Pendle: wards that bucked the trend
Pendle: in 2024, 15 ward results beat the expected swing and 14 trailed it. The biggest gap was Conservative in Brierfield East and Clover Hill (+72.4 pts actual vs -4.7 pts expected).
Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.
| Year | Ward | Party | Actual swing | Expected swing | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Brierfield East and Clover Hill | Conservative | +72.4 pts | -4.7 pts | +77.1 pts |
| 2024 | Brierfield West and Reedley | Labour | -68.4 pts | -20.0 pts | -48.4 pts |
| 2024 | Waterside and Horsfield | Liberal Democrats | -32.8 pts | -0.4 pts | -32.4 pts |
| 2024 | Barrowford and Pendleside | Labour | +4.5 pts | -20.0 pts | +24.5 pts |
| 2024 | Barnoldswick | Labour | +2.1 pts | -20.0 pts | +22.1 pts |
| 2024 | Marsden and Southfield | Labour | -40.4 pts | -20.0 pts | -20.5 pts |
| 2024 | Marsden and Southfield | Conservative | -24.4 pts | -4.7 pts | -19.7 pts |
| 2024 | Boulsworth and Foulridge | Labour | -0.4 pts | -20.0 pts | +19.6 pts |
| 2024 | Whitefield and Walverden | Conservative | -23.4 pts | -4.7 pts | -18.7 pts |
| 2024 | Waterside and Horsfield | Conservative | +7.7 pts | -4.7 pts | +12.4 pts |
| 2024 | Boulsworth and Foulridge | Conservative | +6.6 pts | -4.7 pts | +11.3 pts |
| 2024 | Whitefield and Walverden | Labour | -29.3 pts | -20.0 pts | -9.3 pts |
| 2024 | Barnoldswick | Liberal Democrats | +7.1 pts | -0.4 pts | +7.5 pts |
| 2024 | Bradley | Conservative | -11.2 pts | -4.7 pts | -6.5 pts |
| 2024 | Boulsworth and Foulridge | Liberal Democrats | -5.8 pts | -0.4 pts | -5.4 pts |
| 2024 | Vivary Bridge | Green | +3.1 pts | -1.7 pts | +4.8 pts |
| 2024 | Earby and Coates | Conservative | -8.9 pts | -4.7 pts | -4.2 pts |
| 2024 | Barrowford and Pendleside | Liberal Democrats | +3.6 pts | -0.4 pts | +4.0 pts |
| 2024 | Earby and Coates | Liberal Democrats | -3.8 pts | -0.4 pts | -3.4 pts |
| 2024 | Earby and Coates | Green | -5.0 pts | -1.7 pts | -3.3 pts |
| 2024 | Brierfield West and Reedley | Conservative | -1.5 pts | -4.7 pts | +3.2 pts |
| 2024 | Barnoldswick | Conservative | -7.4 pts | -4.7 pts | -2.7 pts |
| 2024 | Vivary Bridge | Liberal Democrats | +2.3 pts | -0.4 pts | +2.7 pts |
| 2024 | Waterside and Horsfield | Green | -4.2 pts | -1.7 pts | -2.5 pts |
| 2024 | Barnoldswick | Green | +0.4 pts | -1.7 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2024 | Vivary Bridge | Conservative | -3.4 pts | -4.7 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2024 | Boulsworth and Foulridge | Green | -0.4 pts | -1.7 pts | +1.3 pts |
| 2024 | Vivary Bridge | Labour | -2.0 pts | -1.2 pts | -0.8 pts |
| 2024 | Barrowford and Pendleside | Conservative | -4.6 pts | -4.7 pts | +0.2 pts |
| 2023 | Waterside and Horsfield | Liberal Democrats | +27.5 pts | +0.3 pts | +27.2 pts |
| 2023 | Brierfield East and Clover Hill | Labour | +24.3 pts | +2.5 pts | +21.8 pts |
| 2023 | Earby and Coates | Conservative | +6.8 pts | -6.1 pts | +12.9 pts |
| 2023 | Marsden and Southfield | Conservative | +5.3 pts | -6.1 pts | +11.4 pts |
| 2023 | Brierfield East and Clover Hill | Conservative | -17.5 pts | -6.1 pts | -11.4 pts |
| 2023 | Bradley | Conservative | +4.5 pts | -6.1 pts | +10.7 pts |
| 2023 | Earby and Coates | Liberal Democrats | -8.4 pts | +0.3 pts | -8.7 pts |
| 2023 | Boulsworth and Foulridge | Conservative | +1.8 pts | -6.1 pts | +7.9 pts |
| 2023 | Whitefield and Walverden | Labour | +10.1 pts | +2.5 pts | +7.6 pts |
| 2023 | Waterside and Horsfield | Conservative | -13.7 pts | -6.1 pts | -7.5 pts |
| 2023 | Barnoldswick | Conservative | +1.1 pts | -6.1 pts | +7.3 pts |
| 2023 | Bradley | Labour | -4.5 pts | +2.5 pts | -7.0 pts |
| 2023 | Barrowford and Pendleside | Labour | -3.1 pts | +2.5 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2023 | Marsden and Southfield | Labour | -2.7 pts | +2.5 pts | -5.2 pts |
| 2023 | Waterside and Horsfield | Green | +5.8 pts | +0.8 pts | +5.0 pts |
| 2023 | Vivary Bridge | Liberal Democrats | +5.2 pts | +0.3 pts | +4.9 pts |
| 2023 | Boulsworth and Foulridge | Liberal Democrats | -4.4 pts | +0.3 pts | -4.7 pts |
| 2023 | Barnoldswick | Liberal Democrats | -2.7 pts | +0.3 pts | -3.0 pts |
| 2023 | Barnoldswick | Green | -1.4 pts | +0.8 pts | -2.1 pts |
| 2023 | Barrowford and Pendleside | Conservative | -4.0 pts | -6.1 pts | +2.1 pts |
| 2023 | Vivary Bridge | Conservative | -8.0 pts | -6.1 pts | -1.9 pts |
| 2023 | Barnoldswick | Labour | +0.8 pts | +2.5 pts | -1.7 pts |
| 2023 | Boulsworth and Foulridge | Green | -0.3 pts | +0.8 pts | -1.1 pts |
| 2023 | Vivary Bridge | Green | -0.1 pts | +0.8 pts | -0.9 pts |
| 2023 | Earby and Coates | Green | +1.6 pts | +0.8 pts | +0.8 pts |
| 2023 | Marsden and Southfield | Green | +0.1 pts | +0.8 pts | -0.6 pts |
| 2023 | Boulsworth and Foulridge | Labour | +3.0 pts | +2.5 pts | +0.5 pts |
| 2023 | Whitefield and Walverden | Conservative | -6.5 pts | -6.1 pts | -0.4 pts |
| 2018 | Whitefield | Conservative | +41.8 pts | +0.9 pts | +40.9 pts |
| 2018 | Whitefield | Labour | +39.2 pts | +7.7 pts | +31.5 pts |
| 2018 | Craven | Liberal Democrats | +21.8 pts | -4.9 pts | +26.7 pts |
| 2018 | Barrowford | Conservative | +22.0 pts | +0.9 pts | +21.1 pts |
| 2018 | Marsden | Conservative | +19.6 pts | +0.9 pts | +18.7 pts |
| 2018 | Reedley | Labour | +24.5 pts | +7.7 pts | +16.8 pts |
| 2018 | Vivary Bridge | Labour | -9.0 pts | +7.7 pts | -16.7 pts |
| 2018 | Craven | Conservative | -15.9 pts | +0.9 pts | -16.7 pts |
| 2018 | Reedley | Conservative | -15.1 pts | +0.9 pts | -15.9 pts |
| 2018 | Southfield | Conservative | -14.2 pts | +0.9 pts | -15.1 pts |
| 2018 | Walverden | Conservative | -11.6 pts | +0.9 pts | -12.5 pts |
| 2018 | Waterside | Labour | -4.6 pts | +7.7 pts | -12.3 pts |
| 2018 | Barrowford | Labour | -2.1 pts | +7.7 pts | -9.8 pts |
| 2018 | Vivary Bridge | Liberal Democrats | +4.6 pts | -4.9 pts | +9.4 pts |
| 2018 | Marsden | Labour | +16.7 pts | +7.7 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2018 | Waterside | Liberal Democrats | +4.1 pts | -4.9 pts | +9.0 pts |
| 2018 | Clover Hill | Conservative | -7.2 pts | +0.9 pts | -8.0 pts |
| 2018 | Brierfield | Labour | +0.9 pts | +7.7 pts | -6.8 pts |
| 2018 | Southfield | Labour | +14.2 pts | +7.7 pts | +6.5 pts |
| 2018 | Craven | Labour | +1.6 pts | +7.7 pts | -6.1 pts |
| 2018 | Coates | Conservative | -5.1 pts | +0.9 pts | -6.0 pts |
| 2018 | Earby | Labour | +2.1 pts | +7.7 pts | -5.6 pts |
| 2018 | Bradley | Conservative | +6.3 pts | +0.9 pts | +5.5 pts |
| 2018 | Boulsworth | Labour | +2.4 pts | +7.7 pts | -5.3 pts |
| 2018 | Earby | Liberal Democrats | -9.9 pts | -4.9 pts | -5.0 pts |
| 2018 | Coates | Labour | +12.0 pts | +7.7 pts | +4.3 pts |
| 2018 | Reedley | Liberal Democrats | -0.7 pts | -4.9 pts | +4.2 pts |
| 2018 | Walverden | Labour | +11.6 pts | +7.7 pts | +3.9 pts |
| 2018 | Coates | Green | -4.1 pts | -0.2 pts | -3.9 pts |
| 2018 | Vivary Bridge | Conservative | +4.5 pts | +0.9 pts | +3.6 pts |
| 2018 | Bradley | Labour | +5.1 pts | +7.7 pts | -2.6 pts |
| 2018 | Horsfield | Conservative | +3.5 pts | +0.9 pts | +2.6 pts |
| 2018 | Horsfield | Liberal Democrats | -7.1 pts | -4.9 pts | -2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Boulsworth | Liberal Democrats | -2.7 pts | -4.9 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Coates | Liberal Democrats | -2.7 pts | -4.9 pts | +2.2 pts |
| 2018 | Brierfield | Conservative | -0.9 pts | +0.9 pts | -1.8 pts |
| 2018 | Waterside | Green | -1.8 pts | -0.2 pts | -1.6 pts |
| 2018 | Waterside | Conservative | +2.3 pts | +0.9 pts | +1.4 pts |
| 2018 | Boulsworth | Conservative | +0.3 pts | +0.9 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Clover Hill | Labour | +7.2 pts | +7.7 pts | -0.5 pts |
| 2018 | Earby | Conservative | +1.1 pts | +0.9 pts | +0.2 pts |