 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2017 | St George | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.1 pts | -16.9 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2017 | Ise | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.2 pts | -16.9 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2017 | Desborough | Conservative | +13.8 pts | +15.5 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2017 | Brackley | Liberal Democrats | +4.3 pts | +2.6 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2017 | Brickhill and Queensway | Conservative | +17.2 pts | +15.5 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2017 | Corby West | Labour | -2.6 pts | -1.0 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2017 | Boothville and Parklands | Conservative | +17.0 pts | +15.5 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2017 | Brackley | Labour | +0.5 pts | -1.0 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2017 | Finedon | Liberal Democrats | +4.1 pts | +2.6 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2017 | Rushden South | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.5 pts | -16.9 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2017 | Brixworth | Conservative | +14.2 pts | +15.5 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2017 | Riverside Park | Conservative | +14.2 pts | +15.5 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2017 | Rushden South | Conservative | +14.2 pts | +15.5 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2017 | Croyland and Swanspool | Conservative | +16.9 pts | +15.5 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2017 | Headlands | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.6 pts | -16.9 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2017 | Rothwell and Mawsley | Liberal Democrats | +3.8 pts | +2.6 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2017 | Oundle | Liberal Democrats | +3.8 pts | +2.6 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2017 | Boothville and Parklands | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -15.8 pts | -16.9 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2017 | Hatton Park | Liberal Democrats | +3.7 pts | +2.6 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2017 | Lloyds | Liberal Democrats | +1.6 pts | +2.6 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2017 | Rushden Pemberton West | Conservative | +16.6 pts | +15.5 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2017 | Croyland and Swanspool | Labour | -0.0 pts | -1.0 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2017 | Sixfields | Conservative | +14.6 pts | +15.5 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2017 | Corby West | Conservative | +16.5 pts | +15.5 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2017 | Rushden Pemberton West | Liberal Democrats | +3.5 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2017 | Raunds | Liberal Democrats | +3.5 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2017 | Riverside Park | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -17.7 pts | -16.9 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2017 | Hatton Park | Green | +1.1 pts | +0.3 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2017 | Clover Hill | Liberal Democrats | +1.8 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2017 | Higham Ferrers | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.1 pts | -16.9 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2017 | Finedon | Conservative | +14.8 pts | +15.5 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2017 | Northall | Liberal Democrats | +3.3 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2017 | Irchester | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.3 pts | -16.9 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2017 | Lloyds | Conservative | +16.1 pts | +15.5 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2017 | Braunston and Crick | Conservative | +16.1 pts | +15.5 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2017 | Boothville and Parklands | Labour | -1.5 pts | -1.0 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2017 | Kingsthorpe North | Liberal Democrats | +2.1 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2017 | Boothville and Parklands | Liberal Democrats | +3.1 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2017 | Oakley | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -17.4 pts | -16.9 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2017 | Rushden South | Labour | -1.4 pts | -1.0 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2017 | Higham Ferrers | Conservative | +16.0 pts | +15.5 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2017 | Rushden Pemberton West | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -16.5 pts | -16.9 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2017 | Talavera | Liberal Democrats | +2.2 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2017 | Castle | Liberal Democrats | +2.9 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2017 | Towcester and Roade | Liberal Democrats | +2.9 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2017 | Kingsthorpe South | Conservative | +15.8 pts | +15.5 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2017 | Brickhill and Queensway | Green | +0.5 pts | +0.3 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2017 | Rushden South | Liberal Democrats | +2.7 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2017 | Hatton Park | Labour | -1.2 pts | -1.0 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2017 | East Hunsbury and Shelfleys | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.1 pts |