Redcar & Cleveland: wards that bucked the trend

Name: Redcar & Cleveland trend-bucking wards
Creator: Psephology.AI

Redcar & Cleveland: in 2019, 31 ward results beat the expected swing and 30 trailed it. The biggest gap was Independent in Newcomen (+40.5 pts actual vs +0.9 pts expected).

Expected swing is how much a party's share moved across comparable councils in the same year. A positive gap means the party did better locally than that trend; negative means worse.

Redcar & Cleveland: ward results against the expected swing
Year	Ward	Party	Actual swing	Expected swing	Gap
2019	Newcomen	Independent	+40.5 pts	+0.9 pts	+39.6 pts
2019	Grangetown	Labour	-45.8 pts	-9.1 pts	-36.7 pts
2019	Eston	Labour	+27.0 pts	-9.1 pts	+36.1 pts
2019	South Bank	Independent	+34.3 pts	+0.9 pts	+33.4 pts
2019	Dormanstown	Liberal Democrats	-24.4 pts	+3.5 pts	-27.9 pts
2019	Newcomen	Liberal Democrats	-23.4 pts	+3.5 pts	-26.9 pts
2019	Ormesby	Liberal Democrats	+29.0 pts	+3.5 pts	+25.5 pts
2019	Hutton	Conservative	-15.0 pts	+8.8 pts	-23.9 pts
2019	Hutton	Liberal Democrats	+26.2 pts	+3.5 pts	+22.7 pts
2019	Kirkleatham	Labour	+12.1 pts	-9.1 pts	+21.2 pts
2019	South Bank	Labour	-27.4 pts	-9.1 pts	-18.3 pts
2019	Normanby	Labour	+9.0 pts	-9.1 pts	+18.1 pts
2019	Longbeck	Conservative	+26.8 pts	+8.8 pts	+18.0 pts
2019	Guisborough	Independent	+18.6 pts	+0.9 pts	+17.7 pts
2019	Saltburn	Labour	+7.0 pts	-9.1 pts	+16.1 pts
2019	Dormanstown	Labour	+6.8 pts	-9.1 pts	+15.9 pts
2019	Zetland	Labour	+6.3 pts	-9.1 pts	+15.4 pts
2019	LOFTUS	Conservative	+24.2 pts	+8.8 pts	+15.4 pts
2019	Lockwood	Conservative	-6.5 pts	+8.8 pts	-15.3 pts
2019	Saltburn	Independent	-14.2 pts	+0.9 pts	-15.1 pts
2019	Guisborough	Conservative	-5.5 pts	+8.8 pts	-14.3 pts
2019	Dormanstown	UK Independence Party (UKIP)	+12.4 pts	-1.5 pts	+13.8 pts
2019	Kirkleatham	UK Independence Party (UKIP)	+12.4 pts	-1.5 pts	+13.8 pts
2019	Coatham	Labour	+3.8 pts	-9.1 pts	+12.9 pts
2019	Zetland	Conservative	-3.1 pts	+8.8 pts	-12.0 pts
2019	LOFTUS	Labour	-20.8 pts	-9.1 pts	-11.7 pts
2019	Longbeck	Independent	-10.5 pts	+0.9 pts	-11.4 pts
2019	Ormesby	Conservative	-1.8 pts	+8.8 pts	-10.7 pts
2019	Teesville	Conservative	-1.7 pts	+8.8 pts	-10.5 pts
2019	Guisborough	Labour	-19.2 pts	-9.1 pts	-10.1 pts
2019	Longbeck	Labour	-18.5 pts	-9.1 pts	-9.4 pts
2019	Eston	Liberal Democrats	+12.1 pts	+3.5 pts	+8.6 pts
2019	Hutton	Labour	-17.7 pts	-9.1 pts	-8.6 pts
2019	Saltburn	Conservative	+17.3 pts	+8.8 pts	+8.5 pts
2019	Lockwood	Labour	-1.3 pts	-9.1 pts	+7.8 pts
2019	St Germain's	Liberal Democrats	+11.2 pts	+3.5 pts	+7.7 pts
2019	Newcomen	Labour	-16.0 pts	-9.1 pts	-6.9 pts
2019	Coatham	Independent	-5.0 pts	+0.9 pts	-5.9 pts
2019	West Dyke	Liberal Democrats	-1.8 pts	+3.5 pts	-5.3 pts
2019	Normanby	UK Independence Party (UKIP)	+3.6 pts	-1.5 pts	+5.1 pts
2019	Coatham	Liberal Democrats	+8.0 pts	+3.5 pts	+4.5 pts
2019	St Germain's	Independent	+5.3 pts	+0.9 pts	+4.4 pts
2019	Brotton	Independent	+5.2 pts	+0.9 pts	+4.3 pts
2019	LOFTUS	Independent	-3.4 pts	+0.9 pts	-4.3 pts
2019	Teesville	Labour	-5.1 pts	-9.1 pts	+4.0 pts
2019	Kirkleatham	Liberal Democrats	+7.2 pts	+3.5 pts	+3.7 pts
2019	Teesville	Independent	-2.2 pts	+0.9 pts	-3.1 pts
2019	Saltburn	Liberal Democrats	+0.4 pts	+3.5 pts	-3.1 pts
2019	Newcomen	UK Independence Party (UKIP)	-4.2 pts	-1.5 pts	-2.7 pts
2019	Ormesby	Labour	-11.6 pts	-9.1 pts	-2.5 pts
2019	Brotton	Conservative	+11.3 pts	+8.8 pts	+2.5 pts
2019	St Germain's	Conservative	+11.0 pts	+8.8 pts	+2.2 pts
2019	Brotton	Labour	-10.7 pts	-9.1 pts	-1.6 pts
2019	Zetland	Liberal Democrats	+2.6 pts	+3.5 pts	-0.9 pts
2019	Eston	Conservative	+9.7 pts	+8.8 pts	+0.9 pts
2019	West Dyke	Labour	-8.3 pts	-9.1 pts	+0.8 pts
2019	Longbeck	UK Independence Party (UKIP)	-0.8 pts	-1.5 pts	+0.7 pts
2019	St Germain's	Labour	-9.8 pts	-9.1 pts	-0.7 pts
2019	Saltburn	Green	-3.0 pts	-2.3 pts	-0.7 pts
2019	Longbeck	Liberal Democrats	+2.9 pts	+3.5 pts	-0.6 pts
2019	Normanby	Liberal Democrats	+3.0 pts	+3.5 pts	-0.5 pts