Nuneaton and Bedworth: wards that bucked the trend
Nuneaton and Bedworth: in 2022, 25 ward results beat the expected swing and 23 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Poplar (-36.8 pts actual vs -12.1 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Poplar | Conservative | -36.8 pts | -12.1 pts | -24.7 pts |
| 2022 | Attleborough | Conservative | +4.6 pts | -12.1 pts | +16.7 pts |
| 2022 | Bede | Conservative | -27.5 pts | -12.1 pts | -15.5 pts |
| 2022 | Bede | Labour | +22.4 pts | +11.1 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2022 | Weddington | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -12.1 pts | +9.8 pts |
| 2022 | Arbury | Labour | +19.1 pts | +11.1 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2022 | Attleborough | Green | +7.5 pts | -0.2 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2022 | Galley Common | Labour | +3.6 pts | +11.1 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2022 | St Nicolas | Conservative | -4.7 pts | -12.1 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2022 | Galley Common | Conservative | -5.4 pts | -12.1 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2022 | St Nicolas | Labour | +4.6 pts | +11.1 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2022 | Heath | Labour | +4.8 pts | +11.1 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2022 | Slough | Conservative | -5.9 pts | -12.1 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2022 | Whitestone | Conservative | -6.2 pts | -12.1 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2022 | Weddington | Labour | +5.9 pts | +11.1 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2022 | Exhall | Labour | +6.6 pts | +11.1 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2022 | Slough | Labour | +6.7 pts | +11.1 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2022 | Camp Hill | Labour | +15.1 pts | +11.1 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2022 | Bar Pool | Conservative | -8.2 pts | -12.1 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2022 | Wem Brook | Conservative | -8.2 pts | -12.1 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Whitestone | Labour | +7.3 pts | +11.1 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2022 | Arbury | Green | +3.3 pts | -0.2 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2022 | Arbury | Conservative | -8.6 pts | -12.1 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2022 | Weddington | Green | -3.6 pts | -0.2 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2022 | Wem Brook | Green | -3.4 pts | -0.2 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2022 | Poplar | Labour | +8.0 pts | +11.1 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2022 | Bar Pool | Green | +2.8 pts | -0.2 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Bulkington | Conservative | -9.1 pts | -12.1 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Abbey | Green | -3.1 pts | -0.2 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2022 | Camp Hill | Green | -2.9 pts | -0.2 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Abbey | Conservative | -9.3 pts | -12.1 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2022 | Attleborough | Labour | +13.7 pts | +11.1 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2022 | Bar Pool | Labour | +8.6 pts | +11.1 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2022 | Heath | Conservative | -14.2 pts | -12.1 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2022 | Bulkington | Labour | +9.1 pts | +11.1 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2022 | Galley Common | Green | +1.7 pts | -0.2 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2022 | Camp Hill | TUSC | +1.5 pts | +0.1 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2022 | Abbey | Labour | +12.5 pts | +11.1 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2022 | Wem Brook | Labour | +9.8 pts | +11.1 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2022 | Exhall | Green | +1.0 pts | -0.2 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2022 | Exhall | Conservative | -13.1 pts | -12.1 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Whitestone | Green | -1.1 pts | -0.2 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2022 | Slough | TUSC | -0.6 pts | +0.1 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2022 | Camp Hill | Conservative | -12.4 pts | -12.1 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2022 | St Nicolas | Green | +0.1 pts | -0.2 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2022 | Poplar | Green | +0.0 pts | -0.2 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2022 | Exhall | TUSC | +0.2 pts | +0.1 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2022 | Slough | Green | -0.3 pts | -0.2 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2021 | Camp Hill | Conservative | +32.2 pts | +9.0 pts | +23.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bar Pool | Labour | -34.0 pts | -13.3 pts | -20.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bar Pool | Conservative | +28.6 pts | +9.0 pts | +19.6 pts |
| 2021 | Poplar | Labour | -30.9 pts | -13.3 pts | -17.6 pts |
| 2021 | Attleborough | Conservative | -8.5 pts | +9.0 pts | -17.5 pts |
| 2021 | Poplar | Conservative | +23.9 pts | +9.0 pts | +14.9 pts |
| 2021 | Whitestone | Conservative | -4.6 pts | +9.0 pts | -13.6 pts |
| 2021 | St Nicolas | Labour | -1.1 pts | -13.3 pts | +12.3 pts |
| 2021 | Weddington | Conservative | -1.4 pts | +9.0 pts | -10.3 pts |
| 2021 | St Nicolas | Conservative | -0.1 pts | +9.0 pts | -9.1 pts |
| 2021 | Weddington | Labour | -4.4 pts | -13.3 pts | +8.9 pts |
| 2021 | Wem Brook | Conservative | +17.7 pts | +9.0 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2021 | Slough | Conservative | +0.4 pts | +9.0 pts | -8.6 pts |
| 2021 | Galley Common | Conservative | +0.8 pts | +9.0 pts | -8.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bede | Conservative | +17.1 pts | +9.0 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2021 | Arbury | Labour | -20.7 pts | -13.3 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2021 | Attleborough | Green | -2.3 pts | +5.0 pts | -7.3 pts |
| 2021 | Whitestone | Labour | -6.8 pts | -13.3 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2021 | Abbey | Conservative | +15.5 pts | +9.0 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2021 | Abbey | Labour | -7.2 pts | -13.3 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bede | Labour | -7.3 pts | -13.3 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Exhall | Labour | -7.8 pts | -13.3 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2021 | Arbury | Green | -0.4 pts | +5.0 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2021 | Slough | Labour | -8.7 pts | -13.3 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bulkington | Labour | -9.0 pts | -13.3 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2021 | Galley Common | Labour | -9.2 pts | -13.3 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2021 | St Nicolas | Green | +1.2 pts | +5.0 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2021 | Wem Brook | Labour | -9.7 pts | -13.3 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Bar Pool | Green | +2.2 pts | +5.0 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Arbury | Independent | -1.1 pts | +1.7 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Heath | Labour | -10.7 pts | -13.3 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2021 | Abbey | Green | +7.2 pts | +5.0 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Camp Hill | Labour | -11.6 pts | -13.3 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Heath | Conservative | +10.7 pts | +9.0 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Exhall | Green | +3.3 pts | +5.0 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Attleborough | Labour | -15.0 pts | -13.3 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2021 | Wem Brook | Green | +6.5 pts | +5.0 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Exhall | Conservative | +10.4 pts | +9.0 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Arbury | Conservative | +10.0 pts | +9.0 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Exhall | TUSC | +1.2 pts | +0.2 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Weddington | Green | +5.8 pts | +5.0 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Bulkington | Conservative | +9.0 pts | +9.0 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2016 | Slough | Labour | -27.6 pts | -1.8 pts | -25.8 pts |
| 2016 | Weddington | Green | +16.8 pts | +4.3 pts | +12.5 pts |
| 2016 | Wem Brook | Labour | +8.7 pts | -1.8 pts | +10.5 pts |
| 2016 | Galley Common | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | +6.5 pts | -2.7 pts | +9.2 pts |
| 2016 | Bede | English Democrats Party - Putting England First | -9.5 pts | -0.6 pts | -8.9 pts |
| 2016 | Arbury | Conservative | +10.7 pts | +2.4 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2016 | Bulkington | Labour | +4.9 pts | -1.8 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2016 | St Nicolas | Green | +10.7 pts | +4.3 pts | +6.4 pts |
| 2016 | Galley Common | Labour | -8.1 pts | -1.8 pts | -6.3 pts |
| 2016 | Arbury | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.9 pts | -2.7 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2016 | Attleborough | Conservative | +8.0 pts | +2.4 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2016 | Whitestone | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -8.3 pts | -2.7 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2016 | Bar Pool | Labour | +3.5 pts | -1.8 pts | +5.4 pts |
| 2016 | Bar Pool | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -7.6 pts | -2.7 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2016 | Heath | Labour | -6.5 pts | -1.8 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2016 | Attleborough | Green | -0.4 pts | +4.3 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2016 | Arbury | Green | +0.5 pts | +4.3 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2016 | Wem Brook | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.4 pts | -2.7 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2016 | Poplar | Conservative | -1.4 pts | +2.4 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2016 | Attleborough | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -6.4 pts | -2.7 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2016 | Bar Pool | Conservative | +5.9 pts | +2.4 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2016 | Bulkington | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.9 pts | -2.7 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2016 | Abbey | Green | +1.1 pts | +4.3 pts | -3.2 pts |
| 2016 | Poplar | Labour | +1.4 pts | -1.8 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2016 | Camp Hill | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.8 pts | -2.7 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2016 | Whitestone | Conservative | +5.3 pts | +2.4 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2016 | Weddington | Labour | +1.0 pts | -1.8 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2016 | Wem Brook | Green | +1.5 pts | +4.3 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2016 | Wem Brook | Conservative | -0.3 pts | +2.4 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2016 | Weddington | Conservative | -0.3 pts | +2.4 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2016 | Attleborough | Labour | +0.7 pts | -1.8 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2016 | Exhall | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.2 pts | -2.7 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2016 | Galley Common | Conservative | -0.1 pts | +2.4 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2016 | Abbey | Labour | +0.7 pts | -1.8 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2016 | Arbury | Labour | +0.6 pts | -1.8 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2016 | Abbey | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.1 pts | -2.7 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2016 | Exhall | Labour | +0.5 pts | -1.8 pts | +2.3 pts |
| 2016 | Exhall | Green | +2.0 pts | +4.3 pts | -2.3 pts |
| 2016 | St Nicolas | Conservative | +4.4 pts | +2.4 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2016 | St Nicolas | Labour | +0.1 pts | -1.8 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2016 | Exhall | Conservative | +0.4 pts | +2.4 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2016 | Exhall | TUSC | +0.4 pts | -1.3 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2016 | Bede | Labour | -0.2 pts | -1.8 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2016 | Bulkington | Conservative | +1.0 pts | +2.4 pts | -1.4 pts |
| 2016 | Heath | Conservative | +3.5 pts | +2.4 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2016 | Abbey | Conservative | +3.4 pts | +2.4 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2016 | Slough | Conservative | +1.3 pts | +2.4 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2016 | Bede | Conservative | +1.4 pts | +2.4 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2016 | Whitestone | Labour | -2.2 pts | -1.8 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2016 | Attleborough | English Democrats Party - Putting England First | -0.8 pts | -0.6 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2016 | Camp Hill | Labour | -1.6 pts | -1.8 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2016 | Camp Hill | Conservative | +2.2 pts | +2.4 pts | -0.2 pts |