Oxford: wards that bucked the trend
Oxford: in 2024, 50 ward results beat the expected swing and 35 trailed it. The biggest gap was Labour in Marston (+56.3 pts actual vs -14.9 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Marston | Labour | +56.3 pts | -14.9 pts | +71.2 pts |
| 2024 | Walton Manor | Liberal Democrats | -27.5 pts | -1.6 pts | -25.9 pts |
| 2024 | Cowley | Liberal Democrats | +19.9 pts | -1.6 pts | +21.5 pts |
| 2024 | Osney and St Thomas | Labour | +5.4 pts | -14.9 pts | +20.3 pts |
| 2024 | Headington Hill and Northway | Labour | +5.1 pts | -14.9 pts | +20.0 pts |
| 2024 | Cutteslowe and Sunnymead | Labour | +3.5 pts | -14.9 pts | +18.4 pts |
| 2024 | Wolvercote | Labour | +2.0 pts | -14.9 pts | +16.9 pts |
| 2024 | Headington | Labour | -31.5 pts | -14.9 pts | -16.6 pts |
| 2024 | Blackbird Leys | Labour | -30.1 pts | -14.9 pts | -15.2 pts |
| 2024 | St Clement's | Green | +12.3 pts | -1.4 pts | +13.8 pts |
| 2024 | Osney and St Thomas | Green | -15.1 pts | -1.4 pts | -13.6 pts |
| 2024 | Lye Valley | Labour | -1.4 pts | -14.9 pts | +13.5 pts |
| 2024 | Littlemore | Labour | -1.9 pts | -14.9 pts | +13.0 pts |
| 2024 | St Mary's | Labour | -2.0 pts | -14.9 pts | +12.9 pts |
| 2024 | Cutteslowe and Sunnymead | Liberal Democrats | -13.6 pts | -1.6 pts | -12.1 pts |
| 2024 | Headington Hill and Northway | Conservative | +10.8 pts | -0.9 pts | +11.6 pts |
| 2024 | Quarry and Risinghurst | Liberal Democrats | +9.8 pts | -1.6 pts | +11.4 pts |
| 2024 | Northfield Brook | Labour | -26.3 pts | -14.9 pts | -11.4 pts |
| 2024 | Holywell | Green | +9.7 pts | -1.4 pts | +11.2 pts |
| 2024 | Donnington | Green | +9.0 pts | -1.4 pts | +10.5 pts |
| 2024 | Headington Hill and Northway | Green | +8.6 pts | -1.4 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2024 | Rose Hill and Iffley | Labour | -5.3 pts | -14.9 pts | +9.6 pts |
| 2024 | Summertown | Conservative | +7.9 pts | -0.9 pts | +8.8 pts |
| 2024 | Walton Manor | Green | +7.1 pts | -1.4 pts | +8.5 pts |
| 2024 | Churchill | Labour | -6.5 pts | -14.9 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2024 | Summertown | Green | +6.7 pts | -1.4 pts | +8.1 pts |
| 2024 | Temple Cowley | Independent | +2.6 pts | -5.3 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2024 | Cutteslowe and Sunnymead | Conservative | +6.8 pts | -0.9 pts | +7.7 pts |
| 2024 | Headington Hill and Northway | Liberal Democrats | +5.5 pts | -1.6 pts | +7.1 pts |
| 2024 | Headington | Liberal Democrats | +4.6 pts | -1.6 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2024 | Northfield Brook | Conservative | -7.0 pts | -0.9 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2024 | Marston | Liberal Democrats | +4.2 pts | -1.6 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2024 | Summertown | Liberal Democrats | +4.1 pts | -1.6 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2024 | Barton and Sandhills | Conservative | -6.2 pts | -0.9 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2024 | Hinksey Park | Liberal Democrats | -6.4 pts | -1.6 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2024 | Osney and St Thomas | Conservative | +3.9 pts | -0.9 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2024 | Quarry and Risinghurst | Conservative | -5.6 pts | -0.9 pts | -4.8 pts |
| 2024 | Cutteslowe and Sunnymead | Green | +3.3 pts | -1.4 pts | +4.7 pts |
| 2024 | Cowley | Labour | -19.4 pts | -14.9 pts | -4.5 pts |
| 2024 | Headington | Green | +3.0 pts | -1.4 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2024 | Blackbird Leys | Liberal Democrats | -6.0 pts | -1.6 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2024 | Rose Hill and Iffley | Green | -5.7 pts | -1.4 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2024 | Hinksey Park | Labour | -10.9 pts | -14.9 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2024 | Wolvercote | Liberal Democrats | -5.5 pts | -1.6 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2024 | Summertown | Labour | -18.7 pts | -14.9 pts | -3.8 pts |
| 2024 | Wolvercote | Conservative | +2.8 pts | -0.9 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2024 | Lye Valley | Conservative | -4.4 pts | -0.9 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2024 | Churchill | Conservative | +2.4 pts | -0.9 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2024 | Holywell | Labour | -11.7 pts | -14.9 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2024 | Walton Manor | Conservative | +2.0 pts | -0.9 pts | +2.9 pts |
| 2024 | Cowley | Green | -4.3 pts | -1.4 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2024 | St Mary's | Green | +1.3 pts | -1.4 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2024 | Donnington | Labour | -17.6 pts | -14.9 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2024 | Carfax and Jericho | Green | +1.1 pts | -1.4 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2024 | Temple Cowley | Green | +1.0 pts | -1.4 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Rose Hill and Iffley | Conservative | -3.3 pts | -0.9 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2024 | Holywell | Liberal Democrats | -4.0 pts | -1.6 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2024 | Cowley | Conservative | -3.1 pts | -0.9 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2024 | Wolvercote | Green | +0.7 pts | -1.4 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2024 | Donnington | Conservative | +1.2 pts | -0.9 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2024 | Donnington | Liberal Democrats | +0.5 pts | -1.6 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2024 | Barton and Sandhills | Labour | -16.9 pts | -14.9 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2024 | Blackbird Leys | Green | -3.5 pts | -1.4 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2024 | Hinksey Park | Conservative | -2.8 pts | -0.9 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2024 | Churchill | Liberal Democrats | +0.3 pts | -1.6 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2024 | Carfax and Jericho | Conservative | +0.9 pts | -0.9 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2024 | St Clement's | Liberal Democrats | -3.2 pts | -1.6 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2024 | Northfield Brook | Liberal Democrats | -3.1 pts | -1.6 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2024 | St Clement's | Labour | -16.2 pts | -14.9 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2024 | Headington | Conservative | -2.1 pts | -0.9 pts | -1.2 pts |
| 2024 | Churchill | Green | -0.3 pts | -1.4 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2024 | Littlemore | Liberal Democrats | -0.5 pts | -1.6 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2024 | Carfax and Jericho | Liberal Democrats | -2.5 pts | -1.6 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2024 | Temple Cowley | Liberal Democrats | -2.3 pts | -1.6 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2024 | Temple Cowley | Conservative | -0.2 pts | -0.9 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2024 | Lye Valley | Green | -2.1 pts | -1.4 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2024 | Littlemore | Green | -0.9 pts | -1.4 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2024 | Quarry and Risinghurst | Green | -1.9 pts | -1.4 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2024 | Lye Valley | Liberal Democrats | -1.3 pts | -1.6 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2024 | St Mary's | Liberal Democrats | -1.3 pts | -1.6 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2024 | Barton and Sandhills | Independent | -5.6 pts | -5.3 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2024 | Hinksey Park | Green | -1.7 pts | -1.4 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2024 | Rose Hill and Iffley | Liberal Democrats | -1.8 pts | -1.6 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2024 | Barton and Sandhills | Liberal Democrats | -1.4 pts | -1.6 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2024 | Northfield Brook | Green | -1.3 pts | -1.4 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2016 | Carfax | Green | -34.1 pts | -2.9 pts | -31.2 pts |
| 2016 | Marston | Labour | -18.3 pts | +5.8 pts | -24.1 pts |
| 2016 | Holywell | Green | -21.1 pts | -2.9 pts | -18.1 pts |
| 2016 | Holywell | Liberal Democrats | +14.0 pts | -1.2 pts | +15.3 pts |
| 2016 | Cowley Marsh | Conservative | -16.8 pts | -2.7 pts | -14.1 pts |
| 2016 | Rose Hill and Iffley | Labour | +19.6 pts | +5.8 pts | +13.8 pts |
| 2016 | Jericho And Osney | Labour | -7.8 pts | +5.8 pts | -13.6 pts |
| 2016 | Cowley | Green | +10.2 pts | -2.9 pts | +13.1 pts |
| 2016 | Carfax | Liberal Democrats | -13.9 pts | -1.2 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2016 | Jericho And Osney | Green | +8.2 pts | -2.9 pts | +11.1 pts |
| 2016 | Quarry and Risinghurst | Liberal Democrats | +9.6 pts | -1.2 pts | +10.9 pts |
| 2016 | North | Labour | +16.5 pts | +5.8 pts | +10.7 pts |
| 2016 | Barton and Sandhills | Independent | +14.0 pts | +3.4 pts | +10.6 pts |
| 2016 | Quarry and Risinghurst | Labour | -4.7 pts | +5.8 pts | -10.5 pts |
| 2016 | Barton and Sandhills | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -12.8 pts | -2.3 pts | -10.5 pts |
| 2016 | Headington | Liberal Democrats | +9.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +10.5 pts |
| 2016 | Holywell | Labour | +16.2 pts | +5.8 pts | +10.4 pts |
| 2016 | Churchill | Labour | +15.7 pts | +5.8 pts | +9.9 pts |
| 2016 | Cowley | Labour | +15.5 pts | +5.8 pts | +9.7 pts |
| 2016 | Barton and Sandhills | Labour | -3.8 pts | +5.8 pts | -9.6 pts |
| 2016 | Headington | Labour | -3.7 pts | +5.8 pts | -9.5 pts |
| 2016 | Quarry and Risinghurst | Conservative | -11.5 pts | -2.7 pts | -8.8 pts |
| 2016 | Rose Hill and Iffley | Conservative | +5.6 pts | -2.7 pts | +8.4 pts |
| 2016 | St Margaret's | Labour | -1.8 pts | +5.8 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2016 | Lye Valley | Labour | +13.3 pts | +5.8 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2016 | Marston | Conservative | -10.2 pts | -2.7 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2016 | Northfield Brook | Labour | -1.4 pts | +5.8 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2016 | St Clement's | Labour | -1.0 pts | +5.8 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2016 | Lye Valley | Green | -9.7 pts | -2.9 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2016 | Holywell | Conservative | -9.2 pts | -2.7 pts | -6.4 pts |
| 2016 | Rose Hill and Iffley | Liberal Democrats | -7.5 pts | -1.2 pts | -6.2 pts |
| 2016 | Summertown | Labour | +12.0 pts | +5.8 pts | +6.2 pts |
| 2016 | Barton and Sandhills | Green | +3.0 pts | -2.9 pts | +5.9 pts |
| 2016 | Wolvercote | Labour | -0.1 pts | +5.8 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2016 | St Mary's | Green | +2.8 pts | -2.9 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2016 | Iffley Fields | Labour | +0.2 pts | +5.8 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2016 | Churchill | Conservative | +2.8 pts | -2.7 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2016 | St Margaret's | Liberal Democrats | +4.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2016 | St Clement's | Liberal Democrats | +4.0 pts | -1.2 pts | +5.2 pts |
| 2016 | Marston | Green | -8.0 pts | -2.9 pts | -5.1 pts |
| 2016 | Cowley | Conservative | +1.9 pts | -2.7 pts | +4.6 pts |
| 2016 | Iffley Fields | Green | +1.6 pts | -2.9 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2016 | North | Liberal Democrats | -5.7 pts | -1.2 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2016 | Carfax | The Official Monster Raving Loony Party | -4.4 pts | -0.1 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2016 | Headington Hill and Northway | Liberal Democrats | +3.0 pts | -1.2 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2016 | Marston | Liberal Democrats | -5.5 pts | -1.2 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2016 | North | Green | -7.0 pts | -2.9 pts | -4.1 pts |
| 2016 | St Mary's | Labour | +1.8 pts | +5.8 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2016 | Wolvercote | Green | +0.9 pts | -2.9 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2016 | Northfield Brook | Liberal Democrats | +2.5 pts | -1.2 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2016 | St Clement's | Conservative | +0.9 pts | -2.7 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2016 | Summertown | Green | -6.5 pts | -2.9 pts | -3.5 pts |
| 2016 | Headington Hill and Northway | Conservative | +0.8 pts | -2.7 pts | +3.5 pts |
| 2016 | Blackbird Leys | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | -5.8 pts | -2.3 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2016 | Cowley Marsh | Labour | +9.2 pts | +5.8 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2016 | Cowley | Liberal Democrats | -4.7 pts | -1.2 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2016 | Hinksey Park | Conservative | +0.4 pts | -2.7 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2016 | Cowley Marsh | Green | -6.1 pts | -2.9 pts | -3.1 pts |
| 2016 | Hinksey Park | Liberal Democrats | +1.8 pts | -1.2 pts | +3.0 pts |
| 2016 | Headington Hill and Northway | Labour | +3.0 pts | +5.8 pts | -2.8 pts |
| 2016 | Barton and Sandhills | Liberal Democrats | +1.3 pts | -1.2 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2016 | Summertown | Liberal Democrats | -3.5 pts | -1.2 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2016 | Headington Hill and Northway | Green | -5.1 pts | -2.9 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2016 | Northfield Brook | Conservative | -0.6 pts | -2.7 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2016 | Blackbird Leys | Conservative | -0.6 pts | -2.7 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2016 | Jericho And Osney | Conservative | -0.6 pts | -2.7 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2016 | Iffley Fields | Conservative | -0.6 pts | -2.7 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2016 | Northfield Brook | Green | -5.0 pts | -2.9 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2016 | Hinksey Park | Green | -4.9 pts | -2.9 pts | -2.0 pts |
| 2016 | St Margaret's | Conservative | -0.9 pts | -2.7 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2016 | Wolvercote | Liberal Democrats | +0.5 pts | -1.2 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2016 | Blackbird Leys | Green | -1.2 pts | -2.9 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2016 | Jericho And Osney | Liberal Democrats | +0.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2016 | Hinksey Park | Labour | +7.3 pts | +5.8 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2016 | St Margaret's | Green | -1.5 pts | -2.9 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2016 | Wolvercote | Conservative | -1.3 pts | -2.7 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2016 | Barton and Sandhills | Conservative | -1.7 pts | -2.7 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2016 | North | Conservative | -3.8 pts | -2.7 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2016 | Lye Valley | Liberal Democrats | -0.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2016 | Blackbird Leys | Liberal Democrats | -0.3 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 2016 | Littlemore | Conservative | -1.9 pts | -2.7 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2016 | Summertown | Conservative | -2.0 pts | -2.7 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2016 | Lye Valley | Conservative | -3.5 pts | -2.7 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2016 | Churchill | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2016 | Littlemore | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2016 | Rose Hill and Iffley | Green | -2.3 pts | -2.9 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2016 | Headington | Green | -2.4 pts | -2.9 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2016 | St Mary's | Liberal Democrats | -1.8 pts | -1.2 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2016 | Littlemore | Green | -3.4 pts | -2.9 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2016 | Churchill | Green | -2.5 pts | -2.9 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2016 | Headington | Conservative | -3.1 pts | -2.7 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2016 | St Clement's | Green | -2.6 pts | -2.9 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2016 | Littlemore | Labour | +5.9 pts | +5.8 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2016 | Iffley Fields | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2016 | Blackbird Leys | Labour | +5.7 pts | +5.8 pts | -0.1 pts |
| 2016 | Cowley Marsh | Liberal Democrats | -1.2 pts | -1.2 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 2016 | St Mary's | Conservative | -2.8 pts | -2.7 pts | -0.1 pts |