Nottingham: wards that bucked the trend
Nottingham: in 2023, 42 ward results beat the expected swing and 22 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Clifton West (-38.7 pts actual vs -3.0 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Clifton West | Conservative | -38.7 pts | -3.0 pts | -35.7 pts |
| 2023 | Berridge | Labour | +12.1 pts | -10.1 pts | +22.2 pts |
| 2023 | Bilborough | Labour | +8.8 pts | -10.1 pts | +18.9 pts |
| 2023 | Bestwood | Labour | +4.7 pts | -10.1 pts | +14.8 pts |
| 2023 | Wollaton West | Labour | +3.9 pts | -10.1 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2023 | Bulwell | Labour | +3.4 pts | -10.1 pts | +13.5 pts |
| 2023 | Bestwood | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -14.2 pts | -0.8 pts | -13.4 pts |
| 2023 | Leen Valley | Labour | +2.8 pts | -10.1 pts | +12.9 pts |
| 2023 | Castle | Labour | +2.4 pts | -10.1 pts | +12.5 pts |
| 2023 | Lenton & Wollaton East | Labour | +1.6 pts | -10.1 pts | +11.7 pts |
| 2023 | Dales | Labour | +1.5 pts | -10.1 pts | +11.6 pts |
| 2023 | Aspley | Labour | +1.2 pts | -10.1 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2023 | Castle | Liberal Democrats | +9.6 pts | -1.5 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2023 | Clifton West | Labour | +0.7 pts | -10.1 pts | +10.8 pts |
| 2023 | Bulwell Forest | Conservative | +7.6 pts | -3.0 pts | +10.6 pts |
| 2023 | Clifton East | Labour | -1.0 pts | -10.1 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2023 | Castle | Conservative | -11.6 pts | -3.0 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2023 | Aspley | Conservative | +5.5 pts | -3.0 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2023 | Basford | Conservative | -10.7 pts | -3.0 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2023 | Dales | Green | -7.2 pts | -0.0 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2023 | Meadows | Liberal Democrats | -8.7 pts | -1.5 pts | -7.1 pts |
| 2023 | Bilborough | Liberal Democrats | +5.4 pts | -1.5 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2023 | Bulwell | Nottingham Independents | +0.2 pts | +6.9 pts | -6.6 pts |
| 2023 | Meadows | Conservative | +3.4 pts | -3.0 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2023 | Clifton East | Nottingham Independents | +12.7 pts | +6.9 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2023 | Basford | Labour | +4.9 pts | -0.6 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2023 | Bestwood | Conservative | +2.3 pts | -3.0 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2023 | Clifton East | Conservative | +2.0 pts | -3.0 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2023 | Basford | Nottingham Independents | +2.7 pts | +6.9 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2023 | St Ann's | Conservative | +0.9 pts | -3.0 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2023 | Bilborough | Conservative | -6.8 pts | -3.0 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2023 | Hyson Green & Arboretum | Labour | -6.7 pts | -10.1 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2023 | Berridge | Conservative | -6.3 pts | -3.0 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2023 | Radford | Liberal Democrats | -4.8 pts | -1.5 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2023 | Dales | Conservative | +0.2 pts | -3.0 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2023 | St Ann's | Labour | -13.2 pts | -10.1 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2023 | Wollaton West | Liberal Democrats | -4.6 pts | -1.5 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2023 | Hyson Green & Arboretum | Liberal Democrats | -4.5 pts | -1.5 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2023 | Bulwell | Liberal Democrats | +1.4 pts | -1.5 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2023 | Meadows | Labour | -13.0 pts | -10.1 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2023 | Hyson Green & Arboretum | Conservative | -5.8 pts | -3.0 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2023 | Lenton & Wollaton East | Conservative | -0.4 pts | -3.0 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2023 | Radford | Labour | -7.6 pts | -10.1 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2023 | Radford | Conservative | -0.5 pts | -3.0 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2023 | Basford | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | -1.5 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2023 | Basford | Green | +2.2 pts | -0.0 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2023 | Bulwell | Conservative | -5.0 pts | -3.0 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2023 | Castle | Green | +1.9 pts | -0.0 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2023 | Berridge | Green | -1.9 pts | -0.0 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2023 | Dales | Liberal Democrats | +0.2 pts | -1.5 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2023 | Mapperley | Green | -1.7 pts | -0.0 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2023 | Clifton West | Liberal Democrats | -3.1 pts | -1.5 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2023 | Mapperley | Conservative | -1.5 pts | -3.0 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2023 | Mapperley | Liberal Democrats | -3.0 pts | -1.5 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2023 | Clifton East | Liberal Democrats | -0.3 pts | -1.5 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2023 | Leen Valley | Conservative | -1.9 pts | -3.0 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Wollaton West | Conservative | -2.0 pts | -3.0 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2023 | Aspley | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | -1.5 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2023 | Lenton & Wollaton East | Green | +0.6 pts | -0.0 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Leen Valley | Liberal Democrats | -1.0 pts | -1.5 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Meadows | Green | +0.3 pts | -0.0 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2023 | Lenton & Wollaton East | Liberal Democrats | -1.8 pts | -1.5 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2023 | St Ann's | Liberal Democrats | -1.4 pts | -1.5 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2023 | Bestwood | Liberal Democrats | -1.5 pts | -1.5 pts | +0.1 pts |