Nottinghamshire: wards that bucked the trend
Nottinghamshire: in 2021, 70 ward results beat the expected swing and 85 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Selston (+39.1 pts actual vs +4.2 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Selston | Conservative | +39.1 pts | +4.2 pts | +34.9 pts |
| 2021 | Greasley and Brinsley | Conservative | -26.2 pts | +4.2 pts | -30.5 pts |
| 2021 | Hucknall North | Conservative | -25.5 pts | +4.2 pts | -29.7 pts |
| 2021 | Kirkby North | Conservative | -23.0 pts | +4.2 pts | -27.2 pts |
| 2021 | Mansfield South | Independent | +28.7 pts | +2.5 pts | +26.2 pts |
| 2021 | West Bridgford West | Conservative | -20.2 pts | +4.2 pts | -24.5 pts |
| 2021 | Kirkby North | Labour | -29.5 pts | -5.3 pts | -24.2 pts |
| 2021 | Hucknall South | Conservative | -19.5 pts | +4.2 pts | -23.7 pts |
| 2021 | Eastwood | Labour | +18.3 pts | -5.3 pts | +23.6 pts |
| 2021 | West Bridgford West | Labour | +18.1 pts | -5.3 pts | +23.5 pts |
| 2021 | Newark East | Conservative | -18.3 pts | +4.2 pts | -22.5 pts |
| 2021 | Warsop | Labour | -26.6 pts | -5.3 pts | -21.3 pts |
| 2021 | Hucknall West | Conservative | -16.5 pts | +4.2 pts | -20.7 pts |
| 2021 | Mansfield North | Conservative | +24.0 pts | +4.2 pts | +19.8 pts |
| 2021 | Leake and Ruddington | Labour | +14.0 pts | -5.3 pts | +19.3 pts |
| 2021 | Eastwood | Liberal Democrats | -21.2 pts | -1.9 pts | -19.3 pts |
| 2021 | Mansfield South | Conservative | +23.0 pts | +4.2 pts | +18.8 pts |
| 2021 | Worksop North | Conservative | +21.5 pts | +4.2 pts | +17.3 pts |
| 2021 | Blidworth | Independent | +19.8 pts | +2.5 pts | +17.3 pts |
| 2021 | Newark West | Conservative | -12.6 pts | +4.2 pts | -16.9 pts |
| 2021 | Worksop East | Conservative | +21.0 pts | +4.2 pts | +16.8 pts |
| 2021 | Blyth and Harworth | Conservative | +20.8 pts | +4.2 pts | +16.6 pts |
| 2021 | Hucknall West | Labour | -21.1 pts | -5.3 pts | -15.7 pts |
| 2021 | Blidworth | Labour | -20.6 pts | -5.3 pts | -15.3 pts |
| 2021 | Collingham | Independent | -12.5 pts | +2.5 pts | -15.0 pts |
| 2021 | Stapleford and Broxtowe Central | Labour | +8.7 pts | -5.3 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2021 | Toton, Chilwell and Attenborough | Labour | +8.7 pts | -5.3 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2021 | Warsop | Conservative | +18.2 pts | +4.2 pts | +14.0 pts |
| 2021 | Nuthall and Kimberley | Conservative | -9.6 pts | +4.2 pts | -13.8 pts |
| 2021 | West Bridgford North | Green | +16.4 pts | +2.6 pts | +13.8 pts |
| 2021 | Stapleford and Broxtowe Central | Conservative | -8.5 pts | +4.2 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2021 | Mansfield North | Labour | -18.0 pts | -5.3 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2021 | Worksop South | Conservative | +16.7 pts | +4.2 pts | +12.5 pts |
| 2021 | Arnold North | Labour | +7.1 pts | -5.3 pts | +12.5 pts |
| 2021 | Misterton | Conservative | +16.6 pts | +4.2 pts | +12.4 pts |
| 2021 | Farndon and Trent | Labour | +6.9 pts | -5.3 pts | +12.2 pts |
| 2021 | Southwell | Labour | +6.7 pts | -5.3 pts | +12.0 pts |
| 2021 | Hucknall North | Labour | -17.3 pts | -5.3 pts | -12.0 pts |
| 2021 | Leake and Ruddington | Conservative | -7.7 pts | +4.2 pts | -11.9 pts |
| 2021 | Hucknall South | Labour | -16.3 pts | -5.3 pts | -11.0 pts |
| 2021 | Worksop East | Labour | -15.7 pts | -5.3 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2021 | Radcliffe on Trent | Labour | +4.8 pts | -5.3 pts | +10.2 pts |
| 2021 | Mansfield East | Labour | -15.2 pts | -5.3 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2021 | Worksop North | Labour | -15.2 pts | -5.3 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2021 | Bingham East | Conservative | -5.3 pts | +4.2 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2021 | Tuxford | Conservative | -5.3 pts | +4.2 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2021 | Nuthall and Kimberley | Green | -6.9 pts | +2.6 pts | -9.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bingham East | Green | +11.7 pts | +2.6 pts | +9.1 pts |
| 2021 | Sutton West | Conservative | +13.3 pts | +4.2 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2021 | Southwell | Conservative | -4.4 pts | +4.2 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2021 | Balderton | Conservative | -4.4 pts | +4.2 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2021 | West Bridgford North | Conservative | -4.3 pts | +4.2 pts | -8.5 pts |
| 2021 | Beeston Central and Rylands | Conservative | -4.1 pts | +4.2 pts | -8.3 pts |
| 2021 | Keyworth | Labour | +2.7 pts | -5.3 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2021 | Muskham and Farnsfield | Conservative | -3.7 pts | +4.2 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2021 | Arnold North | Conservative | -3.7 pts | +4.2 pts | -7.9 pts |
| 2021 | Calverton | Labour | -13.2 pts | -5.3 pts | -7.8 pts |
| 2021 | Radcliffe on Trent | Conservative | -3.5 pts | +4.2 pts | -7.7 pts |
| 2021 | Farndon and Trent | Conservative | -3.4 pts | +4.2 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2021 | Toton, Chilwell and Attenborough | Conservative | -3.3 pts | +4.2 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2021 | Bramcote and Beeston North | Conservative | +11.7 pts | +4.2 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2021 | Mansfield West | Conservative | +11.4 pts | +4.2 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2021 | Worksop South | Labour | -12.5 pts | -5.3 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2021 | Sutton Central and East | Labour | -12.3 pts | -5.3 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2021 | Tuxford | Labour | +1.6 pts | -5.3 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2021 | Carlton East | Labour | +1.6 pts | -5.3 pts | +6.9 pts |
| 2021 | Retford West | Liberal Democrats | +4.9 pts | -1.9 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2021 | Calverton | Liberal Democrats | -8.3 pts | -1.9 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Bingham East | Independent | +8.7 pts | +2.5 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bingham West | Labour | +0.8 pts | -5.3 pts | +6.1 pts |
| 2021 | Newstead | Labour | +0.7 pts | -5.3 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Beeston Central and Rylands | Labour | +0.3 pts | -5.3 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2021 | Sutton West | Labour | +0.2 pts | -5.3 pts | +5.6 pts |
| 2021 | Greasley and Brinsley | Green | -2.9 pts | +2.6 pts | -5.5 pts |
| 2021 | West Bridgford South | Labour | +0.1 pts | -5.3 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bramcote and Beeston North | Liberal Democrats | -7.3 pts | -1.9 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2021 | Carlton West | Labour | +0.0 pts | -5.3 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2021 | Retford West | Conservative | -1.0 pts | +4.2 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2021 | Blyth and Harworth | Liberal Democrats | -7.1 pts | -1.9 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2021 | Sutton North | Labour | -10.5 pts | -5.3 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2021 | Newstead | Conservative | -1.0 pts | +4.2 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2021 | Ashfields | Labour | -10.4 pts | -5.3 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2021 | Retford East | Labour | -0.4 pts | -5.3 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2021 | Leake and Ruddington | Green | -2.4 pts | +2.6 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2021 | Greasley and Brinsley | Labour | -10.3 pts | -5.3 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2021 | West Bridgford South | Liberal Democrats | -6.4 pts | -1.9 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2021 | West Bridgford South | Conservative | -0.1 pts | +4.2 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2021 | Worksop West | Liberal Democrats | -6.2 pts | -1.9 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2021 | West Bridgford South | Green | +6.5 pts | +2.6 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2021 | Keyworth | Liberal Democrats | -5.7 pts | -1.9 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2021 | Newark East | Labour | -9.0 pts | -5.3 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Nuthall and Kimberley | Labour | -1.6 pts | -5.3 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Eastwood | Conservative | +7.9 pts | +4.2 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Newark West | Labour | -9.0 pts | -5.3 pts | -3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Newstead | Liberal Democrats | +1.7 pts | -1.9 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Keyworth | Green | +5.8 pts | +2.6 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2021 | Beeston Central and Rylands | Green | +5.8 pts | +2.6 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2021 | Arnold South | Liberal Democrats | +1.1 pts | -1.9 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2021 | Blidworth | Conservative | +1.2 pts | +4.2 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2021 | Cotgrave | Conservative | +1.2 pts | +4.2 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2021 | West Bridgford North | Liberal Democrats | -4.8 pts | -1.9 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Carlton West | Liberal Democrats | +0.9 pts | -1.9 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Selston | Labour | -2.5 pts | -5.3 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Stapleford and Broxtowe Central | Liberal Democrats | -4.5 pts | -1.9 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Mansfield South | Labour | -2.9 pts | -5.3 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Tuxford | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | -1.9 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Keyworth | Conservative | +1.8 pts | +4.2 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Cotgrave | Liberal Democrats | -4.2 pts | -1.9 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2021 | Kirkby South | Labour | -3.1 pts | -5.3 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Arnold North | Green | +0.5 pts | +2.6 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Leake and Ruddington | Liberal Democrats | -3.9 pts | -1.9 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Collingham | Conservative | +2.3 pts | +4.2 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Arnold South | Labour | -3.4 pts | -5.3 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2021 | West Bridgford North | Labour | -7.2 pts | -5.3 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Southwell | Liberal Democrats | -3.6 pts | -1.9 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Worksop East | Liberal Democrats | -0.3 pts | -1.9 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Hucknall North | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | -1.9 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Toton, Chilwell and Attenborough | Green | +1.0 pts | +2.6 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Cotgrave | Labour | -3.8 pts | -5.3 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | West Bridgford West | Green | +4.1 pts | +2.6 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Radcliffe on Trent | Green | +1.0 pts | +2.6 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Farndon and Trent | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | -1.9 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Mansfield South | Liberal Democrats | -0.4 pts | -1.9 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Ollerton | Labour | -6.8 pts | -5.3 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Stapleford and Broxtowe Central | Independent | +3.9 pts | +2.5 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Ollerton | Conservative | +2.8 pts | +4.2 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Arnold North | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | -1.9 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Bingham West | Conservative | +2.9 pts | +4.2 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Retford West | Labour | -6.6 pts | -5.3 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Newstead | Green | +3.9 pts | +2.6 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Carlton East | Conservative | +3.0 pts | +4.2 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Muskham and Farnsfield | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | -1.9 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Carlton West | Conservative | +3.0 pts | +4.2 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Carlton East | Liberal Democrats | -3.0 pts | -1.9 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Worksop North | Liberal Democrats | -1.0 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Misterton | Liberal Democrats | -1.0 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Balderton | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Muskham and Farnsfield | Green | +3.4 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Arnold South | Conservative | +3.4 pts | +4.2 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Mansfield North | TUSC | -0.8 pts | +0.0 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Bramcote and Beeston North | Labour | -4.6 pts | -5.3 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Carlton West | Green | +1.8 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Hucknall South | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Retford East | Conservative | +4.9 pts | +4.2 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Ashfields | Conservative | +3.7 pts | +4.2 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Radcliffe on Trent | Liberal Democrats | -2.4 pts | -1.9 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Retford East | Liberal Democrats | -1.6 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Eastwood | Green | +2.2 pts | +2.6 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Arnold South | Green | +2.8 pts | +2.6 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Calverton | Conservative | +4.0 pts | +4.2 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Balderton | Labour | -5.5 pts | -5.3 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Toton, Chilwell and Attenborough | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | -1.9 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Ollerton | Liberal Democrats | -1.8 pts | -1.9 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Beeston Central and Rylands | Liberal Democrats | -2.0 pts | -1.9 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2021 | West Bridgford West | Liberal Democrats | -2.0 pts | -1.9 pts | -0.1 pts |