Oxfordshire: wards that bucked the trend
Oxfordshire: in 2021, 95 ward results beat the expected swing and 72 trailed it. The biggest gap was Green in Wallingford (+47.9 pts actual vs +4.4 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Wallingford | Green | +47.9 pts | +4.4 pts | +43.6 pts |
| 2021 | Berinsfield and Garsington | Green | +44.5 pts | +4.4 pts | +40.1 pts |
| 2021 | Kidlington South | Green | +41.8 pts | +4.4 pts | +37.4 pts |
| 2021 | Otmoor | Liberal Democrats | +32.8 pts | +1.9 pts | +30.9 pts |
| 2021 | Benson and Cholsey | Liberal Democrats | +32.5 pts | +1.9 pts | +30.6 pts |
| 2021 | Shrivenham | Green | +33.3 pts | +4.4 pts | +28.9 pts |
| 2021 | Berinsfield and Garsington | Conservative | -35.1 pts | -6.4 pts | -28.7 pts |
| 2021 | Hendreds and Harwell | Liberal Democrats | +28.0 pts | +1.9 pts | +26.1 pts |
| 2021 | Goring | Liberal Democrats | +23.1 pts | +1.9 pts | +21.2 pts |
| 2021 | Ploughley | Conservative | +14.8 pts | -6.4 pts | +21.2 pts |
| 2021 | Didcot Ladygrove | Conservative | +14.5 pts | -6.4 pts | +20.9 pts |
| 2021 | Iffley Fields and St Mary's | Green | -15.9 pts | +4.4 pts | -20.2 pts |
| 2021 | Abingdon North | Conservative | +11.2 pts | -6.4 pts | +17.5 pts |
| 2021 | Didcot Ladygrove | Liberal Democrats | +19.2 pts | +1.9 pts | +17.3 pts |
| 2021 | Chalgrove and Watlington | Liberal Democrats | +18.3 pts | +1.9 pts | +16.5 pts |
| 2021 | Witney North and East | Conservative | -22.6 pts | -6.4 pts | -16.3 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Ruscote | Conservative | +9.9 pts | -6.4 pts | +16.2 pts |
| 2021 | Wallingford | Conservative | +8.9 pts | -6.4 pts | +15.3 pts |
| 2021 | Benson and Cholsey | Conservative | +8.9 pts | -6.4 pts | +15.2 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Calthorpe | Conservative | +8.7 pts | -6.4 pts | +15.1 pts |
| 2021 | Faringdon | Liberal Democrats | +16.6 pts | +1.9 pts | +14.7 pts |
| 2021 | Kingston and Cumnor | Liberal Democrats | +16.6 pts | +1.9 pts | +14.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bicester Town | Green | +18.2 pts | +4.4 pts | +13.9 pts |
| 2021 | Didcot East and Hagbourne | Liberal Democrats | -11.8 pts | +1.9 pts | -13.7 pts |
| 2021 | Abingdon North | Liberal Democrats | -11.8 pts | +1.9 pts | -13.6 pts |
| 2021 | Wheatley | Liberal Democrats | +15.4 pts | +1.9 pts | +13.5 pts |
| 2021 | Bicester West | Conservative | +6.6 pts | -6.4 pts | +13.0 pts |
| 2021 | Deddington | Liberal Democrats | +14.7 pts | +1.9 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2021 | Didcot West | Conservative | +6.4 pts | -6.4 pts | +12.8 pts |
| 2021 | Hanborough and Minster Lovell | Labour | -12.9 pts | -0.2 pts | -12.7 pts |
| 2021 | Didcot Ladygrove | Labour | +12.4 pts | -0.2 pts | +12.6 pts |
| 2021 | Chipping Norton | Liberal Democrats | -10.6 pts | +1.9 pts | -12.4 pts |
| 2021 | Witney South and Central | Liberal Democrats | -10.3 pts | +1.9 pts | -12.2 pts |
| 2021 | Otmoor | Conservative | -18.3 pts | -6.4 pts | -11.9 pts |
| 2021 | Witney North and East | Green | +15.9 pts | +4.4 pts | +11.5 pts |
| 2021 | Burford and Carterton North | Green | +15.7 pts | +4.4 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2021 | Kidlington South | Conservative | -17.3 pts | -6.4 pts | -11.0 pts |
| 2021 | Henley-on-Thames | Conservative | +3.8 pts | -6.4 pts | +10.1 pts |
| 2021 | Bicester West | Independent | -11.2 pts | -1.3 pts | -9.9 pts |
| 2021 | Faringdon | Conservative | -16.2 pts | -6.4 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2021 | Witney West and Bampton | Liberal Democrats | -8.0 pts | +1.9 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2021 | Thame and Chinnor | Liberal Democrats | -7.4 pts | +1.9 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2021 | Wroxton and Hook Norton | Labour | +8.8 pts | -0.2 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2021 | Chipping Norton | Labour | +8.5 pts | -0.2 pts | +8.7 pts |
| 2021 | Carterton South and West | Green | -4.3 pts | +4.4 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2021 | St Clement's and Cowley Marsh | Green | -4.1 pts | +4.4 pts | -8.4 pts |
| 2021 | Witney South and Central | Conservative | +2.0 pts | -6.4 pts | +8.3 pts |
| 2021 | Witney West and Bampton | Labour | +8.0 pts | -0.2 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 2021 | Chalgrove and Watlington | Conservative | -14.4 pts | -6.4 pts | -8.1 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Hardwick | Conservative | +1.6 pts | -6.4 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2021 | Iffley Fields and St Mary's | Conservative | +1.4 pts | -6.4 pts | +7.8 pts |
| 2021 | Rose Hill and Littlemore | Liberal Democrats | -5.8 pts | +1.9 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2021 | St Clement's and Cowley Marsh | Labour | -7.8 pts | -0.2 pts | -7.6 pts |
| 2021 | Thame and Chinnor | Green | +12.0 pts | +4.4 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2021 | Thame and Chinnor | Conservative | -13.9 pts | -6.4 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Calthorpe | Labour | +7.3 pts | -0.2 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2021 | Goring | Conservative | -13.8 pts | -6.4 pts | -7.4 pts |
| 2021 | Shrivenham | Labour | -7.4 pts | -0.2 pts | -7.2 pts |
| 2021 | Woodstock | Liberal Democrats | +9.0 pts | +1.9 pts | +7.2 pts |
| 2021 | Charlbury and Wychwood | Liberal Democrats | -5.0 pts | +1.9 pts | -6.9 pts |
| 2021 | St Margaret's | Conservative | +0.4 pts | -6.4 pts | +6.8 pts |
| 2021 | St Margaret's | Liberal Democrats | -4.8 pts | +1.9 pts | -6.7 pts |
| 2021 | Hanborough and Minster Lovell | Conservative | +0.3 pts | -6.4 pts | +6.7 pts |
| 2021 | Benson and Cholsey | Labour | +6.3 pts | -0.2 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2021 | St Clement's and Cowley Marsh | Conservative | -0.1 pts | -6.4 pts | +6.3 pts |
| 2021 | Shrivenham | Conservative | -12.4 pts | -6.4 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2021 | Eynsham | Liberal Democrats | +7.9 pts | +1.9 pts | +6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Hendreds and Harwell | Labour | -6.2 pts | -0.2 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Wheatley | Conservative | -12.3 pts | -6.4 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2021 | Hendreds and Harwell | Conservative | -12.2 pts | -6.4 pts | -5.9 pts |
| 2021 | Kirtlington and Kidlington North | Conservative | -0.5 pts | -6.4 pts | +5.8 pts |
| 2021 | Otmoor | Labour | -6.0 pts | -0.2 pts | -5.8 pts |
| 2021 | Ploughley | Labour | +5.5 pts | -0.2 pts | +5.7 pts |
| 2021 | Sonning Common | Conservative | -11.9 pts | -6.4 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2021 | Kidlington South | Labour | -5.5 pts | -0.2 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2021 | Bicester Town | Labour | -5.1 pts | -0.2 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Calthorpe | Green | +9.3 pts | +4.4 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2021 | St Clement's and Cowley Marsh | Liberal Democrats | -3.0 pts | +1.9 pts | -4.9 pts |
| 2021 | Abingdon South | Liberal Democrats | +6.6 pts | +1.9 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2021 | Didcot West | Liberal Democrats | -2.8 pts | +1.9 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2021 | Eynsham | Conservative | -1.8 pts | -6.4 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2021 | St Margaret's | Green | +8.8 pts | +4.4 pts | +4.5 pts |
| 2021 | Sonning Common | Labour | -4.6 pts | -0.2 pts | -4.4 pts |
| 2021 | Kennington and Radley | Conservative | -1.9 pts | -6.4 pts | +4.4 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Grimsbury and Castle | Conservative | -2.0 pts | -6.4 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Ruscote | Labour | -2.6 pts | +1.7 pts | -4.3 pts |
| 2021 | Charlbury and Wychwood | Conservative | -2.1 pts | -6.4 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2021 | St Margaret's | Labour | -4.4 pts | -0.2 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2021 | Wallingford | Labour | -4.4 pts | -0.2 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2021 | Deddington | Labour | +3.9 pts | -0.2 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2021 | Didcot East and Hagbourne | Labour | +3.9 pts | -0.2 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2021 | Rose Hill and Littlemore | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -6.4 pts | +4.1 pts |
| 2021 | Bicester North | Conservative | -2.3 pts | -6.4 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Hardwick | Liberal Democrats | -2.1 pts | +1.9 pts | -4.0 pts |
| 2021 | Abingdon North | Green | +0.5 pts | +4.4 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2021 | Didcot East and Hagbourne | Conservative | -2.4 pts | -6.4 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2021 | Bicester North | Liberal Democrats | -2.0 pts | +1.9 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2021 | Abingdon East | Liberal Democrats | -2.0 pts | +1.9 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2021 | Chipping Norton | Green | +8.2 pts | +4.4 pts | +3.8 pts |
| 2021 | Wroxton and Hook Norton | Conservative | -2.6 pts | -6.4 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Grove and Wantage | Green | +0.6 pts | +4.4 pts | -3.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bicester West | Liberal Democrats | +5.5 pts | +1.9 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Sutton Courtenay and Marcham | Labour | +3.4 pts | -0.2 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Hanborough and Minster Lovell | Liberal Democrats | +5.4 pts | +1.9 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2021 | Deddington | Conservative | -2.9 pts | -6.4 pts | +3.4 pts |
| 2021 | Carterton South and West | Liberal Democrats | -1.5 pts | +1.9 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Iffley Fields and St Mary's | Liberal Democrats | -1.4 pts | +1.9 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Grimsbury and Castle | Labour | +3.1 pts | -0.2 pts | +3.3 pts |
| 2021 | Charlbury and Wychwood | Labour | +2.9 pts | -0.2 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bloxham and Easington | Conservative | -3.2 pts | -6.4 pts | +3.1 pts |
| 2021 | Kennington and Radley | Green | +1.4 pts | +4.4 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2021 | Burford and Carterton North | Liberal Democrats | -1.1 pts | +1.9 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2021 | Thame and Chinnor | Labour | -3.1 pts | -0.2 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Wheatley | Labour | -3.1 pts | -0.2 pts | -2.9 pts |
| 2021 | Henley-on-Thames | Labour | +2.5 pts | -0.2 pts | +2.8 pts |
| 2021 | Goring | Labour | +2.5 pts | -0.2 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2021 | Ploughley | Green | +7.0 pts | +4.4 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2021 | Abingdon East | Conservative | -3.8 pts | -6.4 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Grimsbury and Castle | Liberal Democrats | -0.6 pts | +1.9 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Burford and Carterton North | Conservative | -3.9 pts | -6.4 pts | +2.5 pts |
| 2021 | Sutton Courtenay and Marcham | Conservative | -3.9 pts | -6.4 pts | +2.4 pts |
| 2021 | North Hinksey | Green | +1.9 pts | +4.4 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bicester North | Labour | -2.6 pts | -0.2 pts | -2.4 pts |
| 2021 | Bloxham and Easington | Liberal Democrats | +4.1 pts | +1.9 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Calthorpe | Liberal Democrats | -0.2 pts | +1.9 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2021 | North Hinksey | Conservative | -8.4 pts | -6.4 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2021 | Chipping Norton | Conservative | -4.3 pts | -6.4 pts | +2.0 pts |
| 2021 | Grove and Wantage | Conservative | -4.4 pts | -6.4 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Hanborough and Minster Lovell | Green | +6.3 pts | +4.4 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Sutton Courtenay and Marcham | Liberal Democrats | +3.8 pts | +1.9 pts | +1.9 pts |
| 2021 | Abingdon South | Conservative | -4.6 pts | -6.4 pts | +1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Ploughley | Liberal Democrats | +0.1 pts | +1.9 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Kingston and Cumnor | Labour | -2.0 pts | -0.2 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2021 | Kirtlington and Kidlington North | Labour | +1.5 pts | -0.2 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Grove and Wantage | Liberal Democrats | +3.6 pts | +1.9 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Bloxham and Easington | Labour | -1.9 pts | -0.2 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2021 | Woodstock | Conservative | -4.7 pts | -6.4 pts | +1.6 pts |
| 2021 | North Hinksey | Labour | +1.3 pts | -0.2 pts | +1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Wroxton and Hook Norton | Liberal Democrats | +0.4 pts | +1.9 pts | -1.5 pts |
| 2021 | Witney West and Bampton | Conservative | -5.0 pts | -6.4 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2021 | Witney South and Central | Green | +3.1 pts | +4.4 pts | -1.3 pts |
| 2021 | Abingdon East | Labour | +1.0 pts | -0.2 pts | +1.2 pts |
| 2021 | Kirtlington and Kidlington North | Liberal Democrats | +3.0 pts | +1.9 pts | +1.1 pts |
| 2021 | Woodstock | Labour | +0.8 pts | -0.2 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Bloxham and Easington | Green | +5.4 pts | +4.4 pts | +1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Abingdon East | Green | +3.4 pts | +4.4 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Eynsham | Labour | -1.2 pts | -0.2 pts | -1.0 pts |
| 2021 | Carterton South and West | Labour | -1.1 pts | -0.2 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2021 | Kennington and Radley | Labour | -1.0 pts | -0.2 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2021 | Abingdon North | Labour | -0.9 pts | -0.2 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Kingston and Cumnor | Conservative | -7.1 pts | -6.4 pts | -0.7 pts |
| 2021 | Chalgrove and Watlington | Labour | +0.5 pts | -0.2 pts | +0.7 pts |
| 2021 | North Hinksey | Liberal Democrats | +1.2 pts | +1.9 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Witney West and Bampton | Green | +4.9 pts | +4.4 pts | +0.6 pts |
| 2021 | Carterton South and West | Conservative | -5.8 pts | -6.4 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2021 | Grove and Wantage | Labour | +0.2 pts | -0.2 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Hardwick | Green | +4.0 pts | +4.4 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2021 | Kennington and Radley | Liberal Democrats | +1.5 pts | +1.9 pts | -0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Rose Hill and Littlemore | Green | +4.7 pts | +4.4 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Ruscote | Liberal Democrats | +2.1 pts | +1.9 pts | +0.3 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Hardwick | Labour | -0.4 pts | -0.2 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Charlbury and Wychwood | Green | +4.2 pts | +4.4 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Faringdon | Labour | -0.4 pts | -0.2 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Bicester Town | Conservative | -6.1 pts | -6.4 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Abingdon South | Labour | -0.4 pts | -0.2 pts | -0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Berinsfield and Garsington | Labour | -0.0 pts | -0.2 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2021 | Banbury Grimsbury and Castle | Green | +4.5 pts | +4.4 pts | +0.2 pts |